Russian force ratios and artillery remains important but Ukraine resistance continues. The materiel situation shouldn’t be so desperate as to require the crowdfunding of drones, but it is that collective spirit that may win the war.
The disinformation battle continues with Russian trolls spreading a rumor that Ukraine was going to mobilize all women for military service. This is the kind of authoritarian messaging in keeping with Aleksandr Dugin’s rebranded Eurasian fascist traditionalism all regurgitated by Putin.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued ground assaults in Severodonetsk and blew up bridges that connect Severodonetsk to Lysychansk across the Siverskyi Donets River in a likely attempt to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) that run from Bakhmut to Lysychansk and Severodonetsk.
- Russian forces made incremental gains to the southeast of Izyum and will likely continue attempts to advance on Slovyansk from the northwest.
- Russian forces continued efforts to push Ukrainian troops back from contested frontlines northeast of Kharkiv City.
- Russian forces focused on maintaining defensive lines along the Southern Axis.
Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground assaults in and around Severodonetsk under the cover of heavy artillery fire but have yet to establish full control of the city as of June 12.[2] Ukrainian troops maintain control of the Azot industrial zone.[3] Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces destroyed two bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk and are heavily shelling the third.[4]
Russian forces should, in principle, be seeking to seize the bridges rather than destroy them, since Russian troops have struggled to cross the Siverskyi Donetsk River. They could hope to trap Ukrainian defenders in Severodonetsk by cutting off their retreat, but it seems unlikely that the benefit of catching a relatively small number of defenders would be worth the cost of imposing a contested river crossing on Russian troops. The Russians likely expect instead to be able to break out of their positions either around Toshkivka or from Popasna to the north and then encircle Lysychansk or attack it from the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets, thereby obviating the need to seize the bridges or conduct an opposed crossing. Russian troops conducted another unsuccessful attack on Toshkivka, which is likely an effort to renew their drive north toward Lysychansk on the west bank.[5]
www.understandingwar.org/...
(Aleksandr Dugin) If the Russian Federation is not the Russian State, then the CIS is not such. Despite the fact that almost all the territories of the CIS countries (with rare exceptions) were part of the Russian Empire and, therefore, were once part of the Russian State, today the CIS countries have a sufficient degree of autonomy and are de jure considered independent political entities. With regard to these countries, one can affirm (and with even greater reason) the same as with respect to the Russian Federation these entities do not have any serious signs of true statehood, are devoid of attributes of actual sovereignty and are more a “territorial process” than stable and certain geopolitical units. Even if we ignore the growing nationalism of the CIS countries, which is often anti-Russian, out of unnatural, unstable and contradictory fragments per se, it is not possible to add a harmonious picture. The Belgian geopolitician Jean Tiriar gave one exact comparison about this. "The USSR was like a bar of chocolate, with the boundaries of the lobes-republics marked. After the slices are broken off, it is no longer enough to put them together to restore the entire tile. From now on, this can only be achieved by remelting the entire tile and stamping again . "
The Great Russians, for example, can be considered as a separate people or even a “country” within the Russian Empire, along with Ukrainians, Belarusians, possibly Serbs, etc., but at the same time they will all be closely connected with the jurisdiction of the Slavic-Orthodox type embodied in a specific state system. At the same time, the Russian Empire will depend on the Eurasian Empire, the New Empire, whose strategic interests will be placed above the national - racial and confessional interests of the Eastern Orthodox Slavs. agdugintranslate.gitbook.io/...
Speaking from near the frontlines, Mykolaiv Regional Governor Vitaliy Kim called for more support from U.S. and European allies, VOA News reported. He also indicated that, at least in his region of Ukraine, forces are running low on ammunition.
“Russia’s army is more powerful, they have a lot of artillery and ammo. For now, this is a war of artillery… and we are out of ammo,” Kim said. “The help of Europe and America is very, very important.”
The Mykolaiv region is located in Southern Ukraine and features a small shoreline on the Black Sea. Most of the combat still playing out in the country is concentrated in the Donbas region far to the east, where separatist forces have attempted to align the area with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has, in the past, justified the invasion of Ukraine, stating that his aim is to help supposedly embattled Russian speakers in Donbas.
www.newsweek.com/...
