The disinformation war continues as Russia seems to have recruitment issues without full mobilization, while Ukraine is revealing that its casualties are higher than previously estimated.
British intelligence estimates that Russian losses in the first three months of the war were up to 20,000, while Ukrainian officials said Russian losses were nearing 30,000. Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a think tank in Virginia, wrote that “a reasonable estimate, based on limited information, would place Russian troops killed in action at somewhere 7,000−15,000, with the more likely figure close to 10,000.”
www.washingtonpost.com/...
To begin with, neither side has been able to establish general air superiority, much less supremacy. Furthermore, Russia and Ukraine are suffering significant numbers of fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft losses. As with much else about this war, Western perspectives are being shaped by adroit Ukrainian information operations coupled with their very competent operational security. We simply do not know actual aircraft losses on either side beyond their self-reporting, which is probably biased towards depicting the other side’s losses as higher than they may be. Nor is it clear what is causing the losses, whether Stingers, high-end air defenses, or air-to-air combat. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither side rules the skies. Given the centrality of air dominance in U.S. doctrine, these details are incredibly important. Just asserting that the Air Force would have air supremacy in a conflict is no longer sufficient, because its absence affects every aspect of U.S. joint operations.
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Multi-domain operations has a similar orientation toward offensive operations in conflict, with three key components that are all clearly offensive in nature: penetrate, dis-integrate, and exploit. A key assumption in being prepared for offensive operations is that there are sufficient forces in the theater when the war begins to slow the enemy sufficiently for the main force to arrive. How this happens is largely absent from the concept.
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The character of the war in Ukraine has changed, which suggests a final first-order question for the Army: are the multi-domain operations concept and an all-volunteer force prepared for a protracted war of attrition? Conrad Crane’s admonition in these pages about the ability of the U.S. military to withstand such a war is important for the Army to address if it is going to prevail in the wars it may have to fight, rather than the ones it wants to fight.
warontherocks.com/...
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to launch ground assaults on Severodonetsk and settlements along the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk. Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are no longer operating as concrete battalion tactical groups (BTGs), as ISW previously assessed.
- Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk, while Ukrainian forces reportedly resumed preparations for counteroffensives west of Izyum.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in clashes north and northeast of Kharkiv City, though no significant territory changed hands.
- Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in northwestern Kherson Oblast, likely in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the region.
- Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin continued to discuss and sign patronage agreements with Russian regional officials.
www.understandingwar.org/...
The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania committed to Ukrainian officials that the West would not demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and will support Ukraine to the end of the war during a visit to Kyiv on June 16. French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France, Germany, Italy, and Romania are “are doing everything so that Ukraine alone can decide its fate.”[1] Macron added that Ukraine “must be able to win” and pledged to provide six more self-propelled howitzers.[2] German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany will continue to provide financial, humanitarian, and weapons assistance for “Ukraine’s war of independence.”[3] Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis additionally vowed to back Ukraine’s bid to become an official candidate for European Union membership.[4] Sustained Western military support to Ukraine will be essential to enable Ukrainian forces to liberate Russian-occupied territory.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday.
The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers.
- Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia has been gradually gaining territory.
- Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley was asked about the rate of Ukrainian casualties on Wednesday and said it was difficult to estimate but previous media reports of around 100 killed and up to 300 injured each day had been "in the ballpark of our assessments." He was not responding to the latest Ukrainian estimate.
- Milley also said Russia had taken "huge" losses and Ukraine was fighting effectively.
What Ukraine lacks, Arakhamia contended, is the weaponry and ammunition to match Russia in "one of the biggest fights of the 21st century." He said: "We have the people trained to attack, to counterattack, but we need weapons for this."
- "Our negotiating position is actually quite weak, so we don't want to sit at the table if we are in this position. We need to reverse it in some way," Arakhamia said, stressing the need for a counter-operation to regain lost territory.
Driving the news: Arakhamia is leading a Ukrainian delegation in Washington this week to lobby the Biden administration and Congress to increase the pace of weapons shipments and to recognize Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism — a topic he said they plan to raise with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.).
- President Biden spoke with Zelensky Wednesday and informed him of additional military and humanitarian assistance, the White House said. The $1 billion in weapons to be shipped to Ukraine include rockets and artillery ammunition.
- In a roundtable Wednesday at the German Marshall Fund, Arakhamia and other members of the delegation noted that while Biden had signed a $40 billion package to aid Ukraine in May, it was only very gradually translating into actual weapons shipments.
- Meanwhile, Ukraine's partners — particularly in Europe — are beginning to focus on replenishing their own stockpiles rather than arming Ukraine, Arakhamia said. He noted that the German government was still very reluctant to approve export licenses to arm Ukraine, perhaps due to "internal fear" of Russia.
What to watch: While formal negotiations are frozen, Arakhamia said he and his team speak by phone with their Russian counterparts "one or two times per week" to check in, even though "both sides clearly realize that right now, there is no place for negotiation."
- He said there was domestic backlash to the idea of negotiating with Russia at all after the alleged war crimes in cities like Bucha and Mariupol, but also noted the war would have to end through "compromise."
www.axios.com/...