The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), inadvertently confirmed that Ukrainian forces are making gains in western Kherson Oblast in the Sukhyi Stavok pocket. Ukraine reportedly killed 650 Russian soldiers in latest combat losses update.
Ukrainian forces in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely exploiting Russian force reallocation to the Southern Axis to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. Ukrainian forces likely used tactical surprise to advance at least 20km into Russian-held territory in eastern Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, recapturing approximately 400 square kilometers of ground. Russian sources claimed that Russian troops began deploying reinforcements to the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understrength due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to capture the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and support the southern axis.[1] Ukraine’s ongoing operations in Kherson Oblast have forced Russian forces to shift their focus to the south, enabling Ukrainian forces to launch localized but highly effective counterattacks in the Izyum area.[2]
Russian milbloggers voiced concern that this Ukrainian counterattack seeks to cut ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would allow Ukrainian troops to isolate the Russian groupings in these areas and retake large swaths of territory.[3] These milbloggers used largely panicked and despondent tones, acknowledged significant Ukrainian gains, and claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south may be a distraction from the ongoing actions in Kharkiv Oblast, which they name as the main Ukrainian effort.[4] The level of shock and frank discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian milbloggers speaks to the scale of surprise achieved by Ukrainian forces, which is likely successfully demoralizing Russian forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and effort to attrit Russian forces in southern Ukraine is a feint for renewed operations in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrainian forces likely took prudent advantage of a reallocation of Russian troops, equipment, and overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives toward critical points in Kharkiv Oblast.
- Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Ukrainians have struck over 400 Russian targets with HIMARS rocket systems. In a brief battlefield update in Ramstein on Thursday, he said Russia’s “operational aims, in addition to their strategic aims, have been defeated by a very successful defense conducted by Ukraine.” The Ukrainian-launched offensive is “ongoing” and in its “early stages,” Milley said, adding that Ukraine is “effectively using their fires to shape the ground maneuver.”
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Six months into “a very tough slog of a war,” Ukraine has begun to mount a counteroffensive and Russia’s invasion can only be seen as a failure, the director of the C.I.A., William J. Burns, said Thursday.
Citing the counterattacks in the south and around Kharkiv in the northeast, Mr. Burns said that Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, had badly underestimated Ukraine’s courage and capacity for combat.
While the final chapter of the war is yet to be written, Mr. Burns said it was “hard to see Putin’s record in the war as anything but a failure.”
Mr. Burns said that Mr. Putin was surrounded by advisers who are unwilling to challenge him and that the Russian leader mistakenly believed that European resolve will waver and American attention will wander the longer the conflict drags on.
“Putin’s bet right now is that he is going to be tougher than the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans,” Mr. Burns said, speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington. “I believe, and my colleagues at C.I.A. believe, that Putin is as wrong about that bet as he was profoundly wrong in his assumptions going back to last February about Ukrainian will to resist.”
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- Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov said Ukraine’s forces have retaken over 270 square miles of territory in the south and east, Reuters reported. Speaking at a news briefing on Thursday, Gromov added that Ukraine’s forces pushed up to 30 miles behind enemy lines — claims that could not be independently verified.
- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced $675 million in new weapons transfers to Kyiv at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, during a trip for the latest meeting of allied defense ministers supporting Ukraine. The package includes more rounds for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, a U.S. official told The Washington Post earlier, speaking on the condition of anonymity. NATO’s message is that “we need to step up & sustain support for as long as it takes,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg tweeted after the meeting.
- Four nations bordering Russia are set to further restrict Russian tourists this month. In a coordinated move, leaders of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia said they have agreed on a “common regional approach” to restrict the entry of Russian citizens traveling for tourism, culture, sport and business. Some Russians who have tried to enter are “coming with the aim of undermining the security of our countries, insofar as three-fourths of Russian citizens support Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine,” the countries said in a joint statement.
- Russian ally Belarus launched military drills in a region near the Polish border, in Minsk and in the northeast, the Belarusian Defense Ministry said Thursday. State media said the exercises, running until Sept. 14, will train troops “to liberate an area temporarily seized by an enemy” and regain control over the border.
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Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces are skillfully exploiting Russia’s deployment of forces away from the Izyum-Kharkiv area to retake territory and threaten Russian GLOCs in the area, prompting demoralized responses from Russian milbloggers.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian logistics nodes, manpower and equipment concentrations, transportation networks, and command and control points in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian and Ukrainian sources reported kinetic activity in northern Kherson Oblast and in western Kherson Oblast along the Kherson-Mykolaiv border.
- Russian forces conducted ground attacks north of Kharkiv City, northwest of Slovyansk, northeast of Siversk, south and northeast of Bakhmut, and northwest of Donetsk City.
- Ukrainian forces gained 400 square kilometers of territory northwest of Izyum on September 6-7 as part of an opportunistic and highly effective counteroffensive in southeastern Kharkiv Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities announced November 4 as the potential date for annexation referenda in occupied areas of Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
In the northeastern Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces retook portions of Russian-held territory there as a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south drained some of Moscow’s resources in the area, according to a report released Wednesday.
Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv region are “likely exploiting Russian force reallocation” to areas near the occupied city of Kherson in the south “to conduct an opportunistic yet highly effective counteroffensive” in the province, the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War said.
Ukrainian forces likely used “tactical surprise” to advance at least 12 miles (20 kilometers) into Russian-held territory in the Kharkiv region on Wednesday, recapturing approximately 155 square miles (400 square kilometers), the report said.
