Speculation right now has pointed fingers at both Israel and the United States, as well as neighboring countries such as Turkey or Azerbaijan. On Friday, a gunman entered the Azerbaijani embassy in the Tehran, murdering at least one person. The incident has definitely compounded tensions between the two countries. Some of the cities affected are in the northwest of Iran, close to the Azerbaijan border. This is also in the Kurdish region where there has been recent unrest following the state murder of Mahsa Amini. All of which put together means … no one seems to know.
Iran has reportedly convened their national security council. Videos In multiple cities indicate both anti-aircraft fire and automatic weapon fire. Whether this indicates a fight in progress or sheer panic remains unclear.
There are multiple tweets indicating belief that this is a coup related to the recent protests that swept Iran. But at this point, it’s difficult to know which, if any, sources can be trusted. People are reportedly marching in Tehran and calling for the end of the conservative Islamic government even as aircraft streak overhead.
However, the choice of targets does not seem like the kind of thing any internal faction would put at the top of their list. So far, it does not seem to include military bases or the bases of Iran’s religious police. {update: It appears military bases have been hit in some locations. There are reports that protesters have been warned to stay back from military facilities, which is bolstering the coup theory — but this really seems like the scale of operation that requires a state actor. We’ll see.}
These explosions reportedly came moments before the recorded earthquake in northern Iran, but this could be either coincidence or false reporting.
Unclear if this explosion in Isfahan is actually tied to a fighter jet. Other reports have indicated the same explosion was due to a kamikaze drone. Right now, don’t consider anything solid except that there is something going on, and it appears to be widespread.
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