As our primary night live coverage steams towards midnight on the East Coast, all eyes are now on the special election in NY-19. A number of pundits predicted a Republican win here, given the relative lack of spending on the Democratic side (the Dems might have been yielding to practicality: both candidates are prohibitive favorites in different districts come November) and a well-known name on the GOP side in former Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, who ran for Governor in 2018. Two polls, one by the DCCC and one by the left-leaning Data For Progress, both showed Molinaro leading Democrat Pat Ryan (the County Executive in Ulster County.
So, where are we?
- With roughly 90% of the vote counted, in a mild upset, Democrat Pat Ryan has a 52-48 lead, a raw vote edge of about 4100 votes.
- HOWEVER: Several counties appear to be still counting election day votes, which have strongly favored the Republican. In particular, Otsego County is sitting on an estimated 6000-7000 votes which will almost certainly lean to Molinaro.
- BUT: The two leading Democratic districts have turned OUT, with Columbia County and Ulster County ranking first and third in turnout relative to the 2018 general election (Molinaro’s Dutchess County is second).
- ALSO: There is an undetermined number of late-arriving mail ballots still waiting to arrive at county boards of elections, and they should favor Ryan.
So what does this all mean? It means this one is likely to be very close when all is said and done. And, in a Biden +2 district, to echo a refrain from past primary/special election coverage, this wouldn’t be happening in a “red wave” environment.