UPDATE: Thursday, Jan 19, 2023 · 8:08:29 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
This seems important. Like the formation of a new core military alliance important — The Tallinn Pledge.
We the Defence Ministers of Estonia, the United Kingdom, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania; and the representatives of Denmark, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Slovakia met today, 19 January, to reaffirm our continued determination and resolve to supporting Ukraine in their heroic resistance against the illegal and unprovoked Russian aggression….
Therefore, we commit to collectively pursuing delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defence, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defence.
UPDATE: Thursday, Jan 19, 2023 · 6:34:03 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Increasing indications that even if Germany doesn’t send Leopards of its own, the “Leopard alliance” of Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, and United Kingdom have put sufficient pressure on Scholz that permission to transfer some of the over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks slumbering across Europe will be given. There may be limits on numbers, or other conditions, but it’s likely some kind of announcement that allows the Leopards to move will come today or tomorrow.
UPDATE: Thursday, Jan 19, 2023 · 5:26:22 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Russia is now reportedly attacking south of Bakhmut in the area of Klishchiivka. In fact, Wagner Group commanders appear to have skipped the whole fighting bit before announcing this morning that they had captured the village (pre-war population around 400). However, before the tankies schedule another Great Victory dance, it’s worth noting that this has not actually happened.
What’s actually going on here can be better illustrated by moving the perspective around to the west of Klishchiivka and looking back toward the area of Russian occupation.
This is a recent (within the last month) look at the Klishchiivka area with the perspective lowered to show some of the local topography. The area west of the village is a series of hills; hills that have been heavily prepared with defensive trenches and reinforced positions, many of which are visible in the image. These positions have artillery range back over the town and into the fields to the east.
So far, not only has Russia not taken this location, but attempting to take this location is costing Wagner Group dearly. This is yet another example of Wagner’s claims getting way ahead of reality on the ground.
UPDATE: Thursday, Jan 19, 2023 · 4:45:11 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Announcements so far today:
- Denmark: 19 CAESAR self-propelled guns
- Estonia: FH-70 towed howitzers, D-30 howitzers, M2 anti-tank grenade launchers
- Latvia: 2 Mi-17 helicopters, Stinger missiles, UAVs, training
- Lithuania: 2 Mi-18 helicopters
- Poland: S-60 anti-aircraft guns and ammunition
- Sweden: 50 CV-90 combat vehicles, 12 Archer artillery systems
- UK: 600 Brimstone missiles
Several of these packages also include large amounts of ammunition, including extended range GMLRS rockets, and numerous additional systems.
Yesterday’s news from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz shutting down the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine unless a set of conditions are met—including the transfer of M1A2 Abrams tanks by the United States—is extraordinarily frustrating. For a number of reasons, from fuel to training to support, the Abrams is less suited to being deployed to Ukraine than the Leopard. In fact, in Pentagon briefings on Tuesday, it was made clear that the reason for not sending the Abrams “logistical and maintenance challenges,” not any concern over how Russia might react. To satisfy Scholz, President Joe Biden would have to send a weapon he knows would be difficult to deploy and that might not give Ukraine what it needs on the battlefield.
That’s not the only way that Scholz’s position harms the process of bringing Ukraine the assistance it needs. In addition to giving weight to widely derided decisions by Switzerland that were already standing in the way of deploying other weapons systems, any announcement of the U.S. shipping M1A2s at this point will be treated as a throwing a sop to Scholz; something that helps those forces wanting a stop to providing assistance to Ukraine at all. The tanks are right there. Countries are ready to send them. Ukraine could easily end up with a couple of Leopard-based tank companies even if Germany never parted with one of its own tanks. In the immortal words of Charlie Brown, aaugh.
But just because the Leopards are currently staying in their artificial and arbitrary cage doesn’t mean that other important weapons systems aren’t pouring in. Even as Germany is sitting on everyone’s hands, assistance packages are being announced. And one of those packages keeps getting better.
Last week, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the U.K. would be sending 15 Challenger 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine—enough to form a company of the formidable vehicles and an end to all the semantic wrangling required to maintain the idea that the West would not send Ukraine a “tank.” In fact, the announcement from Downing Street makes it clear that the U.K. isn’t just sending its tanks, it’s sending along a whole tank unit, including the armored vehicles needed to recover and repair the tanks in the field. It appears they’re going to pick up a company and shift it to Ukraine, complete with everything but the drivers and support staff.
