Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces conducted a limited and unsuccessful ground attack north of Kharkiv City on July 21.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance in the Velyki Prokhody-Pytomnyk direction.[18] Russian forces also intensified artillery strikes on Kharkiv City on July 21, striking exclusively civilian infrastructure in an unspecified district of the city.[19] Russian forces continued launching tube and rocket artillery at Kharkiv City and settlements to the north, northeast, and southeast and launched airstrikes on Verkhnii Saltiv and Rtyshchivka.[20]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted artillery strikes to the southeast of Izyum toward Slovyansk and to the southwest of Izyum toward Barvinkove but did not make any confirmed ground attacks in the direction of Slovyansk on July 21.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Dolyna, Bohorodychne, and Adamivka, northwest of Slovyansk, as well as various settlements in the vicinity of Barvinkove.[7] Russian Telegram channel Readovka noted that Russian efforts to advance toward Slovyansk are likely continually stymied by the challenging hilly and forested terrain surrounding the city and claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain control of the dominant heights around Slovyansk, especially to the south near Kramatorsk and to the east in Raihorodok.[8] Readovka’s assessment of Russian positions relative to terrain in this area is consistent with ISW’s control of terrain assessment.
Russian forces continued limited and unsuccessful ground attacks east of Siversk on July 21. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces failed to advance from the Lysychansk Oil Refinery in Verkhnokamyanka in the direction of Ivano-Darivka, about 5 km southeast of Siversk.[9] Russian troops also conducted air and artillery strikes on Siversk and Ukrainian positions in the surrounding settlements of Serebryanka, Spirne, and Hryhorivka.[10] Russian Telegram channel Readovka noted that—similar to the situation in Slovyansk—Russian forces around Siversk have not yet captured the dominant heights surrounding the city, which leaves them vulnerable to continued Ukrainian artillery fire from fortified positions.[11]
Russian forces continued limited ground attacks south of Bakhmut on July 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported unsuccessful Russian assaults along the Klynove-Vershyna line, about 10 km southeast of Bakhmut.[12] Russian troops also continued to fight further south of Bakhmut in Novoluhanske and near the Vuhledar Power Plant.[13] Russian forces will likely attempt to push west on Bakhmut from positions on the eastern parts of Pokrovske and continued to shell Bakhmut and surrounding settlements.[14]
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact on July 21. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok claimed that Russian forces are fighting near Novoselivka Druha, Kamyanka, and Novobakhmutivka in order to push toward Avdiivka.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff reported Russian strikes around the Donetsk City area and toward the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[16]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces conducted a limited ground offensive in Kherson Oblast but otherwise focused on maintaining defensive positions on the Southern Axis on July 21. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces attempted a failed platoon-sized ground assault near Andriivka and toward Lozove, Kherson Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces retain a bridgehead on the Inhulets River.[21] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck industrial areas, energy infrastructure, and humanitarian trucks in Mykolaiv City with seven S-300 anti-air missiles.[22] Russian forces shelled the Nikopol area of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS), likely from positions in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian ammunition depots and a command post in the Kherson, Beryslav, and Kakhova areas of Kherson Oblast.[24] Russian forces continued shelling along the entire line of contact.[25]
Russian forces may be storing heavy military equipment in the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to protect it from Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian state energy enterprise Energoatom reported that Russian forces demanded access to the engine rooms of reactors 1, 2, and 3 on July 20 and transferred 14 pieces of heavy military equipment and ammunition to the engine room of reactor 2 on July 21.[26] Energoatom reported that the Russian equipment is placed closed to highly combustible materials and makes the engine room inaccessible to emergency services in case of a fire. Energoatom warned that the detonation of the Russian ammunition at the Zaporizhzhia NPP would cause a disaster on the same scale as the Chernobyl disaster.[27] Odesa Military Administration Spokesman Serhiy Bratchuk stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian military position in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, on July 21.[28]
www.understandingwar.org/...
First thing to note is just how openly damning both were about Russian behaviour in the Battle of the Donbas, and how complimentary about Ukrainian defense. They are certainly not afraid of humiliating the Russians publicly with discussions of their military failings.
This answer from General Milley (importantly not part of prepared opening address but an impromptu response, sums of his analysis of the Battle of the Donbas.) Its extremely damning of the Russians, tiny gains, huge costs, and primitive tactics.
The last dig is important. After firing huge numbers of artillery, the Russians advanced a few miles, and eventually the Ukrainians withdrew from Severodonetsk in good order and prepared a new defensive position. Milley is saying the Russians have failed basic military tests.
Moreover its clear that both Austin and Milley believe HIMARS (and other NATO standard ranged weapons) are basically making any other major Russian forward movement almost impossible. The amount of time they spent talking about Ukr use of HIMARS was rather extraordinary.
Basically Ukrainians have been trained up on the systems, know what they are doing and are taking out the right targets.
This long, unscripted answer by Milley also important. Talks about the importance of all the ranged systems and why this gives Ukraine an advantage. Also makes the worthwhile point that its not the number of HIMARS systems that always important, ammo supplies in ways matter more.
Also, who really matters in helping Ukraine--no hesitation. Its Poland, Czech, UK, Baltics and Scandinavians. They get the name checks. Germany and France never mentioned in any way. Special praise directed to Poland.
While Austin and Milley don’t say it outright, its probably fair to say that they don’t see Russian making many more advances considering what little they could accomplish before the new systems went into operation. Culmination, or whatever you call it, for Russia in Donbas coming
worth noting that @TheStudyofWar update last night, produced after this press conference, reinforces this argument. Russia might take Siversk, but unlikely to take Bakhmut or Slovyansk.
By any standards this represents a Russian strategic failure in the Battle of the Donbas. Worth also noting that the Ukrainian conversation in the last few days is no longer about the difficulties in the Donbas--its about how Ukraine can retake lost territories.
Pretty sure a Ukrainian counterattack is going to be the major story going forward.
Russians really are taking troops from anywhere at present , another reason why the swing to Ukraine should happen. In July specialist troops from the Kurile islands were found in Ukraine.
Russia Sends Pacific Island ‘Machine Gun Artillery Division’ To Ukraine
Russia may have stripped away a substantial portion of its Kurile Island garrison near Japan to serve as assault troops in Ukraine—a role those soldiers weren’t equipped to perform.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/07/20/russia-sends-pacific-island-machine-gun-artillery-division-to-ukraine/?ss=aerospace-defense&sh=2d88317236b2
Another similar evaluation to add to the trend.
https://twitter.com/tomrtweets/status/1550132186254397441
Super low fire evidence being recorded in the Donbas today, lowest of the week. Russians really do seem to be struggling generating sustained heavy fire compared to a few weeks ago.
update for this evening also sounds like Russians are unable to generate any forceful offensive actions (you need to use a translator but here is the tweet with the link).
https://twitter.com/GeneralStaffUA/status/1550153929748611073?s=20&t=KqZKrSyZP7SnXaK06ors8g
• • •