Offensive or defensive, some brand of realism is setting into the war situation, even as Russia continues to replace generals. Ukraine has been more open about the possible casualty numbers and the situation has begun to firm up boundaries in the east much like 2014. An argument about the importance of the Southern offensive near Kherson appears below. Disinformation continues including reports on materiel deliveries and the disposition of armor resources. Any end to the fighting still looks to be months away.
Russian forces made marginal gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk on June 18 but have largely stalled along other axes of advance. Russian troops are likely facing mounting losses and troop and equipment degradation that will complicate attempts to renew offensive operations on other critical locations as the slow battle for Severodonetsk continues. As ISW previously assessed, Russian forces will likely be able to seize Severodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the cost of concentrating most of their available forces in this small area. Other Russian operations in eastern Ukraine—such as efforts to capture Slovyansk and advance east of Bakhmut—have made little progress in the past two weeks. Russian forces are continuing to fight to push Ukrainian troops away from occupied frontiers north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis, but have not made significant gains in doing so, thus leaving them vulnerable to Ukrainian counteroffensive and partisan pressure.
The Russian military continues to face challenges with the morale and discipline of its troops in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate released what it reported were intercepted phone calls on June 17 and 18 in which Russian soldiers complained about frontline conditions, poor equipment, and overall lack of personnel.[1] One soldier claimed that units have been largely drained of personnel and that certain battalion tactical groups (BTGs) have only 10 to 15 troops remaining in service.[2]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces secured minor gains on the outskirts of Severodonetsk and likely advanced into Metolkine, but Russian operations remain slow.
- Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway and conducted ground and artillery strikes along the highway.
- Russian forces seek to push Ukrainian forces out of artillery range of railway lines around Kharkiv City used to supply Russian offensive operations toward Slovyansk.
- Russian forces did not take any confirmed actions along the Southern Axis and continue to face partisan pressure in occupied areas of southern Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground assaults against Severodonetsk and its outskirts and secured minor gains in the southeastern suburbs of the city on June 18.[3] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops had partial success while attacking Metolkine, (just south of Severodonetsk) where they have been fighting for the last few days, though ISW cannot independently confirm what areas of the town Russian forces seized.[4] Russian forces likely intend to capture the southern suburbs of Severodonetsk and advance to the bank of the Severskiy Donets river before assaulting the center of Ukrainian resistance in the Azot chemical plant. Russian forces are additionally fighting for control of Syrotnye, another nearby suburb of Severodonetsk.[5] Russian forces continued to fire on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.[6]
www.understandingwar.org/...
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Russia’s war in Ukraine could take years, Nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said. “We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine,” he said. “Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices.”
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Russia was sending a large number of reserve troops to Sievierodonetsk from other battle zones to try to gain full control of the besieged eastern city, the governor of Ukraine’s Luhansk region said on Sunday. “Today, tomorrow, or the day after tomorrow, they will throw in all the reserves they have … because there are so many of them there already, they’re at critical mass,” Serhiy Gaidai said on national television.
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A big explosion rocked an area near Sievierodonetsk on Saturday. Rodion Miroshnik, an official in the self-styled separatist administration of the Luhansk People’s Republic, posted a video of what he said was the cloud on the Telegram messaging app.
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Five civilians were killed on Saturday in Ukrainian strikes on the eastern separatist city of Donetsk, according to local authorities. “As a result of the bombardment by Ukrainian forces, five people were killed and 12 others were wounded in the Donetsk People’s Republic,” the authorities said in a statement posted on Telegram.
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Several Russian missiles hit a gasworks in the Izium district in eastern Ukraine, Kharkiv region governor Oleh Synehubov said on Saturday. “A large-scale fire broke out, rescuers localised the fire,” he wrote on the Telegram messaging app. Reuters reported him adding that some other buildings had also been damaged.
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Russian missiles destroyed a fuel storage depot in Novomoskovsk, a town in eastern Ukraine, on Saturday. According to the head of the regional administration, three people have been sent to the hospital.
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The Pentagon is considering sending four additional rocket launchers to Ukraine, Politico reports. According to US defence department officials, speaking to the outlet on anonymity, the US may likely send four more high mobility artillery rocket systems, making their total number about eight. The decision would be “based on Ukrainian immediate needs,” the official told Politico.
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Russia and Ukraine have carried out a prisoner exchange, the Kyiv Independent reports. Five captured Ukrainian individuals were returned to Ukraine on 18 June in exchange for five captured Russian individuals, according to the Ukrainian defence ministry’s intelligence directorate.
www.theguardian.com/...
Whilst everyone has been talking about the Donbas, something much more significant has been happening in the South.
The Ukrainians are mounting a counter-attack towards Kherson. This has been going on for about three weeks.
I’ll come to that in a bit, but first I want to make some assessments about why everyone is going on about Donbas.
Firstly, it is where Putin has declared his objectives to lie - taking the whole of the Donbas is the Kremlin’s recently downsized objective in this war.
Secondly, the Ukrainians have hyped it to the max and are using it as a lever to drag more weapons out of the West (“this is where the future of Ukraine will be determined” etc - if only you would give us some more rockets).
TBF I’d be doing exactly the same thing if I were them
Thirdly, there are loads of reporters there, like bees around a honeypot. They’ve been in the Donbas ever since Putin announced it as his goal
Previously they were in Kyiv, but then moved
We get a distorted view of the whole conflict, because of the density of reporters there.
Fourthly - there is a significant loss of life occurring there, both of Russian and of Ukrainian troops. Who knows how many, but maybe 150 a day each?
Understandably this drives media attention.
But as I’ve said previously - the south is where the real strategic play is - around Kherson.
Why?
Kherson was the first major settlement captured by the Russians in the early days of the war because some Ukrainians gov officials switched sides.
