Combat continues as Russians attempt to consolidate control in the Donbas. Close air support continues for the Russian offensive in the east. 120 new US special operations drones, called Phoenix Ghost have been customized for Ukraine deployment, likely with target and region specific calibration. Civilian evacuation from Mariupol happened even as defenders insist on not surrendering.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia claimed victory in Mariupol on Thursday despite persistent fighting there, publicly calling off an assault on the final Ukrainian stronghold in the devastated city in a stark display of the Kremlin’s desire to present a success to the Russian public.
Mr. Putin ordered his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, in a choreographed meeting shown on Russian television, not to storm the sprawling, fortress-like Azovstal steel mill complex where 2,000 Ukrainian fighters were said to be holed up, and instead to blockade the plant “so that a fly can’t get through.”
[...]
The fight for Mariupol carries enormous significance for both sides. It is the last pocket of serious resistance in the land bridge the Kremlin has created between territory it already holds in the Donbas region in the east and the Crimean Peninsula in the south. It is also home to much of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion, filled with far-right fighters who give a sheen of credibility to Mr. Putin’s false claim that Ukraine is run by Nazis and that he is “denazifying” the country.
www.nytimes.com/...
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Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate supporting efforts);
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Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv and Izyum;
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Supporting effort 2—Southern axis;
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Supporting effort 3—Sumy and northeastern Ukraine.
Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin’s declaration of victory in Mariupol is unlikely to enable the deployment of significant combat power to reinforce offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
- Russian forces involved in the battle of Mariupol are likely heavily damaged and Ukrainian forces succeeded in tying down and degrading a substantial Russian force.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine but made only marginal gains.
- Ukrainian forces continued to halt Russian attacks around Izyum.
#Russia is still attempting to encircle
#Severodonetsk by taking the routes into the city from the NE and then using the Donets River to block SW. Our assessment is that RUAF wants to force the UAF into a pocket similar to the blue in the map below. Red is current front lines.
#Ukrainian governor of
#Luhansk Oblast confirmed today that around half of
#Popasna is controlled by
#Russia but UAF is still contesting the city. RUAF has likely taken the city center but only barely. No discernible changes in the city today, only new confirmations of control.
Around
#Izyum, neither
#Ukraine or
#Russia engaged in offensive actions. The
#Russians have made very limited gains in this area but have taken high casualties from
#Ukraine Armed Forces. RUAF continues to shell UAF positions with artillery and vice versa.
Around
#Torske and
#Kreminna,
#Russia continued to struggle to break out towards
#Zarichne. Although it appears that RUAF may have established a foothold across the Zherebets River,
#UAF continues to make their progress slow and costly.
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Newly surfaced images of a sprawling mass grave near Mariupol underscored the scope of the devastation in the besieged port city, where on Thursday just a few thousand Ukrainians were holding out against a Russian bombardment, refusing repeated demands to surrender, as President Biden promised Kyiv an additional $800 million in military assistance and said the war was entering “a critical window.”
Ukrainian officials estimate that 20,000 civilians have died in Mariupol since the invasion began, and they said the new gravesite appears to be significantly larger than the plots discovered after Russian troops retreated from the Kyiv suburb of Bucha. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the offensive in Mariupol a success and ordered a blockade of the steel plant where Ukrainian fighters are staging their last stand.
The latest round of U.S. military aid comes at a crucial time, with Ukraine continuing to battle a renewed Russian assault in the Donbas region in the east. The package, which represents a marked increase in U.S. shipments of artillery, will include nearly 150,000 rounds of ammunition and more than 120 drones, defense officials said.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
Donbas region: Russian forces have made “minor gains” in eastern Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War assessed Wednesday. On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised his troops in Mariupol, saying they “sacrificed their lives so that our people in Donbas live in peace and to enable Russia, our country, to live in peace.”
