Key Takeaways
- Russian military leadership continues to experience major turnover, which is likely impacting Russian command and control efforts in Ukraine.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum, east of Siversk, and to the east and south of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces have likely made incremental gains in settlements on the northwestern and southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City and continued efforts to break Ukrainian defensive lines along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line of contact.
- Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance east of Mykolaiv City on August 7.
- Russian forces are forming a new 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade in Orenburg Oblast as part of the 3rd Army Corps.
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Main Effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate Main Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian objective: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Eastern Ukraine and capture the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground assaults northwest of Izyum on August 7. Social media imagery posted on August 7 showed elements of the 5th Tank Brigade and 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade operating in unspecified locations along the Izyum axis, indicating that elements of the Eastern Military District group are still operating on the Izyum axis.[11]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks southwest and southeast of Izyum in the direction of Slovyansk on August 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian force repelled a Russian attack near Virnopillya- about 18km southwest of Izyum.[12] Russian forces also conducted ground assaults near Bohorodychne and Dolyna, both about 20km northwest of Slovyansk along the Izyum-Slovyansk line.[13] Slovyansk Military-Civilian Administration Head Vadym Lyakh stated that Russian forces shelled residential areas in the center of Slovyansk.[14]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack east of Siversk on August 7. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian troops failed to improve their tactical position in Verkhnokamyanske, 5km due east of Siversk.[15] Russian forces otherwise conducted air and artillery strikes on and around Siversk.[16]
Russian forces continued ground attacks to the northeast, east, and south of Bakhmut on August 7. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian troops neutralized a Russian reconnaissance-in-force group in Bilohorivka, about 18km northeast of Bakhmut along the T1302 highway.[17] Russian forces also conducted ground attacks in the vicinity of Yakovlivka, Volodymyryvka, and Pokrovske- settlements within 15km of the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.[18] Russian forces continued efforts to gain ground south of Bakhmut and conducted ground attacks around Zaitseve, Vershyna, Kodema, Vidrodzhennya, and Semihirya.[19]
Russian forces continued ground attacks to the north and west of Donetsk City on August 7 and have likely made incremental advances in settlements near the outskirts of Donetsk City. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces maintained efforts to break Ukrainian defensive lines in the directions of Krasnohorivka (15km north of Donetsk City), Pisky (5km northwest of Donetsk City), Avdiivka (5km north of Donetsk City), and Maryinka (directly on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).[20] Combat footage posted to social media on August 7 shows Russian forces in the central part of Pisky, which indicates that Russian troops are likely moving to consolidate control of the settlement.[21] Additional combat footage from August 6 showed Russian troops advancing into the eastern sector of Maryinka.[22]
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Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts against Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance east of Mykolaiv City on August 7 but did not make any territorial gains. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault in the direction of Vasylky-Blahodatne, approximately 45km east of Mykolaiv City.[27] Russian forces continued to intensify aerial reconnaissance and launch airstrikes at Andriivka, Bilohirka, and Velyke Artakove, all situated in the vicinity of the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River.[28] Russian forces also continued to launch cruise missiles and fire rockets from Smerch and Uragan MLRS systems at Mykolaiv City and settlements in its vicinity.[29] Dnipropetrovsk Oblast officials reported that Russian forces fired 60 rockets from Grad MLRS systems at coastal settlements in the Nikopol area.[30]
Ukrainian and Russian officials exchanged accusations over the responsibility for August 6 evening shelling at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Ukraine’s state energy enterprise Energoatom reported that Russian forces fired rockets at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which hit the spent nuclear fuel rod storage site and damaged the radiation monitoring sensors.[31] Russian-appointed Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration Head Evgeniy Balitsky claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled the plant with Uragan MLRS systems, resulting in the same damage described by Ukrainian officials.[32] The Russian Defense Ministry had previously demanded that the international community condemns Ukraine for endangering neighboring countries with a nuclear catastrophe on August 6, and Balitsky voiced a similar concern for “nuclear disaster” that would irradiate all of Europe.[33] ISW cannot independently identify the side responsible for the shelling, however ISW previously assessed that Russia is likely using the NPP to play on Western fears of a nuclear disaster in Ukraine and Europe in an effort to discourage further military support to Ukraine.[34]
Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures to divert Ukrainian precision strikes on Russian logistics and prepare defensive positions ahead of Ukrainian counteroffensives. Kherson Oblast Administration Head Yaroslav Yanushkevych stated that Russian forces are mining critical infrastructure throughout Kherson Oblast in preparations for Ukrainian counteroffensives.[35] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan also noted that Russian forces are deliberately sending civilian traffic over the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Bridge and allowing civilians to use pontoon bridges to prevent Ukrainian forces from targeting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) over the Dnipro River.[36] Khlan added that Russian forces are continuing to accumulate more military personnel and equipment in northeastern Kherson Oblast rather than northwest of Kherson City due to the availability of a GLOC via the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant Bridge.[37] Khlan noted that Russian forces have also placed their air defense systems in a Kherson City residential neighborhood and began digging trenches in protected cultivated forests in Kherson Oblast.[38] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also noted that Russian forces are transporting three to four convoys of military equipment through Melitopol daily, likely in an effort to reinforce their defensive positions in Kherson and western Zaporizhia Oblasts.[39]
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Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces did not make confirmed ground assaults near Kharkiv City on August 7.[23] Russian forces struck Kharkiv City in the early morning likely with an Iskander ballistic missile.[24] Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration Head Oleg Synegubov additionally reported that Russian forces launched probable S-300 missiles at Kharkiv City’s Industrialny and Novobavarsky districts from Belgorod.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces continued shelling along the entire line of contact around Kharkiv City and conducted airstrikes against Ukrainian frontline positions near Pryshyb (65 km southeast of Kharkiv City), Verkhnii Saltiv (40 km northeast of Kharkiv City) and Rtyshchivk (50 km southeast of Kharkiv City).[26]