Even in rural America, supporting abortion rights can definitively help Democratic candidates this cycle. That's the takeaway from a new poll released by Rural Organizing/YouGov Blue.
In fact, a candidate's pro-choice position was the most important issue tested among rural voters polled in 10 battleground states, even outpacing party ID (i.e., being a Republican), which came in second. The survey asked respondents to choose between pairs of randomly generated candidates with different attributes including their party identification, race, sex, attitudes on abortion, attitudes on energy investments, attitudes on tax policy, whether they have been endorsed by the Farm Bureau, and their position on the Farm Bill.
Interestingly, when voters were asked what they believed other voters prioritized, being a Republican (party ID) surpassed other attributes by a long shot, with supporting renewable energy coming in second and being pro-choice falling to fifth. So despite what most voters actually prize, they are convinced their peers have very different priorities.
Another key finding of the survey was the fact that for a Democratic candidate, an endorsement from a pro-choice organization boosted a candidate's appeal more than an endorsement from the Farm Bureau or a labor organization.
A Democrat hypothetically endorsed by the AFL-CIO lost 1 point of support (36% to 35%) while a Farm Bureau endorsement boosted a Democrat's support by 7 points (34% to 41%). But an endorsement from Planned Parenthood gave a Democratic candidate a 9-point bump, from 35% to 44%.
In the Florida and Georgia subsample, the boost a Democratic candidate got from an abortion rights group endorsement was even more pronounced. While a Farm Bureau endorsement resulted in a 5-point bump (28% to 33%), a Planned Parenthood endorsement yielded an 18-point boost (24% to 42%).
A Planned Parenthood endorsement also had a dramatic impact on younger voters under 45, increasing support for Democratic candidates by 17 points to 53%. In the last couple cycles, younger voters have become a key voting group whose unusually high turnout helped Democrats secure historic wins in 2018 and 2020.
A Planned Parenthood nod also did the most to animate voters who reported not being excited to vote, with support for a Democratic candidate more than doubling with these less-engaged voters. After the Planned Parenthood endorsement, support for the Democrat rose 23 points, from 20% to 43%.
Matt Hildreth, executive director of Rural Organizing, told Daily Kos he was not surprised by the survey’s findings.
"While the results of this poll might seem surprising to some, they reflect polling trends that we have been watching since 2020 and the results we saw in Kansas during their ballot initiative this year," Hildreth said, referring to the Kansas constitutional amendment stripping abortion rights that was defeated last month by 18 points.
The poll surveyed 1,001 voters living in rural zip codes in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Rural Organizing also commissioned polling in 2020 of seven battleground states that similarly showed rural voters' opposition to outlawing abortion.
"Campaigns must rethink their stereotypes about rural voters," Hildreth said. "Abortion rights are on the ballot this year and if Democratic candidates want to win rural voters who remain undecided they must strongly express their support for the rights of pregnant people."
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