,.This is what Ukraine is reporting —
“According to the indicative estimates of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has also lost 217 tanks, 90 artillery pieces, 42 multiple launch rocket systems, 30 planes, 31 helicopters, 900 armored personnel carriers, 374 cars, and more, since it attacked Ukraine on Feb. 24.”
AND 9,000 soldiers thru this AM.
kyivindependent.com/…
“Russia has not launched cruise missiles from Black Sea ships in last few days. Of 480 total fired or dropped from aircraft, about 230 have come from inside #Ukraine, such as from mobile launchers. ~ 160 fired from Russia, ~ 70 from Belarus & ~ 10 from Black Sea #Ukraine”
Maybe their ships sunk. Would not surprise me given the state of their navy — if you want to call it a navy..
Now —
Russia says they lost 500 soldiers KIA. This intercept shows they lost 200 soldiers dead in this one little piece of the fight — What a fucking joke.
Pick your reality here.
Really to me — Russia does not control the air — straight up. Our estimates were when this started was they were going to concentrate about 500 fighters, fighter bombers, heavy and medium bombers there. Ukraine had about 90 planes total and some number of old S-300 AA batteries available. Ukraine should not even have air defenses at this point — and yet they do. Further — if that number of downed Russian jets they report is correct then they would have that X 2 in heavily damaged planes.
SO 6% down and 12% heavy damaged. You know? As in they are fucked.
The other thing about this —NATO countries, pretty specifically stated they would — and by type of aircraft — be sending their old USSR stuff. Mostly MIG 29s and SU 25s. This gets reported — then it gets reported they were being ferried over in like an hour or something — then later it gets reported that they are not sending them — now reported they might be sending them. Understand — none of that is reliable — not a thing. Russia has no idea if we did or not — maybe that was the point.
And they sure as hell don’t know what arms we really sent them.
It is interesting to me — yesterday when that convoy Russia was trying to get to Kyiv stalled they were being strafed with some SU 25s ( their version of an A-10). That column was drawn into about 17 miles of the city — a static target within artillery range. It is surely getting picked apart as we speak.
If there does end up being a big air battle there — it already started and will play out over the next few days I think. I am sure betting on Ukraine here. And that there will be a hell of a lot of dead people.
It is a tactic — in a fight — that what you do is lead your opponent to believe they will encounter X force — when in reality you hit back with a greater force. They are then off guard and have to continually adjust — and every time they do — you keep upping your force strength. It happens a lot in war. For example, that is how Bufford stymied the rebel attack at Gettysburg on the first day for some key time. It is an old tactic, really. That move he made likely won that battle in the end. Arguably.
It is like an economy of battle thing — that you would use only the force you calculate as necessary — so you just screw up the calculus of the thing. This goes back to Thucydides, Archimedes — it is a very old strategy — that when you implode even the ability to do war (talking about finances really) you implode the war. They were speaking to economy of battle. Why you would invest as little as possible to win. One apparently Putin does not understand. He is bad at war.
He actually believes his own bullshit. Amazing.
Ukraine is going to kick his ass. They clearly do know how it works. They should not have to die here.
You really should just surrender now Vlad — maybe they will give you terms. You lost this or are about to, Because you really are just as stupid as you appear. The whole world sees — your army is a fucking joke.
Oh — how come you did not even manage to take Odessa yet? A little late now genius. He did not even get that right. The key port(s) on the mouth of the Dnieper river into the sea — talking really dumb.
He is a fuck-up.. No doubt in my mind.
All just imho..
Yippee ki yay.