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidation I put together previously:
June 5
May 29
May 22
May 15
May 8
May 1
April 17
April 10
Combat Strength
Of an estimated 120 BTGs committed by Russia to the invasion, it is believed there are currently 110 BTGs in Ukraine. This has not changed since last week.
Here is the recent history of Russian BTG counts
However, I did see this article, which said that “Although 120 Russian battalions remain inside Ukraine, Kyiv believes they are operating at 40% or 50% strength at present”. This is the only source I have seen saying 120 BTGs present in Ukraine
The Russian ground forces committed to Ukraine are believed to represent 80% of combat ready total forces
Here is the history of US estimates of Russian combat strength. I’m not aware of the US making recent updates to this figure
The UK Ministry of Defense recently said that the Russian army appears to have begun deploying the third battalions in some brigades, another sign of approaching manpower limits given existing force structures
Russian Equipment and logistics
Russia continues to commit new equipment to its invasion of Ukraine, including considerable numbers of artillery pieces
and T-80BV tanks and BMPs
Last week I noted that Ukraine is keeping an eye on the movement of Belarusian vehicles
This week a destroyed Tunguska bearing a Belarusian nameplate was destroyed. See 12:40 in the embedded video
There are increasing signs of the impact of sanctions on Russian manufacturing. For instance, one expert foresees significant trouble for the Russian aircraft industry if significant input substitutions are not found within one year
Ukraine is concerned about potential sanctions evasion through Asia
However, this week it was announced that Chinese tech giant Huawei was closing Russian outlets and Russia’s Sberbank was suspending Yuan transactions
And US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin commented to China about support for Russia being destabilizing
There appears to be increasing Ukrainian partisan activity in Russian occupied territory targeting infrastructure in Berdyansk and the larger Kherson region
Fires at Russian manufacturing centers continue
In other anecdotal examples of equipment shortage:
Mosins and 1950s field telephones are in use
Russian tanks are using DIY ‘dynamic armor’
and gravel cage armor
Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces using a conservative estimate of only 1/3 of captures being suitable for short term reuse
Here are this week’s examples of:
Captured tanks
T-80U
another T-80U
T-90As
T-72B3
T-80BVM and T-72B3
Drifting a captured tank
Armoured vehicles:
Tractors are back with more BTR captures
Ukrainian capture of Shturm-S
BMP capture by Brazilian foreign legion members
BMP-2
BTR
These are some of the more unusual captures 2S3 captured
Czech supplied tank captured from Ukraine
Ukrainian capture of LMV Rys IMV
Captured Russian Tigr-M
New Equipment for Ukraine
For an effort to keep an ongoing count of equipment supplied to Ukraine see
oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answer…
Here is another helpful collection of the data
ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-aga…
There is also a list now being maintained on Wikipedia
Here is a global map of the donors of military and other aid to Ukraine
The third monthly meeting of donors of military aid to Ukraine is coming up this week on June 15
There is increased attention on a new logistics hub to organize these military donations
Scholz, Macron and Draghi intend to meet in Ukraine later this month, which may spur additional military aid
In addition to aid, Ukraine has recently signed a significant weapons purchase deal from Poland
Some have begun to propose a move of Ukrainian weapon production to Poland
and Poland and Ukraine signed a deal for the joint manufacture of weapons and military equipment
These initiatives are important because Ukraine is now dependent on western weapons
There are concerns about ammunition levels for Soviet and Russian equipment. Apparently, the Ukrainian side has almost completely run out of stocks of MLRS rockets
for further information on rocket use and inventories
Arguments are now being made that a switch to NATO equipment must begin now
At the same time, a lack of confidence in the German ring exchange program is causing delays from other nations, such as Greece, that are unwilling to take Germany’s word that it will backfill donated equipment
In a similar way, Switzerland has refused to transfer leopard tanks that it is holding in storage to Poland in order to backfill the Polish donations of T-72s to Ukraine
There was unexpected speculation beginning a week ago that Spain may send some Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine
In contrast, there has been continued praise for UK weapon supplies
including Vector ATVs
and M270 MLRS
Perhaps for operational security reasons or perhaps because of some of this political controversy, Norway will not be announcing its future aid
