A few weeks back (before any inkling of the Inflation Reduction Act deal) I posted a Special Edition of “This Week In Congress (TWIC)” which I entitled For The Lack of Two Senators - Part One! where I explored the many Progressive Bills passed by the House that had become stuck in the Senate’s In Basket, largely because of the two Dem. Senators pictured above. In Part One, I tried to show how close we are to getting this legislation passed and signed into law if we only hold our majority in the House and flip at least two more Senate seats to make Manchin’s and Sinema’s votes IRRELEVENT!
Now I’m happy to report that we got some of the things we wanted from the Build Back Better (BBB) Bill with the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) under Budget Reconciliation rules, due to the unexpected last minute cooperation of Manchin and Sinema. Why did they cooperate? No one really knows for sure, but if you allow me to take a little tangent from the main topic of this post, I will layout my theory from a previous comment:
The one thing that Manchin and Sinema fear the most is political IRRELEVANCY! They would like nothing better than to see the Senate remain at a 50-50 split where they can continue to be the King and Queen of the Senate, deeming with the power of their votes what legislation lives or dies and its content. It’s the only way they can keep raking in those Bucks from their Big Donors. Now looking at the polls on Senate races over the past two weeks or so, as I’m sure they have, they probably see the prospects of the Dems. picking up two more seats as growing increasingly possible, which would leave them in the political wilderness and dry up the Big Donor $$. So Manchinema may have thought they might want to start cooperating with the Dem. Caucus on things so they can try to get back into the good graces of Dem. leadership to preserve some degree of influence within the Dem. Caucus in case they are no longer the deciding votes in 2023.
Anyway, that’s my somewhat wacky theory.
Now on to the main topic of For “The Lack of Two Senators — Part Two” which explores the question of what Democrats should run on in 2022?
Listening to Progressive media (e.g. MSNBC, etc.) and even some of the DK folks around here, the Democrats need to pick a National issue and run on it. Some say it should be exclusively abortion, others advocate focusing on our legislative economic accomplishments to help the middle class and poor, while others say it’s preserving democracy, and so on and so forth. But my question to all these “knowledgeable” political pundits is:
Who says we have to choose?
Why not run on them all (i.e., the “Shotgun Approach”), or at least in some cases a whittled down list of issues that best fit your District or State!
Since every candidate can’t run on every single issue out there, I have put together a list of the major ones in alphabetical order below, followed by a semi-deep dive into each one:
Abortion
Democracy
Economy (Working Class type)
Gun Violence
Health Care Costs
Privacy Rights
State/District Specific Issues
Well that’s my list. You may have your own, but let me dive into these seven (7) and explain why I chose them.
ABORTION:
This one is rather obvious and is probably on top of almost everyone’s list of winning issues for Democrats. One has to only look at the improbable results of the 60/40 Kansas Pro-Choice referendum to see why. Also, we can see the abortion issue’s effect on Special Election results for House seats such as the Democrats surprise win in the NY-19 purple District. Here Democrat Pat Ryan turned a 4 to 8 point deficit in the polls, into a +2 point win by campaigning almost exclusively on the abortion (women’s rights) issue, increasing turnout among women that the polloing failed to capture. Couple these results with the recent female voter registration surge in almost every State, and one would have to be a fool not to see what’s going on. Fortunately, for our side though, it seems few Republican candidates see what’s going on. Many have been doing a victory lap since the Dobb’s decision. Some GOP candidates have been doubling down in support of State laws with no exceptions for rape, incest or even the health of the mother. Many others have been running on a platform of supporting a national ban on abortion should they take control of Congress in 2022 and the Presidency in 2024. But as recent polling and the Kansas results show, these GOP positions on abortion are way, way out of step with the vast majority of the electorate, in all but the reddest of red States/Districts. To add to the GOP woes on the abortion issue, we have real life horror stories from the raped and pregnant 10 year old girl in Ohio forced to cross State lines for an abortion, to the woman in Louisiana forced to carry her terminal fetus to birth, all because of the crazy State by State laws stemming from the Dobb’s decision. Basically, the Republicans are suffering from Conservative over-reach, but they fail to see it.
