Trumpists are still looking for that actual case of 2020 election fraud that changes the election outcome in one state like Arizona and somehow that alone proves Trump is (still) POTUS. As if that could overcome all the other swing states voting for Biden and the massive popular vote count in 2020.
All that emerges are remains in drought-stricken southwestern lakes rather than corrupt GOP primary nominees. The preliminary primary turnout data comparing 2018 and 2022 turnout shows that the GOP is more ‘excited’ about showing up for their candidates. If we don't win in 2022, who the hell knows if there will be a 2024.
The bumper-sticker version of what we found: The 2022 vote should be fine. The most far-reaching attempts by Republicans to overhaul election laws have so far stalled as Americans head into November’s midterm elections to decide governors in 36 states and control of the US Congress. So even though it’s a safe bet that at least a handful of candidates will follow Trump’s lead and claim their opponent cheated if they lose, it won’t be any easier than it was two years ago for them to overturn the results.
But the picture two years from now is shaping up to be much darker.
Trump and his loyalists are
supporting people who deny the results of the 2020 election for governor in five key states this fall, more than enough to tilt a close 2024 presidential race away from the duly elected winner. Tight races this November in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin, and a possible Republican win in Pennsylvania, will determine who is in charge of making election decisions in states where the White House is won or lost. In all five of these states, Trump and his backers tried to overturn the results.
the so-called “red mirage,” which gave a rosier picture for Trump on election night slowly faded as Democratic-leaning mail ballots were tallied
That dynamic – also known as the “blue shift” – was particularly pronounced in 2020, because of the significant uptick in mail-in voting during the Covid-19 pandemic. But this increase didn’t happen evenly across the board – Democrats flocked to postal voting in 2020, while many Republicans preferred in-person voting on Election Day, thanks in large part to Trump’s claims that vote-by-mail was a sham.
This divide created an interesting phenomenon when it came time to count the votes.
Here’s what CNN said about this in September 2020: It takes longer to count mail-in ballots, and in many states, ballots are still admissible if they are postmarked by Election Day but arrive later. In simple terms, this means the partial results that get reported on Election Night will probably look worse for then-candidate Joe Biden than the final, complete count.
“In every election, Republicans win Election Day and Democrats win the early vote. Then you wait and start counting,” Stirewalt, who was involved in Fox News' election projections, testified. “…Usually it’s election day votes that count first. You see the Republican shoot ahead… you expect to see the Republican with a lead, but it’s not really a lead.”
Check out our full explanation of the “red mirage” here.
www.cnn.com/…
A common pattern involves a party with a victorious presidential candidate benefiting from a wave election, followed by the opposing party winning a wave election in the next midterm election.[9]
Since Reconstruction, only three presidents have ever seen their party gain seats in a midterm election: Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 and Bill Clinton in 1998, and Republican George W. Bush in 2002.
Wave elections usually happen during midterm elections, as wave elections in years where the office of the President of the United States is up for election are more frequently referred to as landslide elections.[4] The most recent election year widely described as a wave election was 2018's blue wave, where the Democratic Party regained control of the House of Representatives and made a net gain of 7 seats in gubernatorial elections.[5][6]
en.wikipedia.org/…
Many people still remember stories about the first Mayor Richard A. Daley rigging the presidential election of John F. Kennedy in 1960, for example, but even in those times, electoral fraud was probably common in local elections. In fact, the bigger news in the 1960 election was that State’s Attorney Benjamin Adamowski, a Republican running for reelection, was posed to run against Richard J. Daley in the next mayoral race. Common knowledge attributed his loss most definitely to fraud.
www.salon.com/…
But the story of the stolen 1960 election rests on several myths. When myths are replaced with evidence, it’s not clear that the election was stolen at all.
Myth 1: Illinois put Kennedy over the top
Popular accounts sometimes claim that winning Illinois was what put Kennedy in the White House. For example, in a recent op-ed, Virginia State Sen. Richard Black (R) claims that “Mayor Daley’s corrupt machine delivered huge tallies for Democrats, changing the election outcome.”
But Illinois didn’t change the national outcome. Although the 1960 election was the closest since 1884 according to the popular vote, Kennedy’s margin in the electoral college was more than large enough to survive the loss of Illinois.
Kennedy won 303 electoral votes; his Republican opponent Richard Nixon won 219. (The remaining 15 electors voted for segregationist Democrat Harry Byrd.) If Illinois’s 27 electoral votes shifted from Kennedy to Nixon, Kennedy would still have won, with 276 votes to Nixon’s 246. Only 269 were needed to win in 1960 (vs. 270 today).
A more accurate claim is that Nixon would have won, with 270 electoral votes, if he had flipped both Illinois and Texas. But Texas wasn’t nearly as close as Illinois. While Kennedy won Illinois by just 8,858 votes (0.2 percent), he won Texas, the home state of his running mate Lyndon Johnson, by 46,627 votes (2 percent). Out of the 22 states that Kennedy won, there were seven that he won more narrowly than Texas.
[...]
None of this means there was no fraud in Illinois. The fact that simple demographics can predict the vote within half a percent offers small comfort when the winning margin was 0.2 percent. It wouldn’t take a massive fraud to swing an election that close. Just a little would do.
One way to bring fraud to light is with a recount, and there is a persistent myth that there was no recount in Cook County. In fact, there were two recounts — one in November 1960, before the state vote was certified, and one after Kennedy’s inauguration in 1961.
According to Kallina’s history, both recounts whittled Kennedy’s margin in Cook County, but not by enough to erase his lead statewide.
Dissatisfied Republicans pointed out that some forms of fraud — such as buying or coercing votes — were not the kind that could be corrected by simply recounting the votes. Democrats countered that the downstate counties, which hadn’t been recounted, might have had fraud favoring Nixon, but Democrats did not offer evidence to support their accusation.
We may never know who received the most votes the 1960 election in Illinois. But the available evidence suggests that there wasn’t enough fraud, at least in the counting, to give Illinois to Kennedy. And in any case Kennedy didn’t need Illinois to win the White House.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
