So this was ANOTHER amazing news week but the event that made me most hopeful was not reported in the Washington Post or the NYT.
Instead, it is what I observed on a road trip.
We were on vacation this week in DC. I always enjoy visiting the capital, so it was really fun, despite the heat. We saw family and visited museums and did our first trip to the National Zoo. Pandas!! Just adorable as you might imagine.
On the way down (and back) we drove through rural PA.
I was reminded of our drive through rural PA in the summer of ‘16. It was pretty much the same route that we took this time. My memory of that trip is strong because what I saw was shocking to me (at the time). Little town, after little town, was littered with Trump signs. Trump signs everywhere. On lawn after lawn. Painted on barn after barn. Big signs. Little signs. Professionally made signs. Handwritten signs. They were everywhere.
And not one Hillary sign in that entire part of the state. Not one.
It was the first time I thought “My God. We may really lose this. Trump really may get elected.”
You may or may not recall but the polls were very consistent at that time in calling for an HRC victory. It was the common wisdom. We were all worried, of course, but very few people really thought he would win.
But that drive through rural PA suggested to me that we were missing something. Something was spreading that pollsters were not seeing. A fervor and anger and enthusiasm had taken root. It was evident on every lawn, on the side of every barn, and in every open field.
I was very worried.
So I traveled that route again this past week with some trepidation in my heart.
What I saw lifted my spirits.
I am happy to tell you that what I saw on that same drive this time gave me hope. Yes, there were still some Trump signs. There were still some houses just bathing in Trump Kool-Aid. But they were few and far between. As were the “Lets Go Brandon” signs. Of course, this is not a presidential election year, but, as we all have seen, the most passionate Trump supporters have kept up with the signs, and there were precious few of those.
More importantly, on that trip in 2016, I didn’t see one HRC sign. Not one. But this time I saw more than a couple of Fetterman signs. Not tons of them. But they were there. In the most rural, trumpiest parts of PA, there were Fetterman signs.
and not one — not one — Dr Oz sign.
It was a marked change from 2016.
And it made me so hopeful.
We all know how important November is to saving our Democracy.
538 has our odds of keeping the House at only 20% but I really think we can do it. We are passing legislation. Biden’s #s are going up. Inflation is leveling off. The Republicans are crazy. And people are tired of it. I saw the signs in PA and I believe them.
What can we do to make this longshot a reality?
I set up a new fundraising challenge for us! This money will go just to the House candidates who are in swing districts (38 of them). The Senate candidates have been doing great at raising money but these house races are less successful and we REALLY need them. So this new ActBlue account gives money to the 38 races that will determine control of the House and those races alone.
Rather than thinking about where to donate, here is a one-stop location to securing the House.
Remember, if we lose the House we not only lose the ability to get things done, but we bring in 24/7 hearings on Hunter Biden and Marjorie Taylor Green chairing committees. It will be ugly.
But we can win!
Our goal is high — 38,000 but I know we can do it. And if make our goal, that will mean sending $1000 to every swing district Democrat!
Every dollar counts! If you can, please consider sending something to this link:
Now onto the good news!
Democrats are doing great things for the American people
Huge day yesterday for America!
House passes Inflation Reduction Act, sending climate and health bill to Biden
House Democrats on Friday approved a sprawling bill to lower prescription drug costs, address global warming, raise taxes on some billion-dollar corporations and reduce the federal deficit, sending to President Biden the long-delayed, last component of his economic agenda in time for this year’s elections.
The bill, known as the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, secures the largest-ever investment to tackle climate change, with roughly $370 billion dedicated to curbing harmful emissions and promoting green technology. The bill also moves to cap and lower seniors’ drug costs while sparing about 13 million low- and middle-income Americans from increases in their insurance premiums that otherwise would occur next year.
Schumer celebrates passage of Inflation Reduction Act
As the House voted to pass the Inflation Reduction Act, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who shepherded the once-imperiled proposal through the Senate, celebrated Democrats’ success.
“Democrats got it done! For the people who thought Washington was broken and couldn’t get things done, Democrats showed we can deliver real change that matters to everyday Americans,” Schumer said in a statement. “After the previous administration made big promises but failed to deliver, Senate and House Democrats along with President Biden have taken action to address many of the challenges faced by American families.”
The measure, Schumer noted, is heading to Biden’s desk and will “deliver climate justice and help for America’s working families.”
