Welcome to my diary series titled Majority Savers! I will run a new article every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. The goal of this series is to highlight races that may make or break our current slender majorities in Congress. That means I will start more with incumbent Senators and House members until some primary elections are settled. If I have time, I will expand it to governors as well in critical swing states.
If you want to find my previous entries in this series, I recommend following me or searching for #MajoritySavers as a tag!
I have six ground rules behind the philosophy of this series. I’d ask you all to respect them as best you can, because these are taking me quite a long time to write. Here are my ground rules.
This incumbent has represented the Toledo metropolitan area for 40 years. In that time, she has never faced a tough race since her initial election. That changes in 2022, with gerrymandering responsible for giving her a difficult seat to win. Just wait until you see who Rep. Marcy Kaptur has to face in Ohio’s 9th district to return to Congress for another term!
Kaptur has had a long political history, and this section isn’t meant to highlight everything she has accomplished. If you are interested in her biography, HERE is the best source.
- Her mother worked at a factory in the Toledo area, and helped organize the union in her spare time. This likely was the entry into Democratic politics that led Kaptur to become a candidate later on in her career.
- She began her political career in the Carter administration as an urban policy expert. She helped craft many of the reinvestment acts that Carter tried to pass against a hostile House conservative majority.
- She graduated from MIT with a PhD degree in urban planning and development finance. This is after attending both the University of Wisconsin-Madison as an undergrad and the University of Michigan to earn a master’s degree in urban planning.
Rep. Kaptur has a liberal record in a district that will likely no longer support such a record. Her DW Nominate score is -0.35, which indicates a person right in the middle of our caucus. She is more liberal than 69% of the entire body of the House, while also being more conservative than 59% of the Democratic caucus. DW Nominate has issues with votes against bills from the left, which dings Kaptur.
Fair Trade: Her #1 signature issue is being against the free trade agreements signed by both Democratic and Republican presidents over the past 40 years. She led the liberal opposition to NAFTA and CAFTA when those free trade deals unfortunately passed. As a Rust Belt representative, she knows how these so-called “free trade deals” have hollowed out places like Toledo.
Environmental Protection: She has led efforts to clean up toxic industrial sites and brownfields across the district and across America. Lake Erie often has a toxic algal bloom, and she is a strong proponent of measures to reduce this detrimental toxic bloom. Finally, she is for clean energy and bringing clean energy jobs back to northern Ohio and the Toledo area.
Wall Street Accountability: Kaptur is definitely in the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren wing of the party when it comes to holding Wall Street accountable. She voted against the Wall Street bailout from the left back during the Great Recession. She constantly looks to re-institute the Glass-Steagall Act to take better control of the banks. She is one of the best in the House on these issues.
Recent Elections —
2020 President: TFG (R-inc) 50.6%, Joe Biden (D) 47.7%
2020 House: Marcy Kaptur (D-inc) 63.1%, Rob Weber (R) 36.9%
2022 Race Rating: Tossup
2022 PVI: R+3
The Toledo area has given solid if unspectacular numbers of votes for Democratic candidates for 40 years running. Marcy Kaptur dislodged a GOP incumbent 40 years ago to first come to Congress, and has not been seriously challenged since. The lean of the Toledo area has kept her safe the entire time she has been in office.
Things started to change after 2010 redistricting, when the Ohio GOP pitted Kaptur against fruitcake Rep. Kucinich in a district that sprawled from Toledo all the way to the western parts of Cleveland. Population losses allowed Republicans to basically combine the two Democratic members of Congress into a super safe Democratic vote sink. Kucinich bailed, and Kaptur remained in Congress and basically unchallenged.
Ironically enough, what may lead to her demise is the redistricting legislation that gave criteria for how districts could be drawn. The hideous gerrymander that protected Kaptur last decade was no longer permissible, and there is not enough population near Toledo to give her a safe seat anymore. The sham redistricting commission (led by partisan elected Republicans) gave her a district TFG won twice. Kaptur is in for the race of her life against an absolute lunatic in JR Majewski.
