OR-Gov: DHM Research is out with the first poll we’ve seen of this expensive three-way race in some time, and it shows Republican Christine Drazan edging out Democrat Tina Kotek 32-31 as independent Betsy Johnson grabs 18%.
This survey, which was conducted on behalf of The Oregonian and OregonLive, was conducted over a month after the GOP firm Clout Research showed Drazan leading Kotek by that same tiny 33-32 spread, with Johnson similarly situated at 21%. A win for Drazan would give Oregon Republicans their first governor here since the late Victor Atiyeh left office in 1987.
DHM also indicates that Johnson, who spent two decades in the legislature as a conservative Democrat before dropping her party affiliation last year, is taking more votes from Kotek than from Drazan: The poll shows that Johnson is winning over 19% of Democrats, compared to only 13% of Republican respondents. DHM also finds that just 60% of Democrats currently are backing Kotek while Drazan is scooping up 71% of her base, though pollster John Horvick notes this could give Team Blue some room for growth in this blue state.
Another impediment for Kotek is the ugly 31-63 score that respondents give termed-out Democratic Gov. Kate Brown. Willamette Week took a look at the incumbent's travails last December, writing, “Politicos often referred to Ronald Reagan as the ‘Teflon president’ because nothing bad stuck to him. For Brown it’s the opposite: She’s a blank canvas on which Oregonians sling all their frustrations.” Barbara Roberts, who is the only other woman to hold this post, also argued, “I have never seen a governor who accomplished so much, right from the beginning of her tenure, and who seems to receive so little credit for it.”
The story went on to speculate that Brown was being hurt by anger at the Oregon Employment Department’s performance during the early days of the pandemic; a backlash at Brown’s public health orders; the GOP’s successful obstruction tactics in the legislature; as well as sexism. However, WW added that “many people interviewed for this story say Brown’s poll numbers reflect widespread alarm” at crime and homelessness in Portland.
Drazan and Johnson both have run commercials arguing that Kotek, who stepped down as speaker of the state House early this year, has also done a poor job on public safety and homelessness. The Democrat responded a few weeks ago with her own spot where a health care and housing leader praised her as the candidate "with a plan to help get people off the streets so everyone is safe."
Kotek’s two opponents, though, have also spent plenty of time trashing one another as well as the former speaker. Drazan has aired ads arguing that both Kotek and Johnson supported Brown’s agenda, while only the Republican can bring about change. Johnson, meanwhile, recently went up with her own spot that, after once again faulting Kotek’s approach to homelessness, declared, “Christine Drazan would be Oregon’s first anti-choice governor.”
Kotek, for her part, debuted a new commercial this week that also went after both her foes. “If you want a right-wing Oregon, you’ve got two options for governor,” the narrator intones as footage plays of the Jan. 6 riot. “There’s Republican Christine Drazan, who wants to ban abortion, taking fundamental rights away from Oregon women,” she continues, “Or machine gun owning Betsy Johnson. She thinks convicted domestic abusers and other stalkers should be able to buy guns, and even after mass shootings defends military assault weapons.”