During the conflict in Ukraine, I’ve come to the conclusion that mainstream news media shares a lot of similarities to Russian artillery. Massive barrages for shock value with little substance and questionable value. This can be most clearly seen when some analyst hyperventilates when the map of Ukraine incrementally changes color to red symbolizing the slow crawl of Russian advancement.
Yet, by any military measure, Ukraine has exacted an enormous toll on the Russian army as they continue their advance. While the actual numbers are clouded in the fog of war, we can conclude that Russia has lost a significant portion of its armor, APC, and helicopter forces within the first three months of the conflict as well as a vast number of Russian soldiers due to stiff and determined Ukrainian defenses.
This is because Ukraine is successfully practicing a strategy of defense in depth. This is not a new strategy but has proven to be decisive when used in a larger military campaign. The theory of defense in depth is based on not holding a single defense line or position at all costs, but rather holding a position for as long as possible and extracting as high a cost on the enemy as feasible, then falling back to another preplanned and prepared position. This dual objective of inflicting high costs on the enemy while avoiding encirclement and preserving one’s own forces has been shown to be decisive in blunting an enemy’s offensive, wearing them down to the point of culmination, and then delivering a decisive counterattack.
For example, this can be seen in the Battle of Kursk where the Soviet army created successive defensive lines where they knew from both intelligence and simply looking at the map in 1943 where the German army was going to attack. After the German army was worn down penetrating successive defensive lines and increasingly coming under heavy Soviet artillery and rocket fire while moving further away from their own artillery, the Soviets launched their own counterattack and recaptured Belgorod and Kharkiv thereby pushing the German army out of southern Russia and back into Ukraine.
We are beginning to see the same strategy here and particularly in the Donbas. As Russia has become tunnel-visioned on Severodonetsk and has seen their offensive pincers culminate in Izyum and Popasna, the Ukrainian counterstroke has been gaining steam near Kherson in the south and towards Izyum in the north, while also giving Ukraine additional time to bring up reserves and train them on newly delivered Western weapon systems.
Russia’s military window of opportunity is rapidly closing in Ukraine and while the Western news media is waiting to see what magic rabbit Putin can pull out of his hat, the overall course of the campaign is starting to go towards Ukraine. This summer, I believe we will see a strategic shift in the war in Ukraine and while it will be long and difficult, the course is set.