Brig. Gen. Oleksiy Gromov, the head of the main operational department of the Ukrainian military’s General Staff, said at a briefing Thursday that Ukrainian troops had reclaimed control of over 20 settlements in the Kharkiv region and forged up to 30 miles (50 kilometers) deep into Russian-occupied areas this week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said Balakliya, a city of 25,000 and an important railroad junction, was one of the communities Ukrainian forces have recaptured.
“Everything is in its place. The flag of Ukraine in a free Ukrainian city under a free Ukrainian sky!,” he said on the Telegram messaging app.
The gains came as Ukraine continued to mount a counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to deny the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) September 6 report on the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Putin claimed that there is no Russian military equipment on the grounds of the ZNPP other than Rosgvardia elements.[5] Rosgvardia elements have carried out both occupation functions and frontline combat operations during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin’s admission that there are Rosgvardia elements on the plant’s grounds further confirms that Russian forces have militarized their presence at the ZNPP despite constant Russian denials. Putin also accused the IAEA of acting under Western pressure to not directly blame Ukraine of shelling the plant. As ISW previously assessed, the IAEA report was a coded yet damning condemnation of Russian activities at the ZNPP.[6]
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Supporting Effort #2- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and continued routine air and artillery strikes along the line of contact in Zaporizhia Oblast.[46] Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to claim that the other side shelled Enerhodar and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) throughout the day on September 7.[47] Enerhodar Mayor Dmytro Orlov reported that Russian shelling damaged the “Luch” substation, causing power outages throughout the city.[48] Russian forces continued routine missile and artillery attacks along the frontlines in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts on September 7.[49]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort- Southern Kharkiv and Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northwest of Slovyansk on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack in the area of Dolyna, about 18km northwest of Slovyansk along the E40 Izyum-Slovyansk highway.[23] Russian forces also conducted routine artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk line and on areas north and northeast of Slovyansk.[24]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northeast of Siversk on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian troops attacked near Hryhorivka, about 10km northeast of Siversk.[25] Russian forces continued routine artillery strikes on settlements around Siversk.[26]
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff indicated that Russian troops attempted to advance north toward Bakhmut from the outskirts of Horlivka around Zaitseve, Mayorsk, and Mykolaivka Druha—all within 20km south of Bakhmut.[27] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported Russian attacks near Vesela Dolyna (5km southeast of Bakhmut) and the Soledar-Bakhmutske area (10km northeast of Bakhmut).[28] The Russian MoD confirmed reports from September 6 that Russian troops took full control of Kodema, 13km southeast of Bakhmut, and are continuing to push northwards toward Zaitseve and the southern outskirts of Bakhmut itself.[29] Russian forces continued routine artillery attacks on Bakhmut and surrounding settlements.[30]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack along the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attacked around Opytne, about 5km northwest of Donetsk City.[31] Russian sources continued to discuss claimed Russian advances from Pisky towards Pervomaiske, about 10km northwest of Donetsk City.[32] Geolocated combat footage indicates that Russian forces are continuing marginal, block-by-block advances within Marinka, on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City.[33] Russian troops continued routine artillery strikes along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.[34]
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Supporting Effort #1- Kharkiv City and Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Ukrainian forces advanced at least 20km deep into Russian-controlled territory north of Izyum toward Kupyansk and recaptured about 400 square kilometers on September 6-7. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced southeast along the E40 and N26 highways towards Izyum and Kupyansk, respectively.[36] Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces also advanced northeast along the T2110 highway from Balakliya, Verbivka, Yakovenkove, Volokhiv Yar (at the intersection of the T2210 and E40), and towards Shevchenkove (at the intersection of the T2210 and N26).[37] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to advance on Savintsi (just north of Zalyman on the R78), which would cut Balakliya from rear GLOCs.[38] Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces likely aimed to take control of the network of GLOCs—including the T2210, E40, and N26 highways—to set conditions for further advances south on Izyum and east on Kupyansk.[39] Local sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Izyum and Kupyansk (Russian sources claimed using HIMARS), likely to prevent Russian forces from supplying and reinforcing the front lines from these cities.[40] Russian forces targeted Ukrainian rear areas in Yavirske, Pryshyb, Andriivka, Lyman, and Zmiiv, all northwest of Balakliya on the R78.[41]
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks north of Kharkiv City on September 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Pytomnyk and Ruski Tyshky, both within 15km of Kharkiv City.[42] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made significant unspecified advances towards Bayrak, Peremoha, and Shestakove—all on the road connecting Rubizhne to the T2104 ground line of communication (GLOC) west of the Siverskyi Donets River - but provided no evidence to support these claims.[43] Russian forces continued routine artillery and rocket strikes on Kharkiv City and the surrounding settlements.[44] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups conducted unspecified operations in Bilyi Kolodyaz, Vovchansk, and Hnylytsya, all deep in the Russian rear east of the Siverskyi Donets River.[45]
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KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of Ukraine’s atomic energy operator accused Russia on Thursday of trying to “steal” Europe’s largest nuclear plant by cutting it off from the Ukrainian electricity grid and leaving it on the brink of a radiation disaster.
The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been without an outside source of electricity since Monday and receives power for its own safety systems from the only one of its six reactors that remains operational, Enerhoatom chief Petro Kotin told The Associated Press.
“We are trying to keep this unit running as much as possible, but eventually it will have to be shut down and then the station will switch to diesel generators,” he said, adding that such generators are “the station’s last defense before a radiation accident.”
Ukraine and Russia have traded blame for shelling that has damaged parts of the plant as well as the transmission lines that connect it to Ukraine’s electricity network and provide power for the crucial cooling systems that are needed to prevent a meltdown.
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