The Ukrainians were more explicit about their expectations of the impact of US MLRS systems:
theguardian.com/world/2022/jun…
This matches analysis on the impact of the currently announced HIMARS
The fighting in the Donbas has been described as “artillery ping pong”
newyorker.com/news/dispatch/…
a contest in which Ukraine finds itself outgunned in artillery 20:1 in some regions
While some western supplied equipment is making a difference, such as this Caesar executing a ‘shoot and scoot’
but western supplied equipment is also being slowly lost, such as this M777
We got further evidence of western artillery, including Czech donated DANA howitzers
M109 donated by Norway
Slovakia sending Zuzana 2
and Polish Krabs are ready for combat
Small arms, light vehicles, electronic warfare
Russian drone losses to EW appear to be increasing
Mamba APCs are seen in use
Polish variants of the AK-74 in use
Aircraft, drones and missiles
Lithuanians have named their Bayraktar ‘Hawk’
and developed a logo
There is evidence of continued switchblade use
This video demonstrates the delicate process of loading a drone for take-off with a grenade
There have been arguments that some previously deactivated combat aircraft have been put back into service as new parts become available
It has also been reported that damaged Ukrainian planes have been kept in the air by a supply of replacement parts
This is a very interesting article suggesting that the supply of parts and ammunition is being very thoughtfully guided by a US Air Force “grey wolf team”
This analysis suggests that Ukraine heavy lift aircraft have been inactive for much of the war
Ukrainian helicopters are still flying, despite Russian claims to have destroyed virtually all of them
Voice of America reported that allies are discussing providing long range anti-ship missiles
and the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Resnikov suggested that harpoons are in service already
Crowdfunded Equipment
Russian crowdfunding efforts recently include forklifts
and some optics and communications devices, but lots of general purpose tools
Ukrainian crowdfunded items include drones and personal equipment
Russia has focused much of its efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks. This was a recent attempt to disrupt weapon transfers in Kyiv
and an attack on a power station
Ukraine continues to sing the praises of starlink
Training of Ukrainian personnel
Training on Spanish leopard tanks (if every provided) would reportedly proceed in two stages, including in Latvia with units that are part of NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence program
M109 artillery training continued in Germany
Repair
Not exactly repair, but Ukrainian soldiers are now being sent abroad, to Norway in this instance, for additional medical care
• • •
Military Keynesianism is an economic policy based on the position that government should raise military spending to boost economic growth. It is a fiscal stimulus policy as advocated by John Maynard Keynes. But where Keynes advocated increasing public spending on socially useful items (infrastructure in particular), additional public spending is allocated to the arms industry, the area of defense being that over which the executive exercises greater discretionary power. Typical examples of such policies are Nazi Germany, or the United States during and after World War II, during the presidencies of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman. This type of economy is linked to the interdependence between welfare and warfare states, in which the latter feeds the former, in a potentially unlimited spiral. The term is often used pejoratively to refer to politicians who apparently reject Keynesian economics, but use Keynesian arguments in support of excessive military spending.[1][2][3] According to a 2015 study by Thomas Oatley, episodes of major financial instability develop after the U.S. engages in large deficit-financed military buildup.[4]
en.wikipedia.org/...
At the time of its collapse, Lehman was the fourth-largest investment bank in the United States with 25,000 employees worldwide. It had $639 billion in assets and $613 billion in liabilities. The bank became a symbol of the excesses of the 2007-08 Financial Crisis, engulfed by the subprime meltdown that swept through financial markets and cost an estimated $10 trillion in lost economic output.
- Lehman Brothers had humble beginnings as a dry-goods store, but eventually branched off into commodities trading and brokerage services.
- The firm survived many challenges but was eventually brought down by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.
- Lehman first got into mortgage-backed securities in the early 2000s before acquiring five mortgage lenders.
- The firm posted multiple, consecutive losses and its share price dropped.
- Lehman filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, with $639 billion in assets and $619 billion in debt.
www.investopedia.com/...