As much as I’m rooting for Ukraine, it’s important to acknowledge when Russia has advanced their interests. While they have overpaid in soldier lives and materials for the taking of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, they have moved forward their logistical capacity in the taking of this area. While most commentators suggest Russia’s goal here was to “complete” an Oblast, I’ve always assumed Russia’s interest in this area was to take control of a key intersection of rail lines.
We’ve seen in many places how important rail lines are to Russia. Russia has been directly pushing to Bakhmut from Popasna (bottom middle of map above) with little success once they get away from Popasna and closer to Bakhmut. There is no rail line. The E/W line is further north where Ukraine has been supplying Lysychansk.
With the taking of both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk Russia now has an uncontested N/S railroad in this area. I assume the rail bridge between the two has fallen, so the line won’t be fully useful until that is repaired, replaced, or bypassed. But this connection eventually means supplies do not need to be funneled through a single N/S rail line closer to Luhansk. This reduces traffic on that line and distance traveled.
I expect Siversk to fall next to Russia but not simply because it’s next on the map, but because it will connect a rail line to Lyman and Izyum. Again, this will require fixing/rebuilding a rail bridge, but when done we will potentially see new relative strength in Izyum. The bigger danger here to Ukraine is now Bakhmut.
If Russia takes Siversk they will have a rail line to inch closer to Bakhmut from the north. Instead of running out of steam due to distance from the railhead, they can follow the railhead down. I expect progress here before Sloviansk due to this rail line. The E/W line near Sloviansk has two bridges and the Russians have not successful taken the West Bank near Sloviansk. And until they take and fix the bridge near Siversk, that line won’t be as useful. But the line from Siversk to Bakhmut has no river crossings and will therefor be more useful quickly.
Why is rail so much more efficient than trucks? The North American train companies estimate rail freight is 3-4 times more fuel efficient than trucks. More relevant to Russia, it’s also far more person-power efficient. A single train can easily have 100 cars with each car able to hold 3 times as much than a single truck trailer (US semi trailers, not shorter box trucks). So one train is worth 300 trucks. As Russia doesn’t appear to have ideal trucks, one train could be worth double that.
So clearly my niche here on Daily Kos has become Ukrainian Railroads. Not what I could have come close to predicting in January. ;)
Also know, I don’t expect any Russian gains to be inevitable here. Ukraine has chosen to defend in depth, giving up land at times for strategic purposes. But they’ve also held strong in places (Kharkiv in the north) when they have chosen. I do expect Russia to eventually run out of steam and Ukraine to start pushing back, but not until Ukraine shows us it is ready to do so. Until that time, I continue to expect Ukraine to give up land in places where it is useful to them.
