UPDATE: Sunday, Jan 29, 2023 · 1:28:21 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
An extra reminder not to make too quick a judgement on either the cause or the scale of events now taking place in Iran. The combination of some highly visible explosions and the earlier earthquake along the northern border appears to have all panic meters set to 11 and fingers pointing in all directions.
Events may be much more limited, and the cause may be quite different, than the rapid spread of rumors and false claims would indicate. Right now, multiple sources seem to have confirmed an explosion at what is reportedly a “military factory” (but which could be anything) in Isfahan, and at at least one oil refinery in the northwest. Reports of other explosions appear to be single-source for now, and may not have taken place at all. We can’t be sure.
Just about everything else being heard at this point appears to be popping up whole cloth in social media. Hang in there for more reliable reports.
UPDATE: Sunday, Jan 29, 2023 · 1:12:59 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu emerged from a meeting about an hour ago promising “Our response to the terrorist attack in Jerusalem will be strong, swift and definitive. Whoever tries to harm us, we will harm them and anyone who helps them." This is in reference to a shooting that took place in Jerusalem synagogue on Friday in which at least seven people died and eleven others were wounded.
That statement is being used as evidence that Israel is behind the explosions in Iran, but this has not been confirmed.
Large explosions have been reported in at least seven Iranian cities on Saturday night. There are reports of gunfire, or anti-aircraft fire, of mystery planes or drones seen across the country, and even an earthquake that is reported to correspond to a large explosion in the same area.
The Iranian government is currently reporting that their air defense shot down drones attacking facilities near the city of Isfahan, but from the videos circulating it’s clear that some strikes — drones, planes, or missiles — have reached targets on the ground. That includes a strike on a reported strike on what was said to be a drone factory in Isfahan.
Speculation right now has pointed fingers at both Israel and the United States, as well as neighboring countries such as Turkey or Azerbaijan. On Friday, a gunman entered the Azerbaijani embassy in the Tehran, murdering at least one person. The incident has definitely compounded tensions between the two countries. Some of the cities affected are in the northwest of Iran, close to the Azerbaijan border. This is also in the Kurdish region where there has been recent unrest following the state murder of Mahsa Amini. All of which put together means … no one seems to know.
Iran has reportedly convened their national security council. Videos In multiple cities indicate both anti-aircraft fire and automatic weapon fire. Whether this indicates a fight in progress or sheer panic remains unclear.
There are multiple tweets indicating belief that this is a coup related to the recent protests that swept Iran. But at this point, it’s difficult to know which, if any, sources can be trusted. People are reportedly marching in Tehran and calling for the end of the conservative Islamic government even as aircraft streak overhead.
However, the choice of targets does not seem like the kind of thing any internal faction would put at the top of their list. So far, it does not seem to include military bases or the bases of Iran’s religious police. {update: It appears military bases have been hit in some locations. There are reports that protesters have been warned to stay back from military facilities, which is bolstering the coup theory — but this really seems like the scale of operation that requires a state actor. We’ll see.}
These explosions reportedly came moments before the recorded earthquake in northern Iran, but this could be either coincidence or false reporting.
Unclear if this explosion in Isfahan is actually tied to a fighter jet. Other reports have indicated the same explosion was due to a kamikaze drone. Right now, don’t consider anything solid except that there is something going on, and it appears to be widespread.
