Ukraine update: Russia's real losses may be greater than even Ukraine believes

As of Tuesday morning, Oryx had cataloged more than 2,400 major piece of military equipment lost by the Russian armed forces, including some 400 tanks and 52 aircraft. These are confirmed losses verified by videos and photos that show distinct features—such as tail numbers on aircraft—that make sure each vehicle counted is unique.

However, that’s a long way from what the Ukrainian military says Russia has lost since the beginning of the invasion. They record over 200 more tanks, and nearly ten times as many aircraft in total (planes, helicopters, and UAVs). 

Russian losses as reported by the Ukrainian ministry of defense (colors modified)

The Defense Ministry also keeps a running total on something that Oryx and other sites cataloging lost hardware don’t touch: casualties. Russia, in the few occasions that it has given any count at all, has reported numbers that range from a fraction of those reported by Ukraine, to a ludicrously small fraction. Intelligence agencies in the U.S. and U.K. have also issued some sporadic casualty figures, with numbers that seem closer to—but still significantly lower—than those posted by Ukraine.

So who’s right? It’s quite likely that Russia doesn’t have an accurate count of their losses, even if they had any incentive to give it. It’s also generally assumed that the number from Ukraine overstates the results to make Russia look weaker and their own military more successful.

However, professor and author Phillips O’Brien suggests that Ukraine’s numbers, though they seem inflated, might be the most accurate of all those floating around. That’s because we have something in this war that hasn’t been available in other conflicts—open-source intelligence in the form of all those photos, videos, and messages captured by phones. While those images are the basis of the numbers reported by OSInt and Oryx, O’Brien points out that these numbers represent the absolute minimum for Russian losses. And the evidence of the last few days shows us just how badly these values can undershoot the truth.

“There would be a large number of Russian losses not recorded,” writes O’Brien. That would include any losses that took place inside territory that’s nominally under Russian control. A Russian jet that limps back to Belarus, or tumbles to the ground in Russian-controlled areas of Donetsk, is not going immediately get cataloged by social media. A tank that’s dead, but still in a Russian-occupied village, isn’t going to make it on OSInt.

It might seem that Russian losses behind Russian lines would be relatively minor compared to the vehicles left smoking along the roadside. But that’s only true when we can see those roads. War reporter Oz Katerji recorded more than 50 damaged or destroyed vehicles on a single walk up the highway along which Russian forces retreated from Kyiv. None of them were known before the last three days.

O’Brien has one word to describe the number of losses that are going unseen: Huge. 

“For those behind Russian lines, we can now assume [losses] to be a very large number. Since the Russians pulled back from Kyiv, the database has been updated with approximately 50 new entries. Yet the Kyiv front only contained approximately 30% of Russian forces.” 

Most of the vehicles being noted after Russia left Kyiv aren’t losses they suffered during retreat. Many are vehicles lost during the initial advance, or in days of exchanging fire with Ukrainian forces. They’re only new in the sense that, like the awful scenes of carnage in Bucha, they couldn’t be clearly noted until Russian forces left the area. 

If Russian losses in other areas are any any way equivalent to those around Kyiv, then the numbers from the Ukrainian ministry of defense might actually be conservative.

---

DAILY KOS READERS HAVE NOW RAISED OVER $2.1 MILLION TO ASSIST UKRAINIAN REFUGEES!

THANK YOU

Tuesday, Apr 5, 2022 · 11:31:33 PM +00:00 · Barbara Morrill

Continuing coverage can be found here.

Tuesday, Apr 5, 2022 · 8:54:38 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner

Based on public sources, Russia has 14,145 actual tanks. That’s all the varieties of T-72, T-80, and T-90 combined, and it certainly sounds like a lot. However, 11,200 of these tanks are listed as “in storage,” with only 2,945 listed as being “active.”

Considering the quality of the maintenance on the active tanks. it’s not clear how many of the stored tanks are still usable, and how many are hulks that have been picked over for spare parts. Russia may be able to roll out another 2,000 active tanks next week. Or not.

But what’s interesting is this: Intelligence estimates of how many Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine put that number at around 1,200. That means that, as verified by Oryx, over a third of those tanks are now either destroyed or in Ukrainian hands. If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is right on their numbers, Russia has lost over half the tanks it sent to Ukraine. 

Those are the levels of losses that no military, anywhere, can sustain.

Tuesday, Apr 5, 2022 · 10:56:06 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner

A little excursion into history …

On July 12, 1942, 500 Soviet tanks, primarily T-34s, charged headlong at roughly 300 German Panzer IV tanks that were part of the II SS-Panzer Corps near a place called Prokhorovka, which is in Belgorod Oblast, right across the border from Kharkiv, Ukraine.

On paper, the two types of tanks were well-matched. Both weight about 25 tons, both carried 75mm cannons. The Russian tanks had more powerful engines, which theoretically made them not just faster, but more capable of maintaining speed in tough conditions, and quicker to move in or out off good positions for attack. Both sides were backed by self-propelled artillery and tank destroyers. 

Despite the greater numbers on the Soviet side, and arguably better tanks, the Germans were more experienced and had better officers. By the end of the day, Russia has lost at least 400 tanks. At least 300 of these were “irrevocably lost.”

Even so, Prokhorovka was a Soviet victory, in the sense that the Germans, short of fuel and ammo and just physically exhausted, had to withdraw without securing their advance. The Soviets won the day—at terrible cost.

Prokhorovka was arguably the greatest loss of armor in Soviet, or Russian, history. Until the Battle for Kyiv.

Because if the last month is considered as one prolonged battle, not only did Russia lose more tanks, it also lost the battle.

Tuesday, Apr 5, 2022 · 11:22:58 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner

Military Land has their summary of Day 41 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

✍️The 41st day of Russian Invasion - summary of situation on all frontlines, including maps. Available on https://t.co/8DH14wL0yX #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion #UkraineRussiaWar #maps

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) April 5, 2022

The Donbass

• Ukrainian troops ambushed Russian convoy moving toward Barvinkove
• Russian troops have reached Sulyhivka and Dovhenke, but  may not control the towns.
• Russian troops have reached a train depot in the center of Popasna, but fighting in the town continues.
• Heavy fighting reported at Rubizhne and Lysychansk. 

Mariupol

• Ukrainian 503rd Marines denied reports that they have surrendered.

Several of these sites are fairly close together, but to give a rough idea of where events are happening, especially in the Donbas area …

Russian forces are clearly trying to break out from north and south