“This legislation tops off a highly productive six weeks that serves as a testament to Democrats’ persistence and hard work to deliver on our promise to the American people,” Schumer said.
The Inflation Reduction Act Passed the House!
Final passage of the bill would give Democrats a chance to achieve major policy objectives ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, at a critical time when the party is fighting to retain control of its narrow majorities in Congress.
The sweeping bill – named the Inflation Reduction Act – would represent the largest climate investment in US history and make major changes to health policy by giving Medicare the power for the first time to negotiate the prices of certain prescription drugs and extending expiring health care subsidies for three years. The legislation would reduce the deficit, be paid for through new taxes – including a 15% minimum tax on large corporations and a 1% tax on stock buybacks – and boost the Internal Revenue Service’s ability to collect.
It would raise over $700 billion in government revenue over 10 years and spend over $430 billion to reduce carbon emissions and extend subsidies for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act and use the rest of the new revenue to reduce the deficit.
Democrats are saving families a lot of money on health care. It’s a big deal.
The health-care aspects of the bill are nearly as historic as its climate change provisions. The New York Times reports, “The Senate bill, which the House is expected to pass on Friday, then send to President Biden’s desk, could save many Medicare beneficiaries hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a year. Its best-known provision would empower Medicare to negotiate prices with drug makers with the goal of driving down costs — a move the pharmaceutical industry has fought for years, and one that experts said would help lower costs for beneficiaries.” Medicare recipients would also get an annual cap of $2000 for out-of-pocket prescription drug costs and a $35 monthly limit on insulin.
The benefit is not just monetary, the Times points out. “To hear the voices of older Americans who confront high drug costs month in and month out is to hear fear and worry, anger and stress. Many say they are figuring out how to get by, skipping vacations and other niceties for which they saved.” To paraphrase President Biden, the bill would give Medicare patients a little peace of mind.
The health-care provisions are not limited to Medicare. A report from the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way finds, “A typical family with health coverage at work will save about $1,000 a year, and a family with coverage through an exchange will save about $1,400 a year” between 2022 and 2025. Those savings would come primarily from three provisions. First is the bill’s extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies. The second is its fixes for the ACA’s “family glitch,” which ensures a person can get premium assistance if their employer-sponsored coverage is not “affordable,” but doesn’t extend that to their family. And third is the bill’s provisions allowing the Health and Human Services secretary to negotiate drug prices and to restrict the rate of increases for prescription drugs.
In short, there is big savings to be had for a lot of Americans. Third Way’s deputy director of economic communications and health policy Ladan Ahmadi tells me this is the most significant savings for Americans since the ACA was passed because “the IRA has supercharged the savings in the family glitch fix.”
Democrats try a new campaign strategy — getting things done
Democrats have been acting like Republicans lately. They’ve been strategic, disciplined and tough — racking up accomplishments that will affect people’s lives, jobs and health; strengthen America, its allies and its institutions; and make historic investments in clean energy as climate change threatens the Earth. They are not performing shock theater. They and President Biden are governing.
In the past few days Democrats have managed a feat that is routine in GOP circles: From moderates to progressives, from Los Angeles to New York City and suburbia to West Virginia, they stuck together on the Inflation Reduction Act once known (and once much more expensive) as Biden’s Build Back Better agenda.
There are signs of Democrats showing unusual strategic spine. For instance, in a Republican primary campaign in western Michigan, Democrats spent more than $400,000 on an ad that attacked Trump-endorsed House candidate John Gibbs, an election denier who worked in the Trump administration. In reality, Democrats were trying to raise Gibbs’ profile and help him defeat Rep. Peter Meijer, who had voted to impeach Trump and whom they viewed as a tougher general election opponent in a toss-up district. Gibbs did beat Meijer, perhaps at least partly thanks to the Democrats’ meddling, even as some blasted them for helping oust a principled Republican.
I get the moral qualms, but not the political ones. This is a district that leans slightly Democratic. A win this fall by either Gibbs or Meijer would help put Republican election objectors and deniers in charge of the House, its committees and a wave of revenge investigations. So why not try to raise the odds a Democrat will win? This is politics, not church. Keeping the pro-democracy party in power is paramount when the alternative is Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) as House speaker and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) as Judiciary chairman.
The Kansas abortion referendum, in which 59% voted not to remove abortion protections from the state constitution, is another example of smart Democratic politics.
