I once wrote a story titled, “Let's talk some more about logistics. It's the reason Russia is losing this war.” But that was one week into the war. Now that we’re more than a month in, I’ve changed my mind. Logistics have certainly hindered Russia’s war effort, but it’s just a reason Russia is losing, not the reason. And even if it had the best logistical system in modern warfare, Russia would still be losing.
Let’s look at the map:
The first thing you might notice is how little penetration Russia has had into Ukraine’s interior. All those red areas, except for the south (and its wide open terrain with few rivers), hug its territory. It’s hard to talk about supply lines when we’re talking supply lines in the dozens of kilometers, not hundreds. But what’s worse is that Russia has been unable to capture any of the cities on its actual border—Chernihiv (pop. 285,000), Sumy (pop. 265,000), and Kharkiv (pop. 1.4 million). Imagine if the United States invaded Mexico, and it was unable to immediately capture Nogales (pop. 261,000) or Cuidad Juarez (pop. 1.5 million).
Chernihiv is around 100 kilometers (~60 miles) from the Russian border, and closer yet to Belarus. Sumy is 50 kilometers (30 miles) from Russia, and Kharkiv is around 22 kilometers away (16 miles). Those are distances that military vehicles can travel on a single tank of gas. We’re not talking extended lines, like the 300-400 miles American forces moved to get from Kuwait to Baghdad during the Iraq War. Russian artillery can literally sit on Russian soil and bombard Sumy and Kharkiv, and yet they’ve failed to make much headway.
Let’s zoom in on those last two cities:
That orange blob south of Sumy is mostly clear, the result of Ukraine’s stunning victory against the supposedly “elite” 4th Guards Tank Division (GTD). Other than a single village between Sumy and the border, Yunakivka (pop. 1,740), Russia has been unable to take any other settlements. That red territory remains by virtue of the fact that Ukraine has zero reason to push out any Russian troops camped out there (if any).
North of Kharkiv, Russia holds three small settlements, but the situation is the same—Russia “holds” territory between its border and the city, but has had trouble pushing into a city that is 74% Russian-speaking, and presumably had higher pre-invasion affinities toward Russia. Yet every time Russia attempts a move in the area, they get spanked. Like yesterday:
Malaya Rohan? Did J.R.R.Tolkien get all his names from Ukraine? There’s video:
A battalion tactical group (BTG) is 10 tanks and 40 armored personnel carriers (APC). A BTG is considered “destroyed” if it loses three tanks or 13 APCs; the remnants would then need to be removed from the field of battle for reconstitution in the rear with reinforcements. (I suspect that “combined BTG” in the tweet above is exactly that, a bunch of smashed BTGs smushed together into a new one.)
We see four destroyed vehicles in that video, so hardly enough to destroy a single BTG, much less three. But we don’t know how many other losses those units suffered in the past few weeks, nor do we have a complete picture of Russia’s actual losses beyond this one single video. We are still seeing additional pictures of losses suffered by the 4th GTD emerge days after their epic rout.
Regardless of whether Ukraine exaggerated Russian losses or not, this tells us that 1) Russia is still unable to secure key supply lines south and east of Kharkiv, and 2) Ukraine has the maneuver capability to extend out from the city to wreak havoc on any approaching marauders. And all of this is happening just kilometers from Russia’s border. Even worse, check out what’s across the border from Kharkiv:
Belgorod, Russia, is home to several large Russian army units. They didn’t even need to travel from elsewhere in Russia. This is home base! Belgorod also hosts a major railhead, with direct connection to Moscow, and an international airport. And it is located just 80 kilometers (50 miles) away from Kharkiv. That’s the distance to a forward deployment, not something any competent military would sweat resupplying.
Russia’s military failures in this border region can’t be blamed on logistics. This was supposed to be the easy part of their lightning invasion. Ukraine had prepared its armed forces to transition into between four and six soldier teams of guerrilla partisans, to harass Russia’s rear while Ukraine desperately held on to the western half of the country. Instead, one month in, Russia can’t even manage to take cities on its own border.
P.S. Speaking of Belgorod, this happened two nights ago:
Munitions were set off at Russia’s military base in town, reportedly killing four soldiers. Russia blamed artillery shelling from Ukraine, across the border, before changing their story and blaming an accident. (The latter is the most plausible explanation, which is still what I think took down that landing ship in Berdyansk port.)
Wednesday, Mar 30, 2022 · 9:15:21 PM +00:00 · kos
Amazingly good news:
This town is south of Chernihiv, in formerly Russian-held territory:
Ukraine is breaking the siege of Chernihiv.
And adding, Russia will claim they are pulling out, but that burning tank says otherwise. They are being pushed out.