As for the Democrats, we seem to be, for once, getting out ahead on this issue, instead of playing defense as we often have in the past. We are successfully getting the most of the media to see this not as a “pro-life” issue, but rather as a “women’s rights” issue. It is being framed (appropriately so IMO) as the government requiring women to become incubators once they become pregnant, regardless of their wishes, their health or the circumstances that caused them to become pregnant.
If Democrats continue to play their cards right, they can portray 2022 as a election where there is a stark choice on the abortion question:
1. Giving the Democrats continued control of the House and expanded control of the Senate (i.e., 2 more Dem. Senators to help end or severely limit the filibuster), will mean passing National abortion legislation that will restore the protection of Roe for women in all 50 States.
or
2. Giving the Republicans control of the House and or the Senate will mean preserving the status quo of a continued variety of abortion restrictions from State to State with little or no rights for women in some States, and the possibility of a draconian National abortion ban in 2025 depending on who wins the White House in 2024.
It’s that simple and straight forward, and Democrats need to make sure voters see it that way.
Lastly, one of my favorite sayings is that: “In politics, timing is everything.” In this case Republicans in Mississippi really “F” -ed up the timing. If they had waited a few more months to bring the Dobb’s case, it would have been on the SCOTUS 2023 docket which would have postponed the decision until June 2023 after the 2022 mid-terms. That would have kept it as a non-issue for the mid-terms and made it more likely that Republicans flip the House. But they didn’t, so now Republicans have caught the car before the mid-terms with some biting the tires (doubling down by campaigning on a national ban) and some running away (trying to avoid talking about it). Good Luck with both (failed) strategies!
DEMOCRACY:
This is really a two part issue that I’ve combined under the umbrella term “Democracy”.
The first part is about the stark choice this election presents between “democracy” and “autocracy”. Yes, this is my pick for the #1 issue in terms of importance to this country, because once we step over the line into autocracy, there is little chance of going back, at least not without substantial bloodshed. If you don’t believe me, just look at this recent NBC News poll in which “threats to democracy” ranked as voters’ top concern.
In races where our candidates are pitted against MAGA crazies, it will be easy to frame these races as a choice between “democracy” and “autocracy” based the crazy “Big Lie” statements MAGA candidates made to win their Primaries. In races where we face somewhat less radical GOP candidates, we can still draw the stark choice by putting them on the hot seat with questions reading the “Big Lie” and Trump which they don’t want to answer. This is of course a winning issue for Democrats in all but the reddest of red States/Districts since virtually all Independent and even a few Republican voters don’t want to see the GOP Crazies take control and end democracy as we know it. The only problem we face is making voters believe that such a radical shift is possible and not just us Democrats being unduly hysterical. Fortunately, we have a number of GOP candidates helping to frame this shift as a potential political reality by their past statements about overturning the past Biden election and in some cases jailing Democrats on (pardon the pun) trumped up charges. Almost all others have stayed silent on the issue, offering little or nothing deny the GOP’s radical anti-democracy agenda or to paint the issue as nothing more than Dem. crazy talk. Their silence is deafening! Even if some Independent voters still don’t believe the gravity of what’s at stake this election, they surely will believe Republican leadership (e.g., McCarthy) as they continuously call for massive investigations and more uproar if they take power. Indys don’t like a government where it’s all about Republicans and Democrats fighting all the time while nothing gets done to help the people. If we can get indys to believe the horror story that would be reality if Republicans take control of one or both Houses of Congress, they will NOT elect Republicans.
The second part of the democracy issue is Voting Rights. This can be a winning issue for our team if Democrats portray it right. That means going on offense by letting voters know some of the specific things that are in H.R.1 - For the People Act and H.R.4 - John R. Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act that would make voting easier and fairer. Such things as an Election Day National Holiday, Early Voting, No-Excuse Absentee voting, Mail-In voting, impartial Re-Districting, Federal pre-clearance of new State registration and voting requirements, mandatory campaign donor disclosures, and so on. These things are hugely popular among all voters, even Republicans, polling generally in to 60% to 80% range. Also, Democrats need to remind voters that it was Republicans in some States who rolled back things like COVID related mail-in voting that made voting easier for many folks, and that if they take control of Congress, Republicans will not only not pass any of the popular things in the above two Bills, they will likely try to pass legislation that would make voting more difficult and less fair.