Senate Democrats managed to find their inner Mitch McConnell after the Senate Republican leader from Kentucky threatened that if Democrats continued to work toward a separate party-line deal on health costs, climate and taxes, he would block the CHIPS Act meant to bolster U.S. semiconductor chip production, research and competitiveness. The Democratic package seemed dead of infighting, and the CHIPS bill passed with bipartisan support. But just a few hours after that, when McConnell had lost his leverage, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer of New York and Energy chairman Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) announced they did indeed have a deal — and now that Democrats have passed it, Biden plans to sign it next week.
Want to see Democrats do more great things? Please consider donating to GNR Saves The House
Our goal is high — 38,000 but I know we can do it. And if we do, we will send $1000 to every swing district Democrat!
Every dollar counts! If you can, please consider sending something to this link:
GNR Saves The House
Good Economic News
Finally, Some Good News on Inflation
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported something we haven’t seen since the depths of the pandemic recession: a month without inflation. That is, the average price of the goods and services consumers buy was no higher (actually slightly lower) in July than it was in June.
Inflation is finally slowing down.
just because prices as a whole will continue to rise doesn’t mean that everything will be this expensive forever. Prices for many goods increased sharply during the pandemic as demand for goods soared, and economists say that certain categories could eventually see some price declines.
“Will prices go back to where they were in a pre-pandemic sense? Probably not,” said Michael Gapen, the head of US economics at Bank of America. “But is there room for some prices to fall fairly dramatically in the direction of where they were in the pre-pandemic era? I think the answer to that is yes.”
Americans have already seen some of those price declines happen. Gas prices fell 7.7 percent from the month before, according to the Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday. After peaking at above $5 a gallon in June, gas prices have been falling steadily for weeks, although they still remain nearly $1 higher than they were a year ago.
Three cheers for government action
July’s job numbers show that the strong recovery from the COVID-19 recession continues. This is a victory for advocates of an effective Hamiltonian federal government that small government policies could never have achieved. The addition of 528,000 jobs in July gets payrolls back to where they were when COVID-19 reduced them by almost 23 million in early 2020. The rapid and relatively painless recovery that began in early 2021 is taking place because the federal government did what it needed to do. The Trump and Biden administrations and Congress spent $5-$6 trillion to put cash in the pockets of people COVID-19 put out of work, help businesses at risk of going under, and maintain state and local services until COVID-19 could be managed. Federal spending kept airlines flying, small businesses from closing or being forced to sell out at bargain basement prices, and much more.
This success should be an important lesson in the historic American debate about the role of the federal government
With Hard Work, We Can Win in November
Dems Surge By 7 Percent Against GOP In Midterm Elections Polling From Fox
In recent months, new numbers reveal Democrats surged by 7 percentage points against Republicans in generic ballot polling from Fox News. The polling asked respondents which party’s candidate they’d support in the upcoming Congressional elections without specifying a candidate by name
Tim Ryan is playing to win in Ohio
so far Ryan has seemed to want it more than Vance. As Politico reported last week, “Ryan spent more than $8 million on advertisements, including $6.5 million on television since May. But until this week, Vance’s campaign had been AWOL from the airwaves for that entire time.” While one eye-opening poll this month showed Ryan up by 11 percentage points, a more realistic assessment shows him holding about a three-point edge, according to Politico.
All things being equal, Vance should win, if narrowly. But one suspects that as it cruises toward November, today’s rickety, rudderless Republican Party may well find a way to sink itself, taking some flawed candidates down with the ship.
All of which means that Ryan and the Democrats have every reason to stay engaged in Ohio, and play to win.
New MAGA — Mothers Against Greg Abbott — Gears Up For Texas Election
It’s Mothers Against Greg Abbott, and it’s already working to turn out votes for Abbott opponent Beto O’Rourke in the November election.
The Texas Tribune calls the Political Action Committee a “potent force” with some 50,000 members on Facebook, $400,000 in donations, and hard-hitting viral social media ads.
It was launched almost a year ago on an extremely small scale by Austin mom Nancy Thompson. She was initially incensed by Abbott’s ban on COVID mask mandates, which put her medically vulnerable son at risk.
“Honestly, I just didn’t give a shit anymore,” Thompson told the Tribune about the time she spent hours, alone, holding a sign in front of the state Capitol reading: “Mothers Against Greg Abbott.”
“I was just done. I was so done,” Thompson said.