The Russians have held it ever since.
It’s a super important city as it is the only city on the North / West bank of the Dnipro river (which is a massive river that cuts Ukraine in half from Crimea to Kyiv). Look at this, it’s mega:
If Russia continues to hold, then it makes further operations in Ukraine easier in this war, or in any future wars.
But if the Ukrainians push them back it means the Russians don’t hold any major settlements, and they’ve lost their toe hold North and West of the Dnipro
Significantly, as well Kherson opens up the door to Crimea for the Ukrainians, and also will (with a bit more attacking) enable them to control the water supply to Crimea. That’s obviously a big deal.
So overall - Kherson is much more important militarily than what is going on in the Donbas, but Putin has decided that his objectives are the Donbas, so everyone focusses on it.
But the Ukrainian objectives are not to stop Putin taking the Donbas.
Their objectives are to kick Russian forces out of the sovereign territory of Ukraine.
Obviously to do this they don’t need to follow the same sequence of objectives that Putin has. They have decided to take advantage of Russia stripping forces out of the South (to try and make progress in the East), to try and take some real targets of strategic value in the south
So what is actually going on in the Kherson front?
Territory taken back in the last three weeks (in blue) - current front line is red - Kherson and Dnipro in orange.
NB this is more territory than the Russians have taken in the East by the way.
What else are we seeing?
Ukrainian partisan attacks against Russians and collaborators including a bomb attack today against a car carrying the Head of Kherson prison who had switched sides
Russian arms dumps being blown up (?three days ago) and helicopters being shot down (yesterday)
We are also seeing absolutely nuts Russian bot activity on twitter at the suggestion that Kherson is the main front and not Donbas. Some of the most intense that I’ve seen in the conflict.
Seems the Russian government wants the narrative that Ukraine is on the ropes in Donbas - because it causes people who should know better to start saying stuff like ‘Ukraine should sue for peace and give up territory’.
These people paint themselves as realists, but the Ukrainians—ultimate realists—know that concessions now will embolden Putin, or the next leader, to come and have another go.
The only option for Ukraine is complete defeat of Russia within Ukrainian borders.
They know—like the Finns do after 1941—that the only way to ensure peace from Russia is to hand them their arses on a plate.
Back to Kherson:
It’s not clear what will happen here, but it is fairly clear to me that the Ukrainians are taking advantage of Putin’s focus on the Donbas to bleed them dry there (reports of civilians being conscripted and sent to front without training), in order to ….
…to make militarily significant gains in the south.
Who knows whether the Ukrainians will make it to Kherson.
Performance so far in the war (and Russia’s) suggests that the Ukrainians will make it.
The Ukrainian government has warned civilians to leave Kherson in light of the coming assault - they know what happened to civilians in Bucha just before the Russians pulled out.
They are obviously confident of taking it.
I find it odd that the media is so fixated on Donbas - but then the media has a bias for loud things that go bang, casualties and humanitarian situations.
But this does not make for a sound analysis of strategy.
And as for weapons deliveries b’coz this is the topic du jour:
Artillery is fine and useful and will enable the Ukrainians to do counter battery fire against the Russians.
But artillery isn’t that much use I reckon in taking Kherson - why would you want to shell your own city?
This weapons delivery stuff seems ever so slightly behind the picture - if I were the Ukrainians I would be asking for armed micro drones and electronic warfare kit and counter battery radars and secure comms for partisans.
Maybe they are asking for these things under the table
I would also be asking for stuff for the next stage of the war, not this stage of the war.
If Donbas grinds to a halt into a slugfest, but Kherson opens up - then where are the vehicles for the Ukrainians to make advances?
I mean asking for artillery now, when its going to arrive in a month seems a bit stupid.
But as with most of these things, what is said in the media and reality are two different stories.
ENDS
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Frontline Overview
No significant changes. Main Russian offensive directions Izium-Sloviansk and Popasna-Bakhmut-Lysychansk road. Russia did reach road, but got kicked back immediately. Battles in Sievierodonetsk and south-east.
In last 3 days, Ukraine destroyed at least 7 large Russian ammo warehouses. Russia trying to revenge by hitting cities – Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mykolaiv, attempts to aim at Ukraine ammo and oil warehouses/manufacturing. Not all Russian missiles reach targets. Russia ignoring civilian losses. In last week, there is phenomenal increase in accuracy of Ukrainian artillery. Most warehouses and command centers are destroyed with 1st hit. Possibly better ammo, or better targeting. It’s hard to measure and explain such increase, for example 10 howitzers alone is nothing significant, but 10 howitzers with improved fire-control systems and artillery radars could be compared to 40 dumb Russian howitzers.
Kharkiv: 5-7 BTGs, 6 aircraft, 15-18 helicopters near Belgorod, they can not reach Kharkiv, but can approach closer, and significantly increase artillery shelling. Anyone in Kharkiv, please don’t ignore air-raid sirens.
Current Ukrainian tasks – to wear out Russians from Izium to Popasna, and approach on Kherson. Russians trying to do the same on Kharkiv, distract Ukrainians from elsewhere. Attacks on Kharkiv will keep happening quite a while, but there is no risk of losing control of city. Significant damage possible.
Izium: Ukraine moving near Siversky Donets river in direction of Izium with battles (so, not linear speed), blocking possible Russian river crossings.
Can expect SIGNIFICANT update on Monday.
Negotiation plans delayed, until significant changes (either Russia captures Lysychansk, or Ukraine captures Kherson). Germany and France understand that. In modern war and somewhat equal technology, success is not sudden, it’s achieved through slow persistent progress. UK assistance on training is also intended in long term, Ukraine is preparing for long war. Even Western attitude will be corrected, depending on battlefield changes.
wartranslated.com/...