Political Tour of the District
The 2020 redistricting version of Ohio’s 9th district includes the Toledo metropolitan area combined with some Rust Belt counties along Lake Erie that are trending away from us. To make matters worse, there are some counties that are outright hostile to Democratic candidates from northwestern Ohio thrown into the mix. It is only a matter of time before the GQP wins this district. We are lucky they nominated a complete lunatic this time around, which gives us a chance.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 9th district.
- Toledo metro area: This is the home base of Rep. Kaptur, and it is critical that she find every single vote possible to drown out the rest of the district, which is absolutely hostile to us. This includes the swingy suburbs of Perrysburg, Sylvania, and Oregon.
- Sandusky and Fremont: These small cities still vote for Democratic candidates, even as the areas surrounding them are now hostile to the party and enamored of TFG. Kaptur needs to find every possible vote in these small cities to eke out a narrow win against Majewski.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Northwest Ohio: Fulton, Williams, and Defiance Counties average around 70% of the vote for the GQP candidates, and they have enough votes to tip the scale against Kaptur. Other than the city of Defiance, which is light red, the rest of this area is completely hopeless for our side.
- Lake Erie Shoreline: Except for the aforementioned small cities, the rest of the Rust Belt found along the Lake Erie shoreline has turned against us. Kaptur needs to find some residual votes open to her to staunch the bleeding elsewhere. If this area does not reject Majewski, she’s doomed.
Activism — Help How You Can!
In Quarter 1, Rep. Marcy Kaptur raised $439k, which frankly isn’t enough money in this day and age. This is why I am extremely worried that she hasn’t had a serious race in my lifetime. Can she raise enough money to overcome a possible QAnon fascist superstar in Majewski? That remains to be seen. Thankfully, Majewski raised so little during the quarter that he didn’t even get a mention on the DailyKos Elections Fundraising Roundup.
Thankfully, a lifetime of small cash sums has given Kaptur enough of a war chest to be viable in this competitive district. She has $1.31 MILLION cash on hand, which should be enough of a start in the Toledo media market. This race has the chance of becoming super expensive. I haven’t donated to any House candidates yet, but Kaptur tops my list. WE MUST STOP J.R. MAJEWSKI.
DONATE TO REP. MARCY KAPTUR HERE
This race will need volunteers, because we need to find every vote possible in a district that TFG won. We cannot count on past performances by Kaptur being enough in such a hostile district. If you are in the Toledo area, go to https://marcykaptur.com/ and sign up. You also will get to help our gubernatorial candidate in Nan Whaley and our senatorial candidate in Tim Ryan as well!
Majewski has a stellar social media game, as repugnant as it is (you shall see below). Kaptur does NOT have much of a social media game right now, and this could be her undoing. She has a miniscule 3,341 followers on Twitter. Majewski has tens of thousands. Please follow her! We need to show how dangerous her opponent is!
She also has a minimal Facebook presence at marcykapturforcongress. As I said, her social media game is weak!
I am breaking one of my rules in the conclusion. I need you to see that J.R. Majewski is every bit as insane as Marjorie Taylor Greene, if not more unhinged. Here is his lawn during the 2020 campaign:
If you think that is bad, look at his Twitter account. It’s completely nuts. This is the tamest tweet I could find. Note the shining red eyes — which are becoming a symbol of the fascist right.
Wait until you see this ad — it’s a peach:
And that isn’t even the worst one. He had an absolute bonkers ad released when he won the primary, which has been taken down almost everywhere. In it, he was “going on a mission” to hunt down the President and Democratic members of Congress and the President and aiming a rifle at them. I am dead serious. Oh, and he participated in the January 6th insurrection as well (he claims not to have breached the Capitol building, which is a lie).
The sad thing is because of the lean of the district, Majewski stands a good chance of winning. This is why we need to support Rep. Marcy Kaptur with everything we have to prevent this lunatic from joining the Qrazy Qaucus come November.
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