Thompson is a former Republican. But she wants her MAGA to be “a mix of Democrats, moderate Republicans and independents who are ready to work together for change for Texas,” she told the Tribune.
Flush with wins, finally COVID-free, Biden to hit the road ahead of U.S. midterms
President Joe Biden plans to travel across the United States in the coming weeks to tout a series of legislative wins on climate change, gun control and drug pricing in a bid to boost his party's chances in the looming midterm elections, White House officials said on Thursday.
His Democrats face an uphill battle to retain their narrow control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the Nov. 8 elections. Biden, whose public approval rating rose this week to its highest since early June, plans to use the recent victories in Congress to rally support for Democratic candidates, White House officials Kate Bedingfield and Anita Dunn wrote in a memo distributed to allies in the party and shared with reporters.
They did not specify where Biden would travel, but he is expected in states with hotly contested races including Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina.
Want to be a part of the hard work that helps us win in November? Please consider donating to GNR Saves The House
Our goal is high — 38,000 but I know we can do it. And if we do, we will send $1000 to every swing district Democrat!
Every dollar counts! If you can, please consider sending something to this link:
GNR Saves The House
Trump is going down
DOJ’S JUNE MAR-A-LAGO TRIP HELPS PROVE 18 USC 793E
As I noted here and here, one of the statutes that’s likely on the table for the Former President is 18 USC 793(e), basically taking national defense information you’re not authorized to have and refusing to give it back.
Regular readers of this site are familiar with this statute because I’ve covered tons of cases charging it: Reality Winner and Hal Martin and Joshua Schulte, among others.
But I went back and found some pattern jury instructions for the unlawful retention charge, and because of that meeting in June, DOJ has most of what they’d need to charge the Former President.
Here’s what jurors would be asked to decide:
Did the defendant, without authorization, have possession of, access to, or control over a document that was National Defense Information?
Yes. The Archives spent a year telling him he was not authorized to have it under the Presidential Records Act.
Did the document in question relate to the national defense?
We don’t know what the documents in question are, but given WaPo’s description in February, then absolutely.
Bonus fact: The jury decides if something was NDI, not the former Original Classification Authority (the fancy term for, “the President gets to decide whether something is classified or not”). So if the agency whose document Trump stole is still trying to protect it from hostile powers, if that agency still believes it is classified, if it remains secret, then a jury is likely to find that it’s NDI.
Did the defendant have reason to believe the information could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation?
Trump is such a psychopath that the answer to this might normally be in question. After all, he routinely treated top secret intelligence like it was toilet paper or party favors for visiting Russians.
Except DOJ went to Trump’s residence in June and told him this information could harm the US. Then they wrote him a letter, saying that it could harm the US and could he please put a padlock on the basement room that had, up until that point, been accessible to all the suspected foreign assets who’ve paid the price of admission to Mar-a-Lago.
Did the defendant retain the above material and fail to deliver it to the officer or employee of the United States entitled to receive it?
Yes! The Archives asked and asked and asked. And then DOJ went to his home and asked again!
Did he keep this document willfully?
Yup. Again, DOJ asked and asked and asked. Trump exhibited awareness the Archives were asking. He stopped in to say “hi!” when Jay Bratt, the head of DOJ’s espionage section, came to visit. And he still hoarded the document.
By going to Mar-a-Lago and asking for these documents in person on June 3, DOJ made it very easy to prove that Trump had been asked, but refused, to give any classified documents found in Trump’s possession on Monday back.
Trump claims he declassified all the documents at Mar-a-Lago. Even if that’s true, it probably doesn’t matter.
such a claim would not settle the matter. For one thing, two of the laws that a search warrant executed at Mar-a-Lago this week referred to — Sections 1519 and 2071 of Title 18 of the United States Code — make the taking or concealment of government records a crime regardless of whether they had anything to do with national security.
For another, laws against taking or hoarding material with restricted national-security information, which generally carry heavier penalties than theft of ordinary documents, do not always line up with whether the files are technically classified.
That is because some criminal laws enacted by Congress to protect certain national-security information operate separately from the executive branch’s system of classifying documents — created by presidents using executive orders — as “confidential,” “secret” or “top secret.”
As a result, the Espionage Act makes no reference to whether a document has been deemed classified. Instead, it makes it a crime to retain, without authorization, documents related to the national defense that could be used to harm the United States or aid a foreign adversary.
What was in the boxes, and why does it matter?
These nuclear-related materials are classified at stratospherically high levels. Although most people are familiar with categories such as “Secret” or “Top Secret” (TS) certain kinds of documents and reports are even more tightly controlled with additional categories such as SCI, for Sensitive Compartmented Information; CNWDI, for Critical Nuclear Weapons Design Information; and SAP, for Special Access Programs. According to The New York Times, Trump was holding documents marked TS/SCI, among other classifications
Sitting presidents can see them all; contrary to popular belief, they do not have a security clearance. Instead, their election to the office means that they have the trust and confidence of the American people. Former presidents, however, have no such access, and when the Justice Department demanded that Trump return what he took, (including by subpoena), he failed to do so. This is something of a mystery in itself; Trump had already handed back 15 boxes of documents, but he dug in his heels on returning anything more.
I know it’s been said many times, but this time, Trump could finally be facing real legal trouble. In the meantime, however, we should all remain calm. If any of the materials in Trump’s possession were compromised, they may (by definition) cause exceptionally grave damage to our national security—but so far, we have no evidence that this has happened, and we should be cautious in any further speculation.
Republicans went crazy over the Trump search. Now they look idiotic.
The more we learn about the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago, the sillier — and more sinister — the overcaffeinated Republican defenses of former president Donald Trump look.
His followers — which means pretty much the whole of the Republican Party — took up the cry based on no more information than that. Fox News host Mark Levin called the search “the worst attack on this republic in modern history, period.” Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) called it “corrupt & an abuse of power.” Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) compared the FBI to “the Gestapo.” Not to be outdone, former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Whackadoodle) said the FBI was the “American Stasi,” and compared its agents to wolves “who want to eat you.” “Today is war,” declared Steven Crowder, a podcaster with a YouTube audience of 5.6 million people. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) tweeted “DEFUND THE FBI!” Former Trump aide Stephen K. Bannon, among many others, suggested that the FBI and the Justice Department (“essentially lawless criminal organizations”) might have planted evidence.
Only now, as Paul Harvey used to say, are we hearing the rest of the story — and what has been reported so far bears no relation to the persecution fantasies of Trump and his cult followers.
This new information turns the Trump narrative — that he is being treated worse than anyone ever in all of U.S. history — on its head.
The right now appears to be in disarray. The ex-president’s old story has been rendered “inoperative,” as Nixon press secretary Ron Ziegler used to say, and they need a new one.
Scott Perry’s phone was seized. Here’s what that tells us.
According to hearing testimony, Perry acted as a bridge between then-assistant attorney general Jeffrey Clark and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, pushing Clark forward as a possible replacement for acting attorney general Jeffrey Rosen, who was resisting Trump’s fake-elector scheme. Without Perry’s intervention, it’s not clear Clark could have made a move to take Rosen’s job.
Perry also pushed to Meadows the nutty conspiracy that Italian satellites were used to change Trump votes to votes for Joe Biden. And Perry allegedly attended a Dec. 21, 2020, meeting at the White House with other MAGA hard-liners to discuss Trump retaining power. To top it all off, he later asked for a pardon, according to testimony from Cassidy Hutchinson. (Perry has denied this allegation.)
Following the utter meltdown from the GOP after the Mar-a-Lago document retrieval, “seizing a phone is a poke in the eye with a sharp stick,” Eisen said. In other words, Attorney General Merrick Garland will not be intimidated or deterred by Republican caterwauling. If he has probable cause of a crime and finds individuals in possession of materials relating to the crime, he’s going to court to get a search warrant; of that we can now be sure.
The Perry phone warrant also comes just weeks after the phone of former Trump lawyer John Eastman was seized and a warrant was executed at Clark’s house. All appearances suggest it did not take long to cull information and to find a critical link to Perry from there; the available testimony indicates it certainly would be logical for investigators to pursue Perry after a review of Clark’s phone.
On The Lighter Side
Before we go, please consider donating to GNR Saves The House
Our goal is high — 38,000 but I know we can do it. And if we do, we will send $1000 to every swing district Democrat!
Every dollar counts! If you can, please consider sending something to this link:
GNR Saves The House
Other things you can do to save democracy:
And don’t lose hope. Together, we can do this!
I am so lucky and so proud to be in this with all of you ✊🏼✊🏾✊🏽🧡💚💛💜✊🏾✊🏽✊🏻