The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● MS-Gov: It remains to be seen if Gov. Tate Reeves will face serious intra-party opposition in the August Republican primary, but one familiar foe sounds like he very much wants to give it a shot. Former Mississippi Supreme Court Chief Justice Bill Waller Jr., who lost the 2019 nomination to Reeves, says he's "strongly considering" a rematch ahead of the Feb. 1 filing deadline. A few other Magnolia State notables, as we'll discuss, also have made noises about a primary challenge, though no one has committed to anything yet.
Reeves last time beat Waller, who is the son and namesake of a Democratic governor from the 1970s, 54-46 after a runoff campaign where Reeves used his massive financial advantage to run ad after ad portraying his opponent as too liberal. Reeves in particular went after the former justice for supporting a gas tax to repair the state's damaged infrastructure and backing Medicaid expansion. Waller was pissed with the "misrepresentations of my positions" and refused to endorse his party's nominee in the general election, though that wasn't enough to stop Reeves from defeating Democratic foe Jim Hood 52-47 in the contest to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Phil Bryant.
Waller told Mississippi Today this week, "In a lot of ways, the issues I ran on in 2019 are more dire, more pronounced now. So many people in this state are hurting or frustrated, and the response [from the governor] just isn't there." Waller also said that, despite rumors he was thinking about campaigning as an independent, he'd seek the Republican nomination again if he ran.
Waller also brought up a major scandal that has roiled Mississippi involving the misuse of welfare money during the Bryant administration. Perhaps most notably, text messages show that Bryant advised retired NFL quarterback Brett Favre how to get the state's Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program to fund his proposed volleyball arena at the University of Southern Mississippi. Other messages show that Favre spoke to Reeves about getting state money for the project during the new governor's first weeks in office.
Reeves, writes Mississippi Today, also "faced a barrage of criticism from voters after his office abruptly fired the attorney who was investigating the breadth of the misspending." Waller argued that this scandal shows that "[c]orruption is so apparent and out of control, and most Mississippians I know are sick of it … Money intended for poverty-stricken children and others being diverted to cronies and personal friends is outrageous."
Waller isn't the only Republican who has talked about running. State House Speaker Philip Gunn reportedly has been thinking about taking on the governor for years, and he once again didn't rule out anything in November when he announced he would not seek re-election to the legislature. Secretary of State Michael Watson also confirmed just before Christmas that he was considering a bid for the top job. A runoff would take place if no one managed to win a majority of the vote in the first round of the primary.
So, why does Reeves have so many fellow Republicans at least considering taking him on? The incumbent, whom longtime political analyst Sam Hall once said "notoriously lacks strong people skills," has a long history of feuding with powerful members of his party including Gunn, and that very much hasn't changed since he won the governorship.
However, even Reeves' many intra-party critics acknowledge that he will have access to plenty of money. The governor himself has also positioned himself as a hard-right anti-abortion crusader, saying at his kickoff Tuesday, "We had the opportunity to accomplish what I believe to be the most significant win in the conservative movement in my lifetime. Mississippi led the way in overturning Roe v. Wade."
The only notable Democrat who has been seriously talked about in this dark red state is Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who once again didn't rule out the idea this week. "I can tell you this, whatever I do next in my career will continue to be focused on improving the lives of average Mississippians who can't write a $1,000 campaign check, and who need state officials with some real backbone to stand up for them, their families and their communities," said the commissioner.
The Downballot
● What a way to start the new year! On the first episode of season two of The Downballot, we're talking with Sara Garcia, the strategy and outreach manager at Crooked Media—home of Pod Save America—about everything her organization does to mobilize progressives and kick GOP ass. Sara tells us how Crooked arose to fill a void in the media landscape, how it not only informs listeners but also gives them tools to take action, and some of her favorite shows that she loves to recommend to folks.
Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also discuss the Republican shitshow currently unfolding in Congress—and starkly different outcomes in two state legislatures that just elected new House speakers via bipartisan coalitions; the landslide win for the good guys in a special election primary in Virginia; why George Santos faces serious legal trouble that will very likely end with his resignation; and the massive pushback from progressive groups and labor unions against Kathy Hochul's conservative pick to be New York's top judge.
New episodes of The Downballot come out every Thursday morning. You can subscribe on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern Time.
Governors
● IN-Gov: While we'll need to wait until Jan. 18 for campaign finance reports for all the 2024 hopefuls, GOP Sen. Mike Braun announced he raised $1.5 million during the final 40 days of 2022 and transferred that same amount from his Senate campaign. Braun, who has pledged not to self-fund, says he finished the year with $2.9 million on hand.
Businessman Eric Doden, who launched in 2021, also says he has $2.8 million available after bringing in a total of $3.4 million through the end of last year, though there aren't any other details yet to show if that includes his own money. The third declared Republican contender, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, has not revealed her new numbers yet, though she already had $2.5 million on hand at the end of June.
● KY-Gov: Campaign finance reports are in for the final quarter of 2022, and they show Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear taking in $647,000 and ending the year with $4.7 million on hand. The numbers for the Republicans facing off in the May primary are below:
- former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft: $516,000 raised, additional $32,000 self-funded, $230,000 cash-on-hand
- Attorney General Daniel Cameron: $259,000 raised, $712,000 cash-on-hand
- Somerset Mayor Alan Keck: $183,000 raised, additional $22,000 self-funded, $172,000 cash-on-hand
- Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles: $54,000 raised, $875,000 cash-on-hand
- Auditor Mike Harmon: $4,000 raised, $26,000 cash-on-hand
- Attorney Eric Deters: $3,000 raised, additional $1,000 self-funded, $6,000 cash-on-hand.
The candidate filing deadline is Friday, and Bluegrass State politicos are waiting to see if former Gov. Matt Bevin or any other big names jump in. However, while there's been some speculation that Papa John's founder John Schnatter could wage a late campaign, the Kentucky Lantern notes he's donated $2,000 to Craft.
Craft, for her part, has relatively little available because she spent $1 million during her opening quarter, which is far more than any of her intra-party rivals. The former ambassador hasn't done any significant self-funding yet, though she very much has the money available if she chooses to refill her war chest this way. Indeed, Craft and her husband, coal billionaire Joe Craft, last summer joined another wealthy CEO and co-purchased the Kentucky State Fair's grand prize country ham for a record $5 million.
Deters, finally, said last year he'd self-fund more than $1 million, though the suspended attorney has only thrown down $70,000 so far. Deters announced in June he was bolting the GOP to run as an independent, but he appears to have rejoined the Republican Party sometime before October, when he was charged with menacing behavior towards his nephew.
● LA-Gov: Republican Sen. John Kennedy announced Wednesday evening that he wouldn’t compete in this year’s contest to succeed termed-out Democratic incumbent John Bel Edwards as governor of Louisiana, a development that answers perhaps the biggest question hovering over this race. While Kennedy has constantly flirted with seeking the top job starