This morning, Russian troops are once again gathering along the border of northern Ukraine. That includes forces massing in Russia near Sumy, and more gathering in Belarus near Chernihiv. This is likely nothing more than an attempt to distract Ukrainian forces fighting near Kharkiv and in the east, but it comes at a time when those Ukrainian forces appear to be pushed to their limits.
Back in March, before the collapse of Russian efforts to take Kyiv, both cities were nearly encircled by Russian forces and the nearby highways became salients reaching toward the Ukrainian capital.
But both cities were staunchly defended. As the Battle of Kyiv turned into a solid defeat for Russia, those forces scrambled to get out, and some of those who had proceeded down highways to the west were cut off and chopped up at villages along the way. By late March, Russia’s hold on the areas around all of these cities was looking tenuous. Days later, it began to collapse in earnest with Ukrainian forces surging out from multiple locations—like knights sallying forth from a castle—to break the Russian lines and scatter their ranks. By April 3, Russian forces were all but gone from this map, with Russian-occupied villages still existing only in the area around Kharkiv.
It was, perhaps, the greatest moment of the invasion from the Ukrainian side. They had met the full fury of the Russian military, withstood bombardments that leveled villages, battered cities, and filled mass graves. They had held, held, held … and won.
But on Wednesday morning, there was word that Russian forces were again gathering in the north. Exactly what Russian forces that might be isn’t clear. Kos has already talked about just how ragged some of the “battalion tactic groups” fighting in eastern Ukraine have become.
The Pentagon keeps saying stuff like “Russia has 106 BTGs in Ukraine,” but that’s literally gibberish. On paper, a Russian BTG should have 600-800 soldiers, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry fighting vehicles (along with assorted artillery, air defense, and logistics/support vehicles). In reality, deployed BTGs rarely, if ever, arrived at full strength, in large part because of grift, but also because conscripts assigned to those units weren’t legally allowed to deploy outside of Russia (though it happened sometimes, it wasn’t widespread). At this point, Russian BTGs are mostly shattered remnants.
There have been reports of new Russian units entering the area of Ukraine, and videos from Russia have shown lines of trucks moving to the west. Of course, those lines have also included things like T-62 tanks that have to be at least 47 years old and have seen few, if any, upgrades in the interval.
As Ukrainian forces were recapturing villages and towns north of Kharkiv, Russia lobbed artillery shells into some towns just across the border near Sumy. It was clearly an attempt to distract Ukrainian forces, and hopefully force a few of them to relocate to meet this “new threat.” As it became clear that Ukrainian forces were not just clearing out areas west of the Siverskyi Donets River but making a cross to attack Russian positions on the east side of the river and threaten the supply lines passing through Vovchansk, Russia peeled away BTGs from the Izyum salient to create a kind of counter-counteroffensive in the north.
There are very mixed reports about the status of Ternova and Rubizhne. Ukraine has been consistently quiet about its actions in the area, not reporting on recaptured towns until days, or sometimes weeks, after indications that their forces had entered the area. Russia has repeatedly sent out false signals that it had taken a town or village even when there’s no evidence of any action. The combination makes it difficult to do more than read messages, look at satellite data, and … keep looking. But Russia has been more active in slowing what had been a high speed movement to take the areas west of the river and expand operations east of Staryi Saltiv.
It seems likely that, like earlier shelling, the new Russian forces gathering near Sumy and Chernihiv are intended to distract Ukrainian forces north of Kharkiv. Even if the Russian forces are a ragtag patch-together of the least capable troops in the Russian military driving around in tanks that are older than their parents, there’s no doubt they could do damage if they crossed the border and entered villages still recovering from Russia’s failed attack on Kyiv. Someone will have to meet them. Whether there is enough territorial defense available isn’t clear.
Right now, Ukraine’s advance to the north of Staryi Saltiv appears to be stalled. If Russian forces haven’t reoccupied Rubizhne, they’ve certainly been fighting right on the outskirts of that town. On the eastern bank, Ukraine doesn’t appear to have progressed beyond Buhaivka. There are some signs of activity, however, with shelling south east of Staryi Saltiv on Tuesday and fighting reported in the area of Pechenihy at the southern end of that big reservoir on Wednesday.
