Tuesday brings us the final primary night of the 2022 cycle as voters in Delaware, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island select their nominees for the November general election. (The only state that has yet to go to the polls this year is Louisiana, which will hold its all-party primary on Nov. 8—the day of the midterms.)
Below you'll find our guide to all of the top contests, arranged chronologically by each state’s poll closing times. When it’s available, we'll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don't mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
While the 2022 round of redistricting has led to some dramatic changes in House maps across the country, New Hampshire and Rhode Island’s congressional boundaries still look almost identical to the ones that have been in use for decades. Delaware, for its part, has only had one House seat for its entire time as a state except for the decade spanning 1813 to 1823. (Both members were elected statewide during that brief period, so there has never been a 2nd Congressional District in the First State.)
Daily Kos Elections has calculated the presidential results for all 435 House seats in the nation, which reflect how the 2020 race would have gone under the new lines in place for this fall, and we've listed these figures in parentheses after each race below.
If you'd like to know how much of the population in each new district comes from each old district, please check out our redistribution tables. You can also check out interactive maps from Dave's Redistricting App for New Hampshire and Rhode Island’s new congressional districts.
The first polls close in parts of New Hampshire at 7 PM ET. Our live coverage will begin at 8 PM ET at Daily Kos Elections when polls close in the remainder of the state, as well as in all of Delaware and Rhode Island. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates.
New Hampshire
Each community may close its polls at 7 PM or 8 PM ET; you can find a list of poll closing times by town and precinct here.
● NH-Sen (R) (53-45 Biden): Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan faces a tough general election in a state that's prone to wild swings, but both parties are waiting to see if the Republicans will jeopardize their chances by nominating retired Army Brig. General Donald Bolduc, whom GOP Gov. Chris Sununu has slammed as a "conspiracy-theory extremist" and "not a serious candidate." Bolduc’s main intra-party adversary is state Senate President Chuck Morse, who earned Sununu’s endorsement in the final days of the race.
Bolduc lost the 2020 primary for New Hampshire's other Senate seat 50-42, and while he’s again raised little money, he appears to have retained name recognition from that failed bid. Bolduc has spent his second effort embracing the Big Lie and accusing Sununu of being a "Chinese communist sympathizer" with a family business that "supports terrorism." Two independent polls conducted in August showed Bolduc well ahead of Morse as the other nine candidates all lagged far behind.
However, those polls were taken just before deep-pocketed Republicans launched a multi-million-dollar effort to promote Morse and attack Bolduc as a surefire loser with "crazy ideas." The Democratic group Senate Majority PAC, in turn, has waged its own expensive ad campaign tying Morse to lobbyists, a move aimed at weakening him for the general election if he can’t be stopped in the primary. No major outside organization has gotten involved to aid Bolduc directly.
The only poll that has been released in the last two weeks was a Democratic survey that found Bolduc leading Morse 33-23, but with a hefty 25% still undecided.
● NH-01 (R) (52-46 Biden): Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has 10 GOP opponents in an eastern New Hampshire constituency that has long been one of the swingiest seats in America, and national Republicans are spending big to support a familiar contender.
That person is 2020 nominee Matt Mowers, a former Trump White House aide who is seeking a rematch following his 51-46 loss two years ago. Allies of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy have spent close to $3 million to boost Mowers and bash his main rival, Karoline Leavitt, an election denier who's another Trump administration alum. One spot calls Leavitt, who is 25, a "woke Gen-Zer," a statement followed with a SnapChat clip of the candidate laughingly exclaiming, "Listen up, ho bags."
The field also includes former TV reporter Gail Huff Brown, whose husband, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, lost a close 2014 race to Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen shortly after moving north to the Granite State. Huff Brown, who is running for the first time, has not attracted any support or opposition from any major outside groups, though she attracted attention late in the campaign for an ad in which she called for protecting abortion rights. State Rep. Tim Baxter and former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott are also in, but they haven’t gotten much notice.
