The window for Russian negotiating may be more limited as they restart offensive operations after a “pause”. Zelensky fires his security services head and chief prosecutor becuase of discovered Russian collaboration in their agencies.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued a measured return from the operational pause and did not make any confirmed territorial gains on July 17.
- Russian forces continued limited ground assaults around Siversk, Bakhmut, and Donetsk City and otherwise fired at civilian and military infrastructure throughout the Donbas.
- Russian forces focused on defensive operations north of Kharkiv City and along the Southern Axis.
- The Kremlin may be setting long-term conditions for force generation efforts in anticipation of protracted hostilities in Ukraine.
- Russian occupation authorities are likely using the threat of partisan activities to justify harsher societal controls in occupied areas.
-
Russia is preparing for the next stage of its offensive in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian military officials, after Moscow said its forces would step up military operations in “all operational areas”. The Ukrainian military said Russia appeared to be regrouping units for an offensive towards Sloviansk, a symbolically important city held by Ukraine in the eastern region of Donetsk. The British defence ministry added that Russia was also reinforcing its defensive positions across the occupied areas in southern Ukraine.
-
1,346 civilians have been found dead in the Kyiv region after the retreat of Russian forces, according to the region’s police chief. Andriy Nebytov said about 300 individuals were still missing, and that 700 of those killed were shot with small arms such as a handgun.
-
Russia has lost more than 30% of its land combat effectiveness and 50,000 of its soldiers have either died or been injured in the conflict, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of the UK defence staff, told the BBC. The military chief added that Russia posed “the biggest threat” to the UK and that its challenge would endure for decades.
-
Mourners have buried a four-year-old girl who was killed by a Russian missile strike in the city of Vinnytsia, in central Ukraine, last week. The killing of Liza Dmitrieva, who had Down’s syndrome, as she was pushed in a stroller through a crowded square was reported around the globe, becoming a poignant symbol of the heavy civilian cost of Russia’s invasion.
-
Russian missiles hit an industrial and infrastructure facility in Mykolaiv, a shipbuilding centre and city near the Black Sea in southern Ukraine. Oleksandr Senkevych, the city’s mayor, said there was no immediate information about casualties.
-
A Russian attack on the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in Donetsk has injured six people, including three children, according to local media reports. The three injured children have shrapnel wounds, the Donetsk prosecutor’s office said.
-
A British man apparently being held captive by Russian forces in Ukraine has been shown in a video appealing to Boris Johnson for help, saying he could face the death penalty. “I would say to Boris Johnson, if you can help, if you can influence President Zelenskiy … or if you can influence President Putin, then please do,” John Harding, in his 50s and originally from Sunderland, said while interviewed by a Russian journalist. “People’s lives are depending on this. So if you can, please help.”
-
Russian police have detained journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who in March interrupted a live TV broadcast to denounce the military action in Ukraine, her lawyer has said. No official statement has been made, but her entourage posted a message on the journalist’s Telegram account on Sunday, according to Agence France-Presse. “Marina has been detained,” it read. “There is no information on where she is.”
-
Sunday marked the eighth anniversary of the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Donetsk in 2014, which killed 298 people onboard. Russia denied involvement in the plane’s downing, despite the findings of an international investigation that found witnesses who saw an anti-aircraft missile launcher that had secretly crossed into Ukraine from Russia in the hours before it shot down the commercial flight. Iryna Venediktova, the prosecutor general of Ukraine, called for international action against Russia.
-
The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has fired the country’s head of the security service and the prosecutor general, claiming more than 60 of their employees have been “working against” Ukraine in Russian-occupied territory. He added that 651 criminal proceedings had been registered relating to high treason and collaboration by employees of prosecutors’ offices, pretrial investigation bodies and other law enforcement agencies.
www.theguardian.com/...
In a Telegram post, Zelenskiy said he had fired the top officials because it had come to light that many members of their agencies had collaborated with Russia, a problem he said had touched other agencies as well.
