The RF has reportedly taken the villages of Dibovne and Kurul’ka.
Is this really the only way they can punch out of the Izyum salient? If you look at the map, these are tiny settlements that the UKR can evacuate with one school bus.. if there’s anyone left to evacuate. They both are in a dry river valley with no paved roads that leads to… nowhere. The RF could drive south and cut the road that leads from Barvinkove to Slovyansk. But this road is hardly a vital resupply route. There is a double tracked main line railroad that parallels. But odds are that it is already cut. If the Russians knew what they were doing. So this whole push seems to be folly, as it extends their supply route down a longer and more vulnerable area. To get to the village of Dibrovne, there RF has to travel over open ground exposed on both sides… in mud season. It almost seems the UKR is daring them to try that route just so they can burn up more troops and material.
If you look at the title map you will notice that the front lines on both sides run along ridges that UKR controls. Every step south the RF takes is a chance for the ZSU to take aim. Once they crest the ridge and get to Dibrovne they are following a valley that becomes a trap. The closer they get to that east west road the more the terrain looks like this.
Right now, the ZSU are holding on to the last village in this valley, Pashkove. I wouldn’t be surprised if they haven’t been using this time to set up mobile batteries and Javelins on both sides of the valley. What are the odds of us seeing pictures of burning armor in the next day or so?
Second, the RF is reportedly trying to secure their flank in Izyum by taking the road hub at Oskil. This would give them another road to resupply Izyum. But the bridge over the Oskil River is just below a large dam with a 25 mile long lake behind it.
This photo is taken from the south side of the river, which the ZSU still controls for the moment. The RF is going to lose some paint trying to take this place. The ZSU could blow the bridge and be done with it.
But what are the odds that the UKR blows the dam if they have to retreat? That would take out the road, plus flood the entire Siverskyi Donets River valley from there all the way to Rubizhne, turning it into a quagmire. And it happens to be along the whole of the 60 mile long front, exactly where the RF is trying to push through.
Yes, it would make resupplying the towns of Lyman and Zarichne are difficult. The RF has been trying to punch through there too, with little forward progress. But the sizable bridge of T0514 over the Siverskyi Donets River from Slovyansk leading to Lyman would take it. This would make the whole front less palateable to the RF or it could lead to yet another attempt for the RF to smash their head against a brick wall.
The more I look at what is happening in these battles, the more I grow to respect the brave forces of Ukraine. To stand up to the supposed might of a lying, murderous dictator who is threatening the entire idea of Democracy should be an absolute inspiration to us all. And to do it with their own soldiers lives being held in high regard shows just how much they care. My soul hurts for every life lost in this tragedy. If it was up to me not one young Russian or Ukrainian would lose their future over the the idea that Russia can take whatever it wants and regain it’s former glory.
How about victory parades in every major American city when this is all over? That would be enough for Tucker Carlson to blow a gasket.
Tuesday, Apr 26, 2022 · 8:58:30 PM +00:00
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sandbear75
Mark Sumner has updated that the drive south to Pashkove has stalled. Gee, I wonder why. Instead they are pushing armor down the T2122 road southwest to Barvinkove. This road tracks along the high ground. By the look of the video he posted the road is one complete mess! Maybe that’s why the RF has been unable to make any headway in the last week or so. The sun is out and the muck is drying. It’s possible that armor can play cat and mouse all the way to town but by the photos of the area, there are plenty of places to ambush them out in the open. Let’s hope this is just one more waste of metal on the RF’s part.