Hurricane Fiona, after ravaging Puertio Rico over the weekend, is not done yet. After passing to the west of Bermuda overnight, it is headed for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, where it might become one of the strongest storms in history to hit that region.
Meanwhile, tropical disturbance Invest 98L off the coast of Venezuela has been renamed as Tropical Disturbance Nine (TD9). It is still relatively weak and disorganized but it is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane as it traverses the warm waters of the Caribbean sea and passes to the west of Jamaica, the Cayman islands, western Cuba and hits Florida from the southwest. It will probably get the name Ian in the next 24-48 hours (TD10 off the coast of Africa has been given the name Hermine).
Satellite images of Fiona and TD9 -
Hurricane Fiona (now called post-tropical cyclone Fiona) is packing 125 mph winds as it passed west of Bermuda overnight. Fiona’s movement will speed up and hit the Canadian Atlantic states as a very strong extra-tropical storm overnight. Meteorologists are seriously concerned about how Fiona will interact with an upper-level trough and pack 100+ mph winds when it hits Nova Scotia tonight.
The outer bands of Fiona are reaching Nota Scotia this evening.
The predicted merging of Fiona with an upper-level trough that will create a more dangerous storm —
Surface level pressure could reach a historic low of 927 mb for this region. It is already at 935 mb this evening.
Rain forecast -
- Bermuda: An additional 1 to 3 inches.
- Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and western Newfoundland: 3 to 6 inches, with local maximum up to 10 inches.
- Eastern Quebec: 2 to 5 inches.
- Eastern New Brunswick: 1 to 3 inches.
Hurricane and TS warnings are up -
Coastal flooding and damage will be high with the predicted wave heights -
Grocery shelves are emptying, as Halifax prepares for Fiona —
Lines for propane in Halifax are long -
Tropical Disturbance Nine (TD9)
There is still a good amount of uncertainty on the path and strength of tropical disturbance 9, currently off the coast of Venezuela, but most models predict that it will enter the Gulf as a strong hurricane; western Jamaica, Cayman Island, western Cuba and Florida lie along its projected track.
The time to prepare is now.
This is the predicted path, timeline and strength of TD9, according to the NHC. Wind speeds will most likely increase beyond the values shown below.
There is still the possibility of a more western track -
TD9 has the potential to be a very damaging storm and there are quite a few possibilities for where it will make landfall in the Gulf coast region. Significant development isn't expected until this weekend.
Ocean heat content is high in the Caribbean region, which will fuel the development of TD9 —
Odds for development will rise on Saturday, when Fiona’s upper-level outflow will no longer be affecting 98L. The system will then will be in the central Caribbean, where ideal conditions for development are expected: very warm water (at least 30 degrees C or 86 degrees Fahrenheit) with a high heat content, light to moderate wind shear, excellent outflow channels aloft, and a moist atmosphere (mid-level relative humidity around 70 percent).
The entire northern half of the Caribbean has been free of tropical cyclones all season, so these untouched waters (running about 0.5 degrees Celsius or 1 degree Fahrenheit above average for late September) will be particularly ripe for supporting any well-organized cyclone with favorable atmospheric conditions.
Rain forecast for TD9 — www.nhc.noaa.gov/… -
- Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, Northern Venezuela and Northern Colombia: Additional 1 to 2 inches
- Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, with local maximum up to 6 inches
- Jamaica and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with local maximum up to 12 inches
- Western to central Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local maximum up to 14 inches.
Storms around the world
We are all familiar with many of the tools and technologies used to monitor hurricanes and predict their development - weather satellites, weather models and computer simulations, buoys and sensors and hurricane aircraft. There is one new technology that has been deployed since last year — drone sail ships that can provide surface measurements of wind, waves, salinity, temperature and pressure inside a hurricane.
NOAA in collaboration with SailDrone is deploying 7 ocean drones this year - research.noaa.gov/...
Here is a fascinating video captured by Saildrone from inside Hurricane Fiona -
Here is an example of real-time data from the Saildrone in Fiona -
An overview from NOAA of ocean observing instruments used for monitoring hurricanes, including saildrones and underwater gliders.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
It’s good to see more coverage on this issue.
Prof. Mann -
Climate change is super-charging these storms, making them stronger, and packing greater flooding potential," Mann wrote to Salon. "The intensification of Fiona to a strong Category 4 storm is part of larger trend toward more intense hurricanes, and warmer oceans mean more moisture in these storms, and more flooding when they make landfall (like we saw with Fiona in Puerto Rico)."
From www.reuters.com/… -
IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING HURRICANES?
Yes, climate change is making hurricanes wetter, windier and altogether more intense. There is also evidence that it is causing storms to travel more slowly, meaning they can dump more water in one place.
But the relentless disinformation campaign on climate change from the right never stops.
We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but things can change rapidly. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.
Please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.
And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.
Additional links and resources
- NHC — www.nhc.noaa.gov
- Puerto Rico Power outage map — poweroutage.us/...
Real-time aircraft reconnaissance data and lots of other technical info — www.tropicaltidbits.com/…
- The Atlantic Hurricane season - Sept 22 : Fiona is still a threat while Invest 98L is revving up — www.dailykos.com/…
- Global Warming and Hurricanes — www.gfdl.noaa.gov/...
- How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous — yaleclimateconnections.org/…
- Hurricane Dorian Forecasts, Updates and Science - Part 2 — www.dailykos.com/...
How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/…