Earlier this week the airfield at Novofedorivka in Crimea was the scene of several large explosions and considerable damage. Some initially thought this was a Ukrainian strike on munitions bunkers, which was a perfectly acceptable conclusion with the evidence at the time. Now that we have the day after satellite image we can see two intact munitions bunkers, but three big craters in a jet parking area. So what happened here? (And contrary to the title, I obviously don’t know for sure)
Let’s begin with our most concrete evidence. We have 3 really big craters of roughly the same size that Elliot Higgens on Twitter estimates at 25-30 meters in diameter. We also have video of the explosions and we see lots of smoke already spreading far away before the first pair of explosions happen. We then see two big simultaneous fireballs. One video shows a third big fireball, but the video is edited so its hard to tell how much latter. The videos can be found below. Note that that the first picture is his guessing the explosions came from the two munitions bunkers. The later satellite shows this guess to be wrong so just ignore that part. Do check out the videos.
We also have the last satellite pass 4 hours before the explosions below. I have put arrows pointing out where the three craters will form. If you look closely it is possible that those fuzzy shapes where the craters will be are fuel trucks.
The rest of the satellite images of the aftermath show no other obvious craters that I could see. Certainly nothing the size of what we see here. There is serious damage to multiple buildings and widespread fire damage.
So what caused those craters? If Elliot Higgens is correct with his estimate of 25-30 meters, then no known munition by Ukraine could have caused those. For comparison sake, the US Mark 84 bomb weighs 2039 lbs with 945 lbs of explosives and creates a 15 meter crater (on average). The largest Ukrainian munition with the range to get here that we know about is the Hrim-2 which has a 1,100 lbs warhead. That’s larger than the Mark 84, but not nearly enough to make a 25 meter crater. The Hrim-2 is also under development and not confirmed to be active.
But let’s assume for the moment that it is active. First we’d need to explain the size of the crater, namely how this missile can cause a significantly bigger crater than expected. Next, we need to explain some really curious target selection. If that is a “grouping” demonstrating relative accuracy of the missile, why did they attack that section. Did they just miss those planes parked together? Possible. And with explosions that large its not really a miss. But why three missiles when one would do? Why not attack the munitions bunkers or the fuel farm as well? We also have no evidence of incoming missiles in the videos, either visual or on audio. That doesn’t preclude that our sources were simply the wrong angle or insufficient in some way, but it doesn’t help the Hrim-2 theory either. Finally, we’d still need to explain the considerable smoke before the first explosions. Presumably a fourth smaller missile that we can’t find the crater for? Not impossible but I’m not convinced.
Some people have put forward the idea of these being munitions explosions. In the video we see a large fireballs of black smoke with no “fireworks” indicative of munitions cooking off. Go compare it to earlier videos and the ones these fireballs most closely resemble would be the fuel depot hits.
So could it be fuel trucks? We do see what could be fuel trucks in the image before the explosion. Do fuel trucks explode with that much force and fireball? Check out the video below. Watch all the way through. The initial fire is not the explosion, that comes in the middle. Then they show the crater, which is complicated by being on a bridge, but still impressive. Viewer discretion advised.
I would certainly say plausible. I certainly think it’s more likely than a previously unknown Ukrainian munition, or a known one with a hard to explain bigger crater. The simultaneous explosions would need to be addressed, but that may also be coincidental. Yes, sometimes random events appear coordinated because sometimes that’s what random results are.
But if it is fuel trucks, then what set it off? Now we’re into far more speculative territory. As we see in the truck video from Italy, a fuel truck can burn before exploding. So it’s possible the early smoke is from 2 or 3 fuel trucks burning. The first two explosions are simultaneous, so whatever set them off needs to have affected at least two of them at the same time.
Let’s start with the simplest possible explanation. The Russians had a fuel spill in that area and a cigarette butt set it on fire. I’ve worked loading and unloading 767 cargo planes. I was present when a K-loader (used to load the planes) went over a raised part of the tarmac which tore a hole in the bottom of the loader. The fuel came out fast and spread fast. It is not easy or quick to clean up a fuel spill. We cleaned it by laying down material to absorb it, then sweep that up. Had an ignition source been present, we would have been in trouble. Particularly with a 767 overhead. And this was a really small spill. If an actually fuel truck has a serious spill it would be far more dangerous. I personally feel this is the simplest and most likely cause. Related scenarios would be a grass fire, old leaky oil drums or a mishap loading a munition onto a plane.
But it’s possible it could have been Ukrainian special ops. While they could ignite these fuel trucks in a few different ways, the simplest would probably be a switchblade drone or two. A single switchblade could target a nearby airplane starting a fire that spread to parked fuel trucks. A double switchblade might have two switchblades hitting the fuel trucks at roughly the same time leading to the later explosions. Provide your own reasons as to why Ukraine picked the hypothetical targets that they did. Also possible is a relatively simple consumer drone with nothing more than a hand grenade crashing into something explosive. Yes, this could have been done by a 16 year old. Imagine what that would be like for her (or him/them).
Finally, it could have been a single missile strike leading to fuel truck secondary explosions. It would most likely be a smaller missile as we see no obvious crater, so maybe there wasn’t one. Both Neptune and HARM have the range and their munition size is not important in this scenario. There are other possible systems such as Hrim-2 which haven’t been confirmed to work yet. It could be an older soviet missile which might explain a lack of obvious targeting from reduced accuracy. And of course you can go leafing through the US missile buyers guide and select any of a wide range of options.
So what was it? I’m about 90% certain it was three fuel trucks making the craters and the large explosions. As for what set it off, who knows. The accident scenario involves the fewest moving parts but I can’t rule out Ukrainian action. We’ll probably need to wait till wars end for the real story (if anyone left alive knows it).
Friday, Aug 12, 2022 · 6:10:27 AM +00:00
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Peter Olandt
Apologies I was unable participate in the comments today. I don’t have a lot of time during most days. Now should anyone want to hire me to write for a living, I would entertain the offer and have more time for comments. ;). Thanks to everyone for commenting. Friday morning I’m publishing a response to the question of can a fuel tanker leave a crater.