Recap: Nevada has just closed, so we’re on the lookout for results in the Republican primaries in the gubernatorial or Senate races, as well as in all four of the state’s congressional districts.
In the meantime, we’re watching the GOP primaries in SC-01, where incumbent Rep. Tom Rice may lose the Republican primary without a runoff (his top opponent, Russell Fry, is at exactly 50.0%), and SC-07, where incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace isn’t showing a lot of strength either (she leads Katie Arrington 53-45).
We’re also watching the special election in TX-34, where Republican Mayra Flores is at 49.8%, just short of the 50% she needs to avoid a runoff against Democrat Dan Sanchez for the remaining 6 months of the term in this vacant seat.
The AP is saying 68% of the vote is counted, but we’re skeptical of this figure; per our David Beard: “In TX-34, the AP's projected turnout, which they use to estimate how much of the vote has been counted so far, is not lining up with the actual turnout of the special election. With all but two counties finished counting, and only 40 precincts left to count in total according to the Texas Secretary of State, the AP says that only 65 percent of the vote is in. But there's no way those remaining precincts would account 35% of the vote, they'd be more like 5-10% at most. This estimated turnout figure that the AP and others have moved to due to "precincts reporting" being unreliable continues to be of mixed use, as turnout can be hard to gauge ahead of time in races like these.”