In addition, the U.K. package includes more AS-90 self-propelled artillery systems, ”hundreds” of the precision guided GLMRS missiles (the family of M30 / M30A1 used with the M270), Starstreak air defense systems, “dozens” of unspecified UAVs, and as many as 200 additional armored transports.
As of Thursday morning, the U.K. is still adding on to its latest promises to Ukraine. The latest announcement includes 600 of the new “Brimstone 2” anti-tank missiles. This is the latest generation of such weapons carrying a tandem-shaped charge warhead designed to defeat spaced armor and even advanced reactive armors. The U.K. earlier supplied a limited number of the original Brimstone missiles to Ukraine (something that didn’t become known until about six months after it actually happened), but this is a big shipment of the latest tool for infantry attempting to take out armored vehicles.
When it comes to this round of assistance packages to Ukraine, Britannia rules.
However, Biden is still getting his bid in. U.S. assistance packages have come back to back over the last week, and it now looks like Ukraine is likely to receive, not 50, but 100 Bradley fighting vehicles. On top of that, the U.S. is sending another 100 Stryker vehicles to Ukraine. Considering just how many variants there are of this system, it’s worth asking which Stryker Ukraine will be getting. We don’t know yet, but we may learn that today.
Right now, no one is sending a signal that Biden is likely to send the M1A2 to Ukraine. But sticking one on a transport plane, flying it to Rzeszów in Poland, handing off the keys to a Ukrainian soldier, and letting him drive it across the border has to be tempting, if only so Biden could say, “There, asshat. Are you happy now?”
What was I saying again? Oh yeah, aaugh. But stay tuned today and tomorrow as these packages of assistance get finalized and announced. There are already signals that Ukraine will be receiving Swedish Archer and French CAESAR self-propelled guns in addition to those already announced AMX-10 yes-I-know-we’re-not-supposed-to-call-them-tanks.
There are still some big announcements to come and things could still change radically. We’ll see.
Meanwhile, The Telegraph is reporting that Poland may just decide to tell Scholz where he can put his permission slips.
Poland’s prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has suggested he could go at it alone as Warsaw grows tiresome of Germany’s refusals to sanction the delivery of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine.
“Permission is a secondary matter. We will either get it quickly or do what we see fit,” Mr Morawiecki said.
Is this just Morawiecki trying to place more pressure on Scholz, or is Poland serious about ignoring transfer agreements just because there happens to be an invading Russian army in a neighboring country? Probably.
But here’s one thing for sure: In 2022, the German defense industry set a record with nearly $10 billion in exports. That record is going to stand for a long, long time.
Though movements along the line have been very small in both directions, there has been some action up near Svatove, though you might not know it from looking at this map.
Back before Christmas, Ukraine moved against the line of villages west of the highway and appeared to have liberated them all in a series of fast strikes. However, Russia pushed back into the area principally along a kind of cross-country miniature salient that stretched out to the small village of Dzherelne. From there they began sending forces against Kolomyichykha and Stelmakhivka to the northwest. As best as I can determine at this point, all of this area is genuinely in dispute. Locations like Kolomyichykha appear to be unoccupied by Russia, Ukraine, or any civilians. They’ve ceased to be more than a georeference for forces that are skirmishing back and forth through muddy fields.
Russia also appears to have pushed back in the Nezhuryne area at the southern end of this map. I’ve marked the whole area in the middle as disputed, but the truth is that I have absolutely no news on it since the first couple of days of the new year.
At the north end of the map is where the most significant action took place. For weeks, Ukraine and Russia sparred across the highway between Novoselivske and Kuzemivka. Each side at times took portions of the town on the other side of the highway only to lose their grip in the next counterattack. However, shortly after the start of the year, Russia moved against Novoselivske and appeared to push Ukraine entirely out of the area, which would have been a significant setback to efforts in liberating Svatove. It would have been, except that earlier this week Ukraine surged back into Novoselivske in force, apparently delivering a decisive defeat to Russian forces in the area and leaving them well positioned to dominate this position. In theory, Russia still has Kuzemivka, but that may be more a matter of Ukraine hasn’t moved there yet than Russian forces still in occupation.
Everything along this front has been frustrating, and the casualties to both sides continue to be hideous. But things in this area may still move well before any new gear arrives on the scene.
Russia has become obsessed with adding more air defense systems in Moscow, and it’s going to great lengths to make it happen.
Be warned: If you go looking for pictures of Ukrainians celebrating Epiphany Day, not all the images are going to be as ethereal as the one below today’s title. Most of them will look like your local bowling league celebrating a Polar Bear Challenge.