ECONOMY (WORKING CLASS TYPE):
Some Democrats argue that our candidates should shy away from discussing “kitchen-table” economic issues this cycle, viewing them as issues that favor Republicans due to the latest bought of inflation brought on primarily by higher fuel prices. WRONG, WRONG, WRONG! “Kitchen Table” Economics (IMO) can and should be winning issues for Democrats for a number of reasons.
First, running on these economic issues allows Democrats to focus on their accomplishments over the last two years. Things like record job growth with unemployment at record lows, due to the Democrats’ passed COVID Relief Stimulus Act. Further likely future job growth stemming from the Democrats’ passed Infrastructure Bill. Then we have the Medicare cost reductions for drugs such as a $2000 annual out-of-pocket cap, the $35 per month Insulin cap and the allowance for Medicare to negotiate prices, all passed by Democrats in the recent Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which not a single Republican voted for. Also, Democrats need to remind voters that it was the Senate Republicans who killed the Bill which would have put in place a $35 per month Insulin cap on non-Medicare folks with private insurance. Capping this all off is President Biden’s Executive Order to forgive between $10,000 and $20,000 of Federal Student Loan Debt, a big positive for Team “D”.
Second, running on these economic issues allows Democrats their recent accomplishment in fighting Economic Inequality with the passage of the IRA. They need to highlight the 15% minimum tax on Big Corporations who, up until now, made big profits and paid little of no tax as a result of loopholes in the tax code. This and other tax fairness measures in the IRA are widely popular among voters of all stripes and need to be publicized by Democratic candidates.
Lastly, with all the Republican clamoring about high gas prices and inflation in general, Democrats need to aggressively fight back. First off, Democrats need to remind folks of the reality that gas prices are currently going down, a trend that is likely to continue through November. Secondly, they need to tell voters that it was Senate Republicans who blocked Democrat Maggie Hassan’s Bill to temporarily suspend the Federal gas tax which would have immediately lowered gas prices back in August. That’s right a Republican (Chuck Grassley) blocked a Democrat’s Bill to lower taxes! Amazing! Finally, and most importantly, have you noticed that while Republicans keep telling voters that Inflation is the Democrats fault, which is of course a lie, they never seem to say what they would do about it if voters put them in charge. Every Democratic candidate needs to ask their Republican opponent what he or she will do to combat inflation and lower consumer prices. Chances are their response will be crickets or some BS mumbling, to which the Democratic candidate can launch into what Democrats have done and what real things we will do to lower costs.
GUN VIOLENCE:
Let me say at the outset, “gun control”, or as I prefer “gun safety” is not an issue that plays well for Democrats in every House District. So in a few cases, it may be best for the Democratic candidate to remain silent on the issue. That said, their are certain aspects of the gun safety issue that poll in Democrats favor in all but the reddest of Red Districts. These include universal background checks on all gun sales, Red Flag prohibitions with respect to individuals with a history of mental illness or domestic violence, raising the age of gun purchasing from 18 to 21, limits on ammo magazine capacity and of course an assault weapons ban. Running on these issues also helps to motivate our voters who care passionately about gun safety.
With regard to Democrats recent passage of gun safety legislation, it’s fine to mention this accomplishment on the campaign trail along is it’s immediately followed by characterizing it as only a start. Democrats need to remind voters that achieving a real substantial curtailment in the frequency of mass shootings means passing the measures listed above and that can only be accomplished by a Democratic House majority and at least two more Dem. Senators willing to eliminate or curtail Republicans use of the filibuster.
HEALTH CARE COSTS:
As far as health care cost accomplishments, I already mentioned (under the Economy issue above) the Medicare cost reductions for drugs such as a $2000 annual out-of-pocket cap, the $35 per month Insulin cap and the allowance for Medicare to negotiate prices, so I won’t repeat them here. But, another big accomplishment Democrats should be running on is the two year extension of enhanced ACA subsidies which passed as part of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). Without this extension, premiums for ACA policies would have gone up considerably in October right before the mid-terms, which would have been an unpleasant surprise for many and a big negative for Democratic candidates. This accomplishment maybe a little hard for Democrats to portray to ACA voters since they will see no change in premiums and many were probably unaware of the “subsidy cliff” Democrats avoided for them. Still it is important for Democrats to educate these voters on what they were just saved from because of Democrats in Congress and to impress upon them that Republicans will likely end the extension or eliminate the ACA altogether should they be given control of Congress in 2022 and the White House in 2024.