There’s no doubt Russia is continuing to expand their control in the east. On Wednesday alone, Russia appears to have completed the occupation of Lyman, captured the towns of Rozsadky and Svitlodarsk along the southern side of the Ukrainian controlled territory, and possibly taken parts of Luhanske. They’ve advanced forces along multiple routes and, perhaps most critically, appear to have advanced west of Popasna to cut Ukrainian supplies coming along the highway from Bakhmut.
Russia is in a stronger position to threaten Ukraine’s eastern cities than it has been at any time since the invasion began. The situation north of Kharkiv is far less rosy than it was two weeks ago, with Ukrainian forces apparently stalled and possibly in retreat from locations that were previously liberated. Things are looking tough.
None of this means Russia is about to “win the war.” It doesn’t even mean that Russia is close to achieving the pared down goals it announced after the ignominious retreat from Kyiv. Not that achieving those goals matters, because Ukraine won’t stop fighting just because Putin declares he has filled in his checklist. It is not time for panic.
Russia has been pushing their forces forward in patchwork units against defended positions. They’re still having far more failed attempts to advance than they are successful ones. Videos and images confirm that they are still suffering heavy losses. Reports like the one kos posted last Thursday show that some of the “BTGs” that are now in operation are so worn down they’re practically nonexistent. But for all that, Russia is advancing. In the last two weeks they’ve taken more towns than at any time since the first week of the invasion. Ukrainian towns and long-prepared positions that have held through months of constant shelling and repulsed dozens of previous assaults have fallen.
This is a tough moment. In spite of just-arrived M777 howitzers, and in spite of Switchblades proving effective against a Russian tank, and in spite of maneuvering clearly designed to make Russia pay for every inch of advance, Ukraine is being pressed. There are reportedly reserve forces training in the west. Those fresh troops are getting up to speed with not just the regular arsenal of Ukraine, but with the whole set of new weapons systems that have been flowing in from NATO countries.
Meanwhile, there are also reports that Russia has used up a majority of its available high-precision weapons, that they are low on both parts and forces, and that even more forces are refusing to rejoin the fight. And Russia has suffered genuine disasters like the bridge crossing debacle which, we now know, came about in part because of just-delivered American artillery.
Russian troops aren’t 10 feet tall. Neither are Ukrainian troops. They’re tired. Stretched thin. The situation isn’t desperate. It’s not close to desperate. But Ukrainian forces sure could use some relief.
And a big victory wouldn’t hurt.
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A message from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine faces mass killings of civilians because it has been invaded by a brutal Russian army. The U.S. has been invaded by equally brutal forces promoting guns.
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 · 4:57:29 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Australian analyst Nathan Ruser covers some of the same ground (figuratively and literally) as kos did last week in talking about how terrain around Popasna is affecting the course of combat. Russian forces that have attempted to approach Ukrainian position along roads in lower ground have been costly failures, and now Russia is moving along ridgelines, approaching Ukrainian-held towns and villages.
“As much as the high-ground provides significant tactical advantages for Russian forces, they'll need to capture urban territory in the region to provide concealment and cover for the large number of troops they have deployed to this axis, as the high-ground is largely open fields. … Fortunately for Ukrainian forces, complex environments like urban areas negate some of the terrain advantages and provide defensive lines. Unfortunately, Russia's reliance on artillery bombardments and domination of the surrounding high-ground will make those villages hell.”
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 · 5:37:34 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
WARNING: This video directly shows Ukrainian soldiers being horrifically killed. I’m posting it as an example of why loitering munitions are such a threat on the battlefield. The Russian UAV used here—the Zala KYB Strike Drone—has become somewhat familiar to those following this invasion because it’s so often seen lying on the ground after being shot down or failing to explode.
But they don’t always fail. This one didn’t. Loitering munitions are so deadly specifically because they, or more specifically the soldier peering through the drone’s camera from a controller miles away, can wait for just the right moment before striking. This one was tragically effective.
Think carefully before watching. I fully expect Twitter to slap a warning over this as soon as their folks get a chance to see it.
Do note that this awful event happened three weeks ago at the tiny cross-roads village of Pavlivka, near Donetsk. Pavlinka is still held by Ukraine.
Wednesday, May 25, 2022 · 6:41:12 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Based on the continued action by Russian artillery on Tuesday, it appeared that Ukrainian forces were still active in the eastern tip of Lyman, most of which had been occupied by Russia. But new video on Wednesday reportedly shows Ukrainian forces heading out of Lyman. This was clearly a planned retreat, and the departing Ukrainian soldiers don’t seem either too battered, or too upset about getting out of there.