He said 651 cases of alleged treason and collaboration had been opened against prosecutorial and law enforcement officials, and that more than 60 officials from Bakanov and Venediktova's agencies were now working against Ukraine in Russian-occupied territories.
The sheer number of treason cases lays bare the huge challenge of Russian infiltration faced by Ukraine as it battles Moscow in what it says is a fight for survival.
"Such an array of crimes against the foundations of the national security of the state ... pose very serious questions to the relevant leaders," Zelenskiy said.
"Each of these questions will receive a proper answer," he said.
www.reuters.com/…
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces conducted defensive operations and attempted to disrupt Ukrainian logistical support along the Southern Axis on July 17.[16] Russian forces systematically shelled civilian and military infrastructure along the Southern frontline and conducted artillery strikes in Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[17]
Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are changing their concentration areas to densely populated areas in Kherson Oblast in an effort to deter Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions.[18] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also reported that Russian forces modified S-300 surface-to-air missiles to strike Mykolaiv City during the night on July 16-17.[19]
The Kherson Oblast Administration stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian ammunition warehouse in Lazurne on July 16-17.[20]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces continued to focus on maintaining defensive positions in the Kharkiv City direction on July 17.[10] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched air and artillery strikes on Kharkiv City and settlements to the north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv City.[11] Russian forces also reportedly hit an unidentified target near Chuhuiv, southeast of Kharkiv City.[12]
Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces launched an unspecified strike on the Khartron Express research and production enterprise in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv City on July 17.[13] Rybar claimed that the Khartron Express enterprise hosted Polish and British military instructors who trained Ukrainian forces in the area.[14] Rybar also claimed that the enterprise served as a hub for Ukrainian reconnaissance and planning operations.[15] ISW cannot independently verify the exact location of the strikes at this time.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to fire on settlements southeast of Izyum and did not make any confirmed ground attacks in this area toward Slovyansk on July 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops shelled in the vicinity of Dolyna, Dibrovne, Ivanivka, Mazanivka, Bohorodychne, and Kurulka—all near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border northwest of Slovyansk.[1]
Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful ground attacks toward Siversk on July 17.[2] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops forced Russian units to withdraw during assaults on Hryhorivka (10km northeast of Siversk) and Verkhnokamyanka (15 km due east of Siversk).[3] Both Russian and Ukrainian sources also noted ongoing fighting around Ivano-Darivka (about 5 km southeast of Siversk) and near Berestove (15 km southeast of Siversk) and Bilohorivka (15 km northeast of Siversk).[4] Russian forces continued to set conditions for a direct assault on Siversk and shelled the city and its surroundings in addition to conducting aerial reconnaissance of the area.[5]
Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful ground assaults around Bakhmut on July 17. The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian troops tried but failed to advance around Yakovlivka, within 15 km northeast of Bakhmut along the T1302 highway, and around Novoluhanske, 20km south of Bakhmut.[6] Russian forces conducted artillery, air, and missile strikes on surrounding settlements including Krasna Hora and Soledar (north of Bakhmut), Vershyna, Novoluhanske, and Travneve (south of Bakhmut), and Pokrovske (east of Bakhmut).[7]
Russian forces in the Donetsk City area continued efforts to advance toward Avdiivka on July 17. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselyov claimed that Russian forces are fighting in Mariinka, directly on the outskirts of Donetsk City southwest of Avdiivka.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff similarly noted that Russian forces are engaged in positional battles north of Donetsk City near Mykhailivka and southwest of Donetsk City around Pavlivka and Novomykhailvka.[9] Russian forces will likely continue efforts to drive northward toward Avdiivka despite heavy Ukrainian fortifications in the area.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Sanctions “have practically broken all the logistics in our country,” according to Russian Transport Minister Vitaly Savelyev. Take aviation: The United States and Europe have banned parts or services for the several hundred Boeing and Airbus jets operating in Russia, forcing Russian airlines to sharply curtail flights and cannibalize their fleets. A European Union aviation regulator said last month he was “very worried” about safety of these Western jets in Russia.
