I’m not sure what to make of this yet. One thing that i’m fairly confident of is that a cataclysmic flood is not about to occur. It looks as though a couple of the floodgates have been opened. Take this headline with a grain of salt. (This was posted a few hours ago.)
Because of the Russians, Nova Kakhovka is partially flooded, and Kherson is under threat
The invaders are not allowing the repair of two hydroelectric units at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Station, which has led to the partial flooding of Nova Kakhovka.
Source: Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksii Hromov, quoted by Interfax-Ukraine
Details: Currently, one of the command centres of the Southern Military District of the Russian Federation, as well as the 49th enemy army, is deployed at the Kakhovka [U1] Hydroelectric Power Station. The Russians are not allowing repairmen to access two hydroelectric units at the Kakhovka HEP.
Consider the source. The government of Ukraine has every reason to put the invaders in a bad light. But there may be other reasons for them to dissemble about this, which i’ll get to.
We can see the reservoir in a detail of this map from MilitaryLand.net. (Do check out their daily updates on the conflict.) Reuters published a MAXAR satellite image of the bridge at the beginning of the war. It is the only other bridge across the Dnieper in this are besides the one at Kherson. As such, it has proven very useful to those Russian forces on the north side.
The reason that i suggest not jumping to dark conclusions over this is that it wouldn’t appear to suit the Russians to flood this region, given that they control everything around it. This is also quite close to the outlet to the Black Sea; there’s nothing further downstream to threaten. And there’s no suggestion that the dam is about to fail.
Of course, the situation may be exactly as Ukraine claims it is: That some repairs are being blocked by the Russians. But repair of what? Again, the dam is not crumbling into the river, it’s a matter of a couple of doors that are open. So this doesn’t especially ring true.
One clue as to what may be going on is from some news from two weeks ago. (May 12)
Russian Invaders Preparing To Use Pontoon Crossings In Area Of Nova Kakhovka – General Staff
In addition, in the Mykolayiv direction, in the area of Nova Kakhovka, the enemy is preparing engineering units for building pontoon-bridge crossings.
In the Tavriiskyi direction, Russian troops are carrying out resupply and demonstration actions in order to constrain the actions of Ukrainian troops.
This was in support of the effort by the Russians to hold the northern bank of the Dnieper. Contrary to what you may have read here, over and over again, the offensive beyond Kherson long ago became about fixing Ukraine forces, as opposed to a push towards Odessa. That ship sailed long ago. The Russians are simply keeping their buffer above Crimea secure, while not allowing Ukraine forces to join the battle in Donbass. President Zelenskyy’s birthplace has nothing whatsoever to do with it. The push beyond Kherson was actually a smart move by the Russians. (But we shall see how well that works out for them in the end.)
I am assuming that the pontoon bridge was deployed on the reservoir side. Why would the Russians erect a pontoon bridge right beside an intact bridge? Was it because they felt that the dam and bridge were too vulnerable, and that its meager two-lane roadway ought to be supplemented before it was knocked out?
Partisan activity has been reported in several areas between the Dnieper and Crimea. Might they have sabotaged a couple of the sluice gates, making it impossible to close them? Could this be an attempt to lower the reservoir level in a bid to frustrate use of the pontoon bridge? If so, i’d have to think that it’s misguided, as the level is unlikely to fall so abruptly that it causes much trouble.
Still, my mind immediately went to the partisans, as they already figure prominently in a notion that i’ve been turning over in my head for a few days. I’ll have a post about that shortly.
What do you think is going on here?