We’ve talked many times about the fog of war, but when action is underway—that’s when the fog really rolls in. If an area is stable for several days, enough calls to residents of the area, videos from soldiers at the front, snapshots, and geolocated scenes of destruction can merge together to give a fairly accurate idea of positions for forces on each side. That line of control can be sketched in neatly.
When forces are moving, villages are being captured and recaptured, and other locations are simply being bypassed on the way to a more vital target, that’s when the fog can become a real pea-souper. That’s especially true when accounts and sources that have previously seemed reliable and consistent in their information suddenly split and issue statements in direct disagreement about the current status.
All of this is a way of saying … welcome to Wednesday in Kherson Oblast.
(Right click and select ‘open image in a new tab’ to see at full scale)
Everyone agrees that Ukrainian forces are engaged in an active counteroffensive at multiple points of the contact line with Russian-controlled territory. The great majority of sources agree that the focus of that counteroffensive has largely moved from the bridgehead near Davydiv Brid, where fighting continues, to the southern end of the line where Ukraine has recently captured a number of towns and villages closer to the city of Kherson. And that’s about the limit of agreement.
Beyond that, some are placing the principal area of advance near the town of Kyselivka, with reports of Ukrainian forces “driving for Chornabaivka” down highway M14. Others insist this is not the main area of battle, with the real fight south of that highway, near the village of Pravdyne. There is also disagreement about the whole line of control, along with the level of activity underway, along the line all the way from Kyselivka to Snihurivka—which means that the white dots in this area may represent both towns under active dispute and those whose current control is simply a big shrug.
I can confidently say I have never presented a map with less confidence in the absolute accuracy.
There is no doubt that Ukraine has made, and is continued to make, advances in Kherson oblast. A whole number of villages and towns near Soldatske are now “confirmed” as being liberated by Ukrainian forces. Farther up the line, Ukraine seems to secured a number of small villages in that bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid and have re-aimed the current effort to the east.
The biggest concern for Ukrainian supporters looking at the action on Wednesday has to be a feeling that we’ve seen all this before. The reports that forces along the M14 are “driving for Chornabaivka,” or that those in the extreme south are “moving for Tomyna Balka” sound all too much like the reports from a week ago that forces crossing the Inhulets River were “heading for Nova Kakhovka.” In both cases the announced targets seem to ignore the fact that there are several villages in the way, as well as locations where Russia forces have known to have fortified outposts.
LIkewise, reports on Wednesday that many Russian-held villages have been abandoned and that Russian forces are preparing to leave much of the area certainly sound like recycled reports from a month ago when the first push of Ukrainian forces coming down from Mykolaiv was said to have so rattled the Russians that they were packing up and preparing to leave Kherson. By now it seems that Ukrainian forces have always been “just 10km from Kherson!” and that Russian forces have always been “about to break.”
The truth is that Ukrainian forces have been extraordinary in their push to retake Kherson, but the situation is extraordinarily hard. As kos has pointed out several times, this is an area that is about as flat, featureless, and free of cover as you will find anywhere. It’s no wonder that we keep getting reporting that people in Kherson can “hear the battle” or “see smoke on the horizon.” The horizon in the area is way out there.
Russia has made a huge—huge—deal, in Ukraine, and more importantly back in Russia, that Kherson is “Russia forever.” They are not going to simply walk away.
Ukraine is going to have to fight through a whole series of Russian-occupied villages and hard points, and they’re trying to do so without leaving a trail of absolute destruction.
It all adds up to a formula that is extremely unlikely to generate the kind of rapid, decisive results that would be so gratifying. However, there’s some extremely good news out of all this. Just two weeks ago, we were talking about Russia mounting another assault on Kryvyi Rih to the north, or sending a column to Zaporizhzhia to the northeast. Neither of those things materialized.
Because even if we’re not sure where Ukraine’s counteroffensive is being most effective, everyone agrees that Ukraine is on the offensive. And it’s being effective.
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Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 3:28:09 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Two U.S. volunteers have reportedly been captured fighting with Ukrainian soldiers. Based on treatment of British prisoners this week, there is a strong possibility Russia will declare them “soldiers of fortune” and condemn them to death. As with the British volunteers now being held, this holds the possibility of sparking a diplomatic incident. A direct confrontation remains unlikely. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 3:33:23 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
On the south side of Izyum, Russian forces are reportedly making a hard push on Bohorodychne, though at last word, they still don’t have this town. So Ukrainian forces seem to be pushing back hard in this area.
Meanwhile, west of Izyum, Ukraine has pretty much taken everything there is to take in that wooded area just outside the city. This is one case where “next stop [insert city]” really seems appropriate as there are no more settlements between Ukrainian positions and Izyum proper.
Ukraine moving on Izyum from the west.
Wednesday, Jun 15, 2022 · 8:43:27 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Somehow this era of music seems absolutely perfect for this video. Because in a lot of ways this recalls another era … one we had all hoped was safely buried.
Also … holy cow. This is beyond skimming the corn stalks. He’s really got this thing right down on the deck.