Let’s imagine that somehow, despite the sanctions, Russia staggers on with its bloody assault of Ukraine. What then? To think about Putin’s potential problems, just look at a map. Russia is the largest country in the world, by far. To support his reckless, illegal war in Ukraine, Putin has stripped forces from the Far East, the Baltic, the vast underbelly that borders South Asia. He has a country that’s in slow-motion collapse, and too few people to protect it.
Here's a summary of what OSCE does. 2/
It originated in a mid-1975 Conference held in Helsinki & it was created as a forum to discuss issues between the eastern & western bloc during the cold war. 57 countries participate.
The OSCE helps in conflict prevention, crisis management, & post-conflict rehabilitation. 3/
In effect, their primary mission is to prevent conflict, but they also contribute to arms control, promotion of human rights, free and fair elections, protection of the free press.
Since 2014, after the MH17 shootdown & the RU invasion, they've had steady presence in Ukraine.4/
This report on and evidence of war crimes committed by RU is staggering:
-Systemic, planned, deliberate & indiscriminate attacks on civilians
-Establishment of formal torture chambers & extrajudicial executions
-Mass forcible transfer & use of "filtration centers" 5/
-Widespread mass rapes & indiscriminate murders, including these acts against 100's of children
-Approved looting & resale of stolen personal property
-Conscription of Ukrainians to fight AGAINST their fellow citizens
-Use of banned weapons against UA & Ukraine citizens 6/
-Precision targeting of hundreds of protected infrastructure: Schools, hospitals, water and energy plants, military medical treatment centers
-The theft of thousands of tons of grain as part of a with a planned attempt to exacerbate famine in other regions/countries. 7/
All wide-scale & flagrant breaches of the rules of land warfare & established international law...and morality:
It is relatively easy to tie all these acts to specific violations of International Humanitarian Law under the Geneva Conventions & its additional protocols.
8/
Sherman is alleged to have said: "War is hell." Those who've experienced it - who have the responsibility of command & waging war - know that's true.
But one of the many jobs of military leaders is to "control violence."
Morality, law, training & discipline requires it. 9/
Unfortunately, there will always be conflict. But societies & humanity have evolved & attempted to reduce human suffering through:
-Trained & disciplined professional armies
-Leader accountability
-Precision weapons
-Laws & protocols
-Advanced in human morality & decency 10/
Every army will have individuals who violate these laws and standards of discipline within their ranks.
In combat, I had several instances where I had to discipline those who did.
But what Russia is doing is widespread, inherent in their actions, blessed by their leaders. 11/
That's why Putin must remain a pariah on the world stage...forever. No coming back.
That's why RU commanders must be held accountable for criminal action. "Lack of knowledge" or "just following orders" aren't excuses.
No deliberations or cease fires, continued support. 12/12
• • •
As we remember, XXI century warfare consists of more than just field battles. On the battlefield, Putin's army has shown everything it can do. And it didn’t impress. The only tactic Russia now has left at its disposal is the scorched earth tactic, based on artillery superiority
An AFU fortified area gets subjected to destructive shelling. Then Russian MoD sends in "Wagnerians" or "DPR militia", whom they do not consider people and do not include in casualty count; if there is return fire, they retreat and the shelling continues until AFU has to leave.
This approach allows them to slowly advance and avoid significant losses in the regular army (which had lost 30-50% of its personnel in the first months of the war), but now the HIMARS are dramatically changing the balance of power, leveling Russia’s artillery superiority.
4/26
That's why Putin now eagerly craves a ceasefire. Not only to draw up reserves and give the troops a breather (which Ukraine will do as well), but primarily to secure the status quo.
5/26
A truce would mean drawing a demarcation line on the map, which would determine political reality for years to come — there's nothing more permanent than the temporary. And once this truce is established, the "bad peace is better than good war" party will win in Europe.
6/26
Politicians will tell the voters the good news: we've managed to stop the war and the flow of refugees, fuel prices are going down. These immediate consequences of the truce will be immediately capitalized by European politicians and turned into votes in the coming elections
As for the deferred consequences, the fact that Putin won’t go anywhere, and will once again gather strength and anger for the next deadly and bloody attack in a few years…
8/26
...vast areas of Ukraine will remain under occupation, millions of their inhabitants will be displaced, and the evil will stay unpunished...
