Years of mine-clearing and building/infrastructure construction beckons as major combat activity is ahead in the east. Mariupol may finally fall to carpet bombing of the remaining hold-outs. Disinformation is strong as the limits of media control are being tested. Finland now trolls Russia with its tractors.
"Taking into account the catastrophic situation that has developed at the Azovstal metallurgical plant, as well as being guided by purely humane principles, the Russian Armed Forces offer the militants of nationalist battalions and foreign mercenaries from 06:00 (Moscow time) on April 17, 2022, to stop any hostilities and lay down their arms," the defence ministry said in a statement. "All who lay down their arms are guaranteed that their lives will be spared." Under the terms of deal proposed by Russia on Saturday, the remaining defenders in the Azovstal plant would leave between 6 a.m. and 1 p.m. Moscow time, without weapons or ammunition. www.reuters.com/...
- Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate supporting efforts);
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv and Izyum;
- Supporting effort 2—Southern axis;
- Supporting effort 3—Sumy and northeastern Ukraine.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate main effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian forces continued their slow advance through Mariupol on April 16. Elements of Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces arrived at the central Mariupol beach from the north.[2] Fighting continued in central Mariupol itself.[3] Russian forces entered the base of the Ukrainian National Guard’s 12th Operations Brigade and DNR forces seized a police station in central Mariupol relatively close to the beach.[4] Ukrainian forces continued to defend in pockets but especially in the Azovstal plant, which Russian and proxy forces continued attacking heavily.[5] The Russians' use of Tu-22M Backfire bombers to attack to Azovstal plant may suggest that they intend to end the battle soon by devastating the remaining defenders with firepower.[6]
Ukrainian advisor to the mayor of Mariupol Petro Andryushenko claimed that DNR head Denis Pushilin opened an office of the United Russia party in Mariupol on April 15.[7] This action likely indicates that the DNR is preparing to begin governing Mariupol (or what remains of it) soon. Andryushenko further claimed that Russian “filtration” measures are reaching a crescendo in Mariupol and that the Russians have announced a complete lockdown of the city on Monday, April 18, to allow them to complete the “filtration” process.[8] The Battle of Mariupol and the fight in Donbas generally have cost the Russians and proxies dearly, however. Social media confirmed that the funeral of the deputy commander of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army, Major General Vladimir Petrovich Frolov, was held on April 16.[9]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv and Izyum: (Russian objective: Advance southeast to support Russian operations in Luhansk Oblast, and fix Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv in place)
Russian forces continued their build-up in and around Izyum over the last 24 hours, including deploying elements of units that had fought around Kyiv into the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the 6th and 20th Combined Arms Armies as well as of the 1st Guards Tank Army that had been operating in the Kharkiv and eastern Ukraine area for some time were being reinforced by elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and the 106th Airborne Division, all of which fought and suffered heavy losses around Kyiv.[13] The General Staff claimed that elements of the 68th Army Corps of the Eastern Military District were also operating in eastern Ukraine. The forces of the 68th Corps likely came from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle brigade, based on Sakhalin Island.[14] Those troops likely have not previously participated in the fighting in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that their scheduled rotation into Syria was canceled to facilitate their entry into the war.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff claims that Russian forces have amassed as many as 22 BTGs around Izyum for operations toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove.[16]
The Finland-Russia border is 830 miles long. After Ukraine, Finland is the only European country that has a border with Russia and is not a member of NATO.