This will be an unpopular opinion, but before calling me a Russian troll please read through some of my other stories to understand how pro-Ukrainian I am. I’m a firm believer in understanding dynamics, even when they don’t conform to what we want to believe. And Ukraine will still kick the crap out of Russia, but the mobilization will help Russia on the battlefield (the Homefront may be a different story).
To properly understand the Russian mobilization you need to understand how the basic Russian BTG is meant to operate. I previously summarized the BTG in this article which was based on Cpt Nicolas Fiore’s work here. Cpt. Fiore’s work is well worth a read and I encourage people to do so.
But the quick summary is that the Russian BTG as pictured above is meant to be a trained core of firepower to which a conscript unit is attached to be the BTG’s meat shield. Quite literally a meat shield. The attached conscripts on offense are meant to walk forward in order to get the enemy to open fire. Once the enemy units expose themselves by firing, the BTG’s artillery will target those positions. To see if the artillery hit anything, the next wave of conscripts will be sent out to see if any enemies are still alive. The conscripts are not expected to survive. On defense, the conscripts are placed on the outer edges of the BTG to act as human trip wires. As the enemy advances, they stumble upon a conscript foxhole and eliminate the Russian conscripts. In the process they alert the Russian artillery to their presence which is then called in to target the enemy. The mobile infantry and tanks pictured in the BTG above are around to support the attack or defense as needed, but they are never meant to be first contact.
So even as some make fun of the quality of the Russian mobilization, the sad fact is that the mobilization is nothing more than replenishing a disposable commodity. The conscripts don’t need training because all they are meant to do is die. Their moral doesn’t matter because they will be controlled like slaves by the core BTG soldiers. I imagine the core BTG soldiers might not even see the conscripts as human. The conscripts will also be hopped up on drugs to make them lose fear and be more controllable. Should the conscripts flee, it will not be contagious to the core BTG units because the conscripts are expected to flee. The BTG Russians have seen it before and know how to handle it.
The Russian mobilization is like putting a new set of tires on a truck. The tires are meant to be used until worn out and replaced. The conscripts are meant to be herded into position and replaced after they die. So the overall effect on combat will be having the remains of the Russian BTGs operating normally as they have been. A new batch of conscripts will improve the current BTGs ability to take a hit, but their firepower will not be improved. The main hitting strength of the BTG will remain their artillery. The conscripts just make it harder for the Ukrainians to get to the artillery quickly.
Some small percentage of conscripts who have skills useful to the Russian military will be brought into the core BTGs to replace losses. The smart Russian conscript will do everything in their power to make themselves useful in a behind the line setting. What Russia will have a harder time compensating for are the more skilled positions such as the operators of the counter-battery RADAR.
Ukraine will still continue to make progress though. Any time they can force the Russians into a more fluid battle state, the Ukrainians will have an advantage. The BTG is a set piece unit that doesn’t respond well to quick changes. Also, the Ukrainians will continue to get more air superiority using HARMs and gradually even wear down the Russian counter-battery artillery with their own. As the Ukrainians continue to do those things and continue to get NATO gear, the battle will continue to favor Ukraine. But don’t think that the conscripts will have a negative impact. It’s simply Russia replacing their human meat shield. Now, on the Homefront, the loss of these people will negatively affect Russia’s economy and political will to continue the fight. But their military needs the bodies as the original conscripts and Donbas partisans are all gone.