Well, in case of a conflict freeze, all that will be left for future generations of politicians to deal with, right?
9/26
Right now Ukraine enjoys considerable (albeit insufficient and not unconditional) support from the West. But if a "bad peace" prevails, the situation will change radically. Resuming hostilities when European voters have already breathed a sigh of relief that the war is over…
... will be infinitely more difficult politically. An attempt to de-occupy Kherson or Izium will be perceived very differently by Western society. "Everything has just calmed down, and now they're shooting again," is what many European voters will be thinking.
11/26
I'm sure they understand all this well in Kyiv; but so do they in Moscow. Putin's next big gamble in the Ukrainian war is a special operation to force a cease-fire, which would formalize the annexation, providing a several-year pause to prepare for the next phase of the war.
So how is Putin planning to achieve the truce he so desperately needs?
We saw it already in June: blackmail. Putin understands that Ukraine will not agree to any kind of truce. Public opinion in Ukraine absolutely unambiguously demands that Zelenskyy continue to fight
.
13/26
Ukraine's Achilles' heel is its dependence on the West. The war has destroyed much of its economy, and there's nothing left to fight with apart from Western armament. Kyiv can't cope without European support right now - and this creates opportunities for blackmail.
14/26
Putin's message in June was simple: "Dear Scholz, Macron, Draghi, it's either you force Zelenskyy to accept peace or I starve North Africa, you get millions of new refugees in Europe, and your governments get taken over by right-wing radicals (which I’ll finance myself)"
15/26
It was convincing, but it didn't help. When European leaders went to Kyiv in June, many wrote: "They’re coming to press Zelensky into concessions". They also had a powerful lever in their hands in the form of the EU candidate status.
16/26
The experts were wrong to think ill of the European leaders, however - Putin's hunger blackmail did not work, values and principles prevailed.
But as we know, Putin has two allies. And since General Hunger failed, Field Marshal Cold will now be sent to the front lines.
17/26
If Putin has learned one thing during his 22 years in power, that's the thing: if you cannot deal with Western politicians directly, you need to work with their electorate. They depend on public opinion too (and this is their strength, which Putin considers a weakness).
18/26
Winter is coming. This makes it possible to play the gas card with maximum efficiency in the coming months. This is what Putin will do — he will try to scare the Europeans with the prospect of freezing to death in their homes this winter.
19/26
To do this, he will use all the agents and resources he has accumulated over the years: corrupt politicians and journalists, marginal parties and "experts" who will say profoundly: "Of course we pity Ukraine, but we have to do what Putin wants so that Europe doesn't freeze..."
What can we do about it all?
1. Forewarned is forearmed. Don't be fooled. Europe may have a difficult winter ahead of it (although its dependence of households on Russian gas should not be exaggerated)
21/26
But this is the necessary price of the past eight years of indifference and inaction. We must get through this winter: if we give in now and cave in to Putin's conditions, then in 6-8 years Europe will almost certainly face another winter, the nuclear one.
22/26
2. Ukraine's window of opportunity to de-occupy Kherson and other territories is rather small: the closer to winter, the more important factor will be gas blackmail (obviously, Ukraine is well aware of this, and is preparing for a counterattack at a rapid pace).
23/26
Serious military achievements are needed not only in and of themselves, but also to handle the public opinion in Europe: to make the public believe in the possibility of a Ukrainian victory and be ready to grit their teeth and endure.
24/26
3. Remember that it's not by choice that Putin resorts to hunger and cold blackmail. His military gamble has failed. Putin is rapidly losing support inside Russia. He also realizes that he has only 2-3 months to secure a ceasefire on favorable terms.
25/26
These will probably be the most difficult 2-3 months, but then Putin will lose. He has already lost, of course, but it is now necessary to crush him, not to let him crawl away. To withstand his final blow.
26/26
• • •