Looking ahead, there is still more Democrats could and should offer voters in terms of providing affordable health care for all. Such things as revising the ACA to provide expanded Medicaid eligibility for all States to correct the error in the law that allowed SCOTUS to strike down the part of the ACA that made expanded Medicaid mandatory, leaving it discretionary for each State to decide. Also, lowering Medicare eligibility to 55, another proposal very popular among voters.
PRIVACY RIGHTS:
Privacy Rights is an umbrella term I am using to cover a list of things that we now consider as National Rights, but thanks to Justice Thomas, could become State discretionary options. I am of course talking about Thomas’s concurring opinion in the Dobb’s abortion case in which he listed a number of other “settled” cases that should be re-examined. These included Griswold (the right to obtain and use contraception), Lawrence (the right of consenting adults of the same sex to engage in sexual intercourse) and Obergefell (the right of same sex marriage). Yes, the Loving case (the right of inter-racial marriage) was somehow not on Thomas’s list.
Thomas’s uncalled for concurring opinion has now put all these previously assumed “rights” based on the above cases, in potential jeopardy. So like in the case of abortion, the only way for Congress to insure the above “rights” are secure is to pass legislation that would codify them into Federal Law. Which is exactly what Democrats in the House tried to do by passing H.R.8404 - Respect for Marriage Act and H.R.8373 - Right to Contraception Act last month. But of course, for the lack of two Senators, both these Bills still lie in the Senate’s “in” basket.
Democrats need to run on these hugely popular privacy rights by first convincing voters that they are indeed in jeopardy Based on the Thomas opinion, and then letting voters know that the only way to secure these rights is to vote for Democrats. While the first task won’t be easy since many won’t believe that SCOTUS would go that far, Democrats need to remind voters that many thought SCOTUS would not go as far as to overturn Roe, and that has happened.
STATE/DISTRICT SPECIFIC ISSUES:
Regardless of what’s going on nationally, there are often regional/local issues that can overshadow whatever is going on nationally. These are issues that can be almost anything, but are having great impact on voters in a particular State or House District, therefore we need to give our Democratic candidates the leeway to highlight these issues during their campaigns. There are many examples of such State/District specific issues, but let me give you just one example.
You probably noticed that “Climate Change” was not on my list of major issues. Some of you my disagree with me about its omission, but let’s just say I wasn’t sure how well it would benefit our side as a national issue. That said, it can certainly be a major issue on a regional or local level. Many areas of the Country are now experiencing the detrimental effects of climate change first hand. Whether it’s flooding in the heartland, severe drought in the southwest, hurricanes on the coasts or wildfires in the west, voters in certain parts of the Country are seeing its effect first hand. While climate change deniers will still exist no matter how many times Mother Nature slaps them in the face, some voters (mainly those all important Independents) in effected reasons are coming around to view the harsh reality of climate change. Some of these Indy voters may still not see a way to prevent climate change, but many are interested in hearing ways to mitigate and remedy its effects on their region/locality. In these climate change effected States/Districts, Democratic candidates may not even want to mention “climate change” since the term can immediately evoke a negative connotation among some swing voters. However, candidates should focus on ways to mitigate and remedy the effects voters are seeing in their States/Districts. For example, candidates in areas effected by wildfires should tell voters that they will be going to Washington to secure funding to both prevent and fight wildfires. In drought effected areas, candidates should be talking about obtaining funding for drought mitigation and enhancing water storage capacity. Although, we all have are not-so-friendly opinions of Kristen Sinema, she did secure additional funding in the IRA for her State to deal with the effects of drought, seeing the political benefits such added funding can provide.
So let’s give our candidates room to run on these State/District specific issues where appropriate, and not criticize them for not saying much about this or that national issue.
Well that’s my list of Dem. winning issues and the reasons behind them. But, in general, Democratic candidates need to run on and inform voters of three (3) basic things:
1. Tell voters what Democrats have accomplished for them in the past two years, without virtually no help from Republicans;
2. Tell voters what they will accomplish for them in the next two years given a majority in the House and an enhanced Senate majority; and
3. Tell voters that despite their constant criticism of Democrats on inflation and other issues, Republicans are offering no real solutions to any of their problems.
That’s it for Part Two! Stay tuned for upcoming Part Three of “For The Lack of Two Senators”.