Today’s shooting in Buffalo is not dissimilar to shootings where the killer travelled to a distant community to wreak racist violence. “Great Replacement” is not a theory as much as it is the same racist paranoia from every earlier century. Demography is destiny, but hatred is not. Like the eco-fascism of Lebensborn, in actual reality you don’t get to have your own facts because destroying any hypothesized ‘civilization’ at this moment in history destroys all human civilization.
Ten people were killed and three others wounded when a gunman opened fire at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York, in what authorities described as a “racially motivated hate crime.” The massacre took place Saturday afternoon at a Tops supermarket in a largely Black neighborhood. According to police, the suspect—an 18-year-old white male—drove from “hours away” to carry out the attack, which he livestreamed on the internet. Police said the suspect was heavily armed and was wearing tactical gear. The shooter was taken into custody and was expected to be arraigned as early as Saturday evening.
At a law enforcement news conference Saturday, an FBI official said the bureau was investigating the attack as both a hate crime and as “racially motivated violent extremism.”
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He said that “conservatism is dead” and that progressives’ advocacy for equality was wrong because, he claimed, the average Black man had a lower IQ than a white man.
J.J. MacNab, a researcher at George Washington University program on extremism, studied the 106-page manifesto allegedly posted by the shooter.
"He self identifies as a white supremacist fascist with Neo-Nazi beliefs who is anti "high fertility immigrants" under the white replacement theory. There are several 4chan markers," she explained. "He states that he was radicalized online on 4chan and was inspired by Brenton Tarrant's manifesto and livestreamed mass shooting in New Zealand."
Anti-racism educator Tim Wise says those who push racist conspiracy theories are to blame for the inevitable violence that ensues.
"The Buffalo shooter's manifesto rants about immigration & white birthrates, both of which feature prominently in mainstream conservative & MAGA rhetoric. And he embraces an explicitly accelerationist rationale for violence...hoping to cause further strife and societal collapse... Those who spread these ideas are to blame, not just the ones who pull the trigger," he explained. "There is nowhere else replacement theory rhetoric and logic can lead except for violence. It is inevitable..."
"Another white supremacist terrorist has committed mass murder, inspired by the 'great replacement' thinking pushed regularly by Tucker Carlson and others on the right. Blood is on their hands, 100%," Wise said. "The white supremacist groups peddling this sh*t like the Groyper/Nick Fuentes/America First bigots, need to be sued out of existence for inspiring this terrorism. Vicarious liability. End them."
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Once largely relegated to white supremacist rhetoric, “The Great Replacement” has made its way into mainstream consciousness in the past several years. From the chants of “Jews Will Not Replace Us” on the University of Virginia campus to then-U.S. Rep. Steve King’s tweeted protest, “We can’t restore our civilization with somebody else’s babies,” to Fox News’ Tucker Carlson’s complaints that the Democratic party is attempting to “replace the current electorate” with “third-world voters,” the racist conspiracy theory has well and truly arrived.
The following provides an introduction to “The Great Replacement:” Where it began, how it feeds into white supremacist grievances and which “mainstream” personalities have used it to score points and signal (not so subtly) their nativist point of view.
Origin Story
- “The Great Replacement” theory has its roots in early 20th century French nationalism and books by French nationalist and author Maurice Barres. However, it was French writer and critic Renaud Camus who popularized the phrase for today’s audiences when he published an essay titled "Le Grand Remplacement," or "the great replacement," in 2011. Camus himself alluded to the “great replacement theory” in his earlier works and was apparently influenced by Jean Raspail’s racist novel, The Camp of the Saints.
- Camus believes that native white Europeans are being replaced in their countries by non-white immigrants from Africa and the Middle East, and the end result will be the extinction of the white race.
- Camus focused on Muslim immigration to Europe and the theory that Muslims and other non-white populations had a much higher birth rate than whites. His initial concept did not focus on Jews and was not antisemitic.
- The “great replacement” philosophy was quickly adopted and promoted by the white supremacist movement, as it fit into their conspiracy theory about the impending destruction of the white race, also know as “white genocide.” It is also a strong echo of the white supremacist rallying cry, “the 14 words:” “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.”
- Since many white supremacists, particularly those in the United States, blame Jews for non-white immigration to the U.S. the replacement theory is now associated with antisemitism.
- The night before the August 2017 the Unite the Right rally, white supremacists, marching across the University of Virginia campus, shouted, “Jews will not replace us,” and “You will not replace us,” clear references to Camus’ theory.
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Nearly half of the world's population in 2000 lived in countries with fertility rates at or below replacement level, and nearly all countries will reach low fertility levels in the next two decades. Concerns about low fertility, fertility that is well below replacement, are widespread. But there are both persistent rationales for having children and institutional adjustments that can make the widespread intentions for two children attainable, even in increasingly individualistic and egalitarian societies. …. In sum, even “large families” in the twenty-first century will be small. Nevertheless, motivations and rationales for first, second, and (sometimes) third children remain relevant in modern contexts. Ideological change, psychological needs, and biological predispositions buttress these motivations and rationales….At the global level, population growth will slow over the next few decades because of increasingly pervasive low fertility. For those of us attracted to demography by neo-Malthusian concerns and who still believe that there are limits to human population growth, how can this be seen as anything but good news? It is clearly good news compared with the forecasts that primed the interests of many contemporary demographers. Continued attention to this decline and efforts to assure it are crucial. Besides, it was naive to think that fertility would magically stabilize exactly at replacement levels. Thinking globally, I prefer the current low-fertility problem to fertility at 2.5 or 3 births per woman, at least for the first half of the twenty-first century. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/...
The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the country. A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population, resulting in relative stability.
This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age.
America's average fertility rate is 2.06 births per woman. While that is slightly below what demographers call the "replacement level," it is higher than China's and much higher than Japan's or that of most European countries.
