The primary season continues Tuesday in Nebraska and West Virginia, which between them are home to a trio of key contests. We know that at least one House Republican will be getting the boot, and West Virginia Reps. David McKinley and Alex Mooney are fighting to make sure they’re not the one who needs to look for new work on Wednesday morning. Nebraska Republicans will also pick a nominee for governor after a truly nasty race, while Democrats in the Omaha area will be choosing their candidate to try and flip a district Biden would have carried.
Below you'll find our guide to all three races. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. And of course, because this is a redistricting year, both states on the docket have brand-new congressional maps. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for both Nebraska and West Virginia.
Polls close at 7:30 ET in West Virginia, and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections; Nebraska will close 90 minutes later. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states.
● WV-02 (R) (68-31 Trump): West Virginia is losing one of its three congressional seats due to population loss, and that’s made this new northern West Virginia district the site of the first incumbent versus incumbent primary of the cycle. Two Republican congressmen, David McKinley and Alex Mooney, are slugging it out in what has been an ugly and expensive contest, with three little-known candidates also on the ballot. Mooney is Trump’s pick, while McKinley has Gov. Jim Justice and even Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in his corner. McKinley currently represents 66% of the new 2nd District, while the remaining third are Mooney's constituents.
The two Republicans have largely voted the same way during their time in office, but Mooney and his allies at the well-funded Club for Growth have made sure to highlight his colleague-turned-rival's support for a Jan. 6 commission. Mooney’s side has also run ad after ad hitting McKinley for voting for the Biden administration's infrastructure bill, legislation McKinley maintains was vital for the state.
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McKinley, who is a seventh-generation West Virginian, has in turn portrayed his opponent as an outsider by reminding viewers that Mooney is a former Maryland state senator who only moved to the state in 2013 ahead of his first congressional bid. McKinley has further highlighted that Mooney is under investigation by the Office of Congressional Ethics for allegedly spending campaign funds on personal expenses, even running an ad that showed a digitally altered image of Mooney in a prison jumpsuit. McKinley also ran a commercial in which Manchin, citing his own opposition to Build Back Better, defended McKinley from charges that he supported it.
The few polls we’ve seen late in the race have shown Mooney well ahead. A survey for West Virginia MetroNews found him up 48-33, while a Mooney internal put his advantage at 50-30.
● NE-Gov (R) (58-39 Trump): Three candidates have emerged as the frontrunners in an expensive primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Pete Ricketts, a fellow Republican. Ricketts is backing University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen while Donald Trump is pulling for agribusinessman Charles Herbster, a self-funder who attended the infamous Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the U.S. Capitol. State Sen. Brett Lindstrom, who has parted with conservative orthodoxy at times, doesn’t have the resources and major endorsements of his two main intraparty rivals, but he’s still spent enough to get his message out.
The race took a dark turn in mid-April when eight women, including Republican state Sen. Julie Slama, accused Herbster of sexual assault. Herbster responded by running a TV ad that took the remarkable tack of directly attacking Slama and claiming her allegations were part of a scheme orchestrated by Pillen and Ricketts. Trump, unsurprisingly, has stood behind his man and continued to hold rallies for him in the state.
A mid-April poll taken in the days after the allegations against Herbster broke showed Lindstrom edging him out 28-26, with Pillen just behind at 24%. However, a Pillen internal just before the primary gave its sponsor a 31-26 lead over Herbster as Lindstrom lagged with 16%. The winner will be the overwhelming favorite against Democratic state Sen. Carol Blood in this dark red state.
● NE-02 (D & R) (52-46 Biden): Two Democrats are facing off for the right to take on Rep. Don Bacon, who is one of nine House Republicans who won election in 2020 in a district Joe Biden carried. This Omaha-based constituency remains a competitive seat, though Republican mapmakers grafted on rural turf to keep it from getting bluer.
Both of the Democrats running, state Sen. Tony Vargas and mental health counselor Alisha Shelton, would make history if they won in November: Vargas would be the state's first Latino member of Congress, while Shelton would be Nebraska's first Black representative. Vargas has enjoyed a large financial advantage over Shelton, who lost the 2020 Senate primary, in a race where there has been no serious outside spending for either candidate.
Bacon, for his part, faces a primary challenge from Steve Kuehl, a roofer who has brought in almost no money but does have one loud supporter. Bacon infuriated Trump last year by voting for Biden’s infrastructure bill, and Trump used a recent rally for gubernatorial candidate Charles Herbster as an opportunity to bash the congressman and implore the audience to vote for “Steve, whoever the hell you are.” Trump, though, has done nothing else to help the challenger.
