The continuing war grinds on with a few anomalous attacks on Russian logistics including the possibility of a misidentified drone.
The Russian invasion caused losses of up to $100 billion to the Ukraine economy. This figure was announced by the National Bank of Ukraine in its financial stability report.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike (likely with a loitering munition, though this cannot be confirmed) on a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast, on June 22. Russian Telegram channel Voenyi Osvedomitel claimed that the strike, which targeted Russian infrastructure within 15 km of the Ukrainian border, originated from Donetsk Oblast. Ukrainian forces have not targeted Russian infrastructure for several weeks, and this strike is likely an attempt to disrupt Russian logistics and fuel supply to Russian operations in eastern Ukraine.
The military situation for Ukraine’s defenders in the eastern Donbas is “extremely difficult”, officials say. Some 568 civilians are thought to be holed up in Sievierodonetsk’s Azot chemical plant, as Russian attacks intensified in an effort to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said Lysychansk was getting shelled “en masse”.
Russian forces have captured several settlements near the embattled eastern cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. The head of the Sievierodonetsk district military administration, Roman Vlasenko, said the frontline village of Toshkivka had not been under Ukrainian control since Monday. Russian forces also reportedly captured Pidlisne and Mala Dolyna, located southwest of Sievierodonetsk, and saw success near the Hirske settlement in Luhansk.
At least 15 civilians were killed in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region by Russian shelling on Tuesday, according to regional governor Oleh Synegubov.
Mass mobilisation is “about to happen” in Russia with the Kremlin recruiting people in poorer regions to fight in Ukraine, according to western officials. Officials also said there was “more chatter” about Vladimir Putin’s health and “more speculation” about who would replace him in Russia. However, there does not appear to be an “immediate threat” to the Russian president’s position from the elite or the general population, they said.
- Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.
- Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.
- Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.
- Russian authorities are continuing measures to facilitate the economic integration of occupied areas.
DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces dug in for a last-ditch defense against Russian advances Wednesday in Luhansk Province, where the invaders now threaten to overrun two major cities that had resisted their halting progress.
The prospect of a Russian takeover of the embattled cities, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, left Ukrainian commanders with the stark choice to stay and fight, risking severed supply lines and the encirclement of thousands of defenders, or withdraw and forfeit the last major urban centers in Luhansk, part of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
For weeks, the Russians had been content to lay back and fire artillery and rockets on the Ukrainian forces before trying to push forward with tanks and troops. This strategy culminated in an apparent breakthrough Wednesday as the Russians seized three strategic villages, the regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, conceded.
From the villages — Mirna Dolina, Podlisne and Toshkivka — the Russian troops have gained higher ground to fire on Lysychansk, including with shorter-range artillery.
“The last city is Lysychansk, and it will be very hard here, a lot of good guys will die,” said Sergiy, a Ukrainian soldier defending the city who gave only his first name for security reasons.
While the villages are small, their collapse within days of one another amounts to a significant breach in Ukraine’s defenses, bringing Russian forces to the doorstep of Lysychansk and threatening the dwindling supply routes into the city.
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued efforts to push north toward Lysychansk along the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and made measured gains south of Lysychansk on June 22. Head of Luhansk Oblast Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian troops are consolidating their positions in Toshkivka, Ustynivka, Pidlisne, and Myrna Dolyna, and are attacking Bila Hora, directly on the southeastern outskirts of Lysychansk. Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces took control of Rai-Oleksandrivka and Loskutivka, both 10 km south of Lysychansk. Haidai additionally stated that Russian forces are trying to fix in place Ukrainian units in Borivske and Voronove (both within 5 km southeast of Severodonetsk) and are firing on Ukrainian positions in Synetskyi and Pavlohrad (western suburbs of Severodonetsk along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River). Haidiai’s claim suggests that Ukrainian forces still control the area to the southwest of Severodonetsk along the eastern bank of the Siverskyi Donets River and are therefore not entirely encircled in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. Russian forces continued street fights within Severodonetsk, presumably for control of the industrial zone. Russian forces are moving to complete the encirclement of Ukrainian positions in Zolote and Hirske but likely have not captured these settlements as of June 22.
To Win #Ukraine
More modern equipment
is losing predominantly its old equipment,
Ukraine is losing & new equipment equally (cf. table in previous tweet above).
The West promises but🚫delivering enough
• • •