The predicted rout by Republicans over Democrats in the House this midterm is becoming less of a sure thing by the day. New polling from both CBS and NBC shows that support for Republicans in the generic balloting is falling as potential voters continue to be motivated by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to end federal abortion rights and the ensuring battles in the states. What had been an expected double digit gain in the House for Republicans is now looking like a handful of seats, thanks to the extreme gerrymandering they’ve been pursuing for the last few decades.
The CBS News tracking poll has Republicans on track to win 226 seats, down four from last month. NBC News polling reinforces that, pointing to persuadable voters as the difference. It gives Democrats a 3-point advantage with those voters, 40%-37%, a flip from the first half of the year when Republicans were consistently up generically by 6 points (39%-33%). That goes along with an uptick in President Joe Biden’s approval rating.
While Republicans (and much of the traditional media) keep trying to force the message to be about the economy and inflation, voters seem to be stubbornly caring more about things like the erosion of our civil rights and democracy.
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According to that CBS tracker, women voters in particular believe that if Republicans gain control, “they'll make restricting abortion a priority (65%), even more so than inflation (56%).” On top of that, ”More Democrats (77%) say abortion is ‘very important’ than describe any other issue that way—it’s neck-and-neck with gun policy and ahead of the economy and inflation.” It’s also not just Democrats: “third-party and undecided voters for whom the overturning of Roe is a factor say it makes them want to support Democrats over Republicans by four to one.”
Meanwhile, voters are feeling better about Biden and about the economy. Dropping gas prices have are helping to boost Biden’s approval, now up to 45% with registered voters, the highest it’s been since February.
A departing moderate Republican, Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan, agrees with the polling assessment. “I expect a narrow majority for the GOP that may not be all that much greater than what (Nancy) Pelosi has today,” he told CNN. “Will be very hard to have any sense of a governing majority.”
An anonymous member (coward) told CNN “We are losing ground because of [abortion]. They go on to complain that “Roe caught Republicans off guard and we haven't used it to paint the left as extreme nor shown any sort of compassion on the issue.” As if support for the status quo of the past half century on abortion rights is extreme. “Republicans want to say, ‘inflation,’ as if that solves all our problems. It doesn't,” the member added.
Another departing Republican is a lot blunter.
Potential Speaker Kevin McCarthy would have a very big challenge on his hands should he get the gavel.
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