Hurricane Fiona, after ravaging Puertio Rico over the weekend, is not done yet. It is strengthening and making its way to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. A few other storms have popped up in the Atlantic; the one to watch for is invest 98L (the red cross below Fiono), which is predicted to enter the warm waters of the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.
Jeff Masters and Bon Henson have an excellent summary of the current situation at yaleclimateconnections.org/... -
- Category 4 hurricane Fiona will pass Bermuda to its west overnight and threaten Nova Scotia over the weekend.
- Invest 98L is entering the Caribbean and will likely strengthen as it heads for the Gulf coast region.
- Tropical storm Gaston is not a threat to major population centers
- The 2 tropical waves moving off Africa are unlikely to be threats, but bear watching.
- There are a few new storms brewing in the Pacific as well.
Puerto Rico is still reeling from the damage caused by Hurricane Fiona. Rain amounts are staggering -
The power situation is still dire —
Add to that, the misery of excessive heat -
The saving grace is that this time we have a competent and caring government -
Hurricane Fiona is packing 130 mph winds and moving slowly towards Bermuda. Bermuda will not face a direct hit but will likely experience tropical storm winds and storm surge.
Fiona will speed up and hit the Canadian Atlantic states as a very strong extra-tropical storm over the weekend. Meteorologists are seriously concerned about how Fiona will interact with an upper-level trough and pack 100+ mph winds when it hits Nova Scotia.
Rain forecasts for Fiona -
- Bermuda: 2 to 4 inches.
- Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.
- Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.
- Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.
There is still a good amount of uncertainty on the path and strength of tropical disturbance Invest 98L, currently off the coast of Venezuela, but most models predict that it will enter the Gulf as a strong hurricane; Mexican and US Gulf coast states need to be on alert.
Invest 98L has the potential to be a very damaging storm and there are quite a few possibilities for where it will make landfall in the Gulf coast region. Significant development isn't expected until this weekend.
Ocean heat content is high in the Caribbean region, which will fuel the development of Invest 98L -
Odds for development will rise on Saturday, when Fiona’s upper-level outflow will no longer be affecting 98L. The system will then will be in the central Caribbean, where ideal conditions for development are expected: very warm water (at least 30 degrees C or 86 degrees Fahrenheit) with a high heat content, light to moderate wind shear, excellent outflow channels aloft, and a moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 70 percent).
The entire northern half of the Caribbean has been free of tropical cyclones all season, so these untouched waters (running about 0.5 degrees Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit above average for late September) will be particularly ripe for supporting any well-organized cyclone with favorable atmospheric conditions.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
It’s good to see more coverage on this issue.
Prof. Mann -
Climate change is super-charging these storms, making them stronger, and packing greater flooding potential," Mann wrote to Salon. "The intensification of Fiona to a strong Category 4 storm is part of larger trend toward more intense hurricanes, and warmer oceans mean more moisture in these storms, and more flooding when they make landfall (like we saw with Fiona in Puerto Rico)."
From www.reuters.com/… -
IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING HURRICANES?
Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place.
We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but things can change rapidly. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.
Please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.
And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.
Additional links and resources
- NHC — www.nhc.noaa.gov
- Puerto Rico Power outage map — poweroutage.us/...
- Real-time aircraft reconnaissance data and lots of other technical info — www.tropicaltidbits.com/…
- How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous — yaleclimateconnections.org/…
- Hurricane Dorian Forecasts, Updates and Science - Part 2 — www.dailykos.com/...
- How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/…