This morning I was watching this interview with Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, recorded on Tuesday, regarding the course of the war in Ukraine. The General seems to feel that the recent Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv oblast’ represents the turning point in the war, that Russia cannot recover the initiative, and that the next year will see Ukraine liberate all its territory, including Crimea. He even went so far as to suggest that the Russian Federation itself may break up, and that the west must prepare for that possibility, as it was not prepared for the breakup of the Soviet Union.
But General Hodges said something else: that the rate of China’s military buildup suggests “a kinetic conflict” in the next five years. Pressed by a questioner, the General said China is building ships faster than the United States did during World War II, and that he believes China is preparing to invade Taiwan, not this year, but perhaps five years from now. He stated that China sees Russia as its junior partner and primarily a source of raw materials, adding that Russia’s control of the Northeast Passage, the Arctic shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, is important to China.
Fasten your seat belts, folks.