Most polls have shown Mowers well ahead of Leavitt, with the rest of the field mired in single digits. A late August survey, though, put his edge over Leavitt at just 26-24, with Huff Brown at 16%; these numbers, however, came out before Mowers’ allies dramatically escalated their spending.
● NH-02 (R) (54-45 Biden): While Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster hasn't been seriously targeted since she decisively won re-election during the 2014 red wave, Republicans are hoping for an opening in this district that takes in the state's western and northern reaches. Democrats, though, are trying to influence Republican voters to nominate former Hillsborough County Treasurer Robert Burns, who took fourth in the 2018 primary, over Keene Mayor George Hansel.
To that end, a Democratic group has spent over $500,000 on ads promoting Burns as an ardent Trump ally, though Hansel, who is a self-described "pro-choice" candidate backed by Gov. Chris Sununu, has also benefited from spending aimed at helping him advance. An independent poll taken in late August—before many ads were aired—put Burns’ advantage at 32-18 as another 10% went to Lily Tang Williams, who was the 2016 Libertarian Party nominee for Senate … in Colorado.
Delaware
Polls close at 8 PM ET, though there aren’t any major statewide primaries to watch. Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who represents the entire state, has no intra-party opposition, and she should have no trouble in November.
Rhode Island
Polls close at 8 PM ET.
● RI-Gov (D) (59-39 Biden): Dan McKee was elevated from the office of lieutenant governor to the top job in March of last year when Gina Raimondo resigned to become Joe Biden's commerce secretary, and four fellow Democrats are challenging him for a full term. McKee, who has long been an ardent supporter of charter schools, turned back a primary challenge from the left by just a 51-49 margin when he was last on the ballot in 2018, but the new governor has nonetheless earned endorsements from several labor groups that previously tried to beat him.
The only other statewide office-holder in the primary is Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, who would be the state’s first Latina governor. Another well-funded contender is former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, who has used her connections and personal wealth to far outspend the rest of the field. Also in the running is former Secretary of State Matt Brown, who lost the 2018 primary to Raimondo 57-34 but has struggled to gain traction for his second try, and physician Luis Daniel Muñoz, who earned less than 2% running an independent bid for governor four years ago. An independent poll from mid-August gave McKee a narrow 28-25 advantage over Gorbea, with Foulkes at 14%.
However, that survey was conducted before any of the three most prominent candidates began airing attack ads in the final weeks. Gorbea acted first with a commercial reminding viewers that the FBI is probing McKee's administration over a since-canceled education consulting contract. However, that ad had to be edited because it initially cited an unrelated editorial in the right-wing National Review, and the governor quickly responded by accusing Gorbea of “using extreme MAGA Republicans to make false attacks.”
Foulkes tried to portray herself as above the fray, but she also went negative in the final days with a spot that both brought up the FBI probe and faulted Gorbea for problems with Spanish-language ballots for this year's primaries that impacted 55 votes, an issue the secretary of state blamed on the vendor. McKee's campaign and a pro-Gorbea group also spent the final days of the race running ads portraying Foulkes as a heartless businesswoman, though the two frontrunners have continued to attack each other as well.
The Democratic nominee will go up against self-funding businessman Ashley Kalus, who faces no serious opposition of her own in the GOP primary.
● RI-02 (D) (56-42 Biden): Six Democrats are competing to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin in a western Rhode Island constituency that’s also home to western Providence. The winner will face a well-funded foe in former Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, who was the 2014 and 2018 Republican nominee for governor and has no intra-party opposition.
The Democratic frontrunner from the start has been State Treasurer Seth Magaziner, who sports endorsements from Langevin and several unions. Another well-funded rival is Sarah Morgenthau, a former U.S. Department of Commerce official who, like Magaziner, hails from a prominent political family. Also in the running is communications firm head Joy Fox, a former Langevin staffer; former state Rep. David Segal, who took third place in the 2010 primary for the neighboring 1st District; and two underfunded contenders.