Kharkiv region: Ukrainian forces continued to halt Russian attacks around Izyum. Local officials have raised concerns this gateway city to the Donbas region will suffer a similar fate to Bucha — where hundreds of civilians were killed and buried in mass graves or left in the streets. At a Thursday World Bank ministerial meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said “It is equally dangerous both in the center of Kharkiv and on the outskirts. You can die from Russian shelling everywhere.”
www.washingtonpost.com/...
The Phoenix Ghost is similar to the Switchblade unmanned systems previously delivered to Ukraine, the official said, in that it is a “one way drone” that is “clearly designed to give a punch” to a number of different types of targets. This likely means that Phoenix Ghost is a low-cost, single-use suicide drone that behaves like a loitering munition — flying around an airspace before ramming itself into a target.
[...]
The bespoke new Phoenix Ghost drone is only one part of the latest $800 million arms package announced by President Joe Biden today. Also included are:
- 72 155mm Howitzers and 144,000 artillery rounds
- 72 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers
- Field equipment and spare parts
The Biden administration has provided about $3.4 billion in security assistance for Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began on Feb. 24. The latest round of Howitzers, combined with an earlier package from April 13, “provides enough artillery systems to equip five battalions,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
breakingdefense.com/...
- The first point is that in the eighth week of this war the Russian Air Force (VKS) still shows no sign of running a campaign to gain air superiority. Given the advantages it has in the 'physical component' of air combat power this is truly remarkable. So it probably cannot. 2/11
- And that means that the Russian army cannot discount air attack at any time, and UKR can plan to make use of the air environment. This could prove to be the factor that tips the balance in effective overall combat power, and it arises... 3/11
- ...because the UKR armed forces are clearly leading in the 'conceptual component' of air combat power. They have worked out how to take a massive inferiority in numbers and turn that around by fighting smarter. There are lessons here in Air C2 for all air forces. 4/11
- Even, perhaps especially, the dominant ones of high-tech NATO. These have got used to rolling out air dominance since Gulf War 1. Maybe they will always be able to. But repeating a well worn tactical process - albeit a complicated one - has replaced 'Air Generalship'. 5/11
- Few senior Western airman have had to work out from scratch how to use air power capabilities in less favourable circumstances to achieve campaign aims. In contrast, @KpsZSU has had to think around the problem. 6/11
- What they seem to have done is used intelligence to selectively attack Russian air raids. These appear to have been relatively effective in kill ratios - but the UKR 'air force' has also achieved many kills from MANPADS missiles, and even artillery shelling airfields. 7/11
- Or Bayrakter TB2 v RUS SAMs. This implies good coordination between Air and Land air defence assets. Which RUS has not achieved. Together, this UKR air defence system has achieved a huge 'soft kill' in deterring VKS raids; rarely now do they cross the FLOT. 8/11
- In the space created UKR has learnt to use modern, novel tactics of drones and loitering munitions to act as 'poor mans air superiority'. This is not, yet, in the NATO air forces play book. And I would hazard a guess that NATO army/air force coord is not as good. 9/11
- So I conclude that NATO air forces should humbly approach @KpsZSU and offer to share a mission exploitation exercise to find out what worked, what didn't and why. NATO air power has become very good at one thing. It should think on what UKR's Air Generals might teach them. 10/11
- But in the meantime UKR's ability to prosecute the war successfully relies on it being able to use the air when and how it wants. We need to do listen to them telling us what they now need, and make sure they have plenty of it in order to prevail. 11/11
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How the heck is Russia supposed to break through Ukrainian lines with fewer tanks, especially once the Ukrainians get all this new artillery and UAVs? It’s impossible to see happening unless the Russians can gain air dominance.
Otherwise it’s hard to see the Russians being any more successful during the Battle of the Donbas than they were during the battle of Kyiv.
The Ukrainian military has shown itself to me more motivated, intelligent, resilient and adaptable than the Russians when the Russians had large advantage in equipment numbers. Now that this Russian advantage is wasting away, I wouldn’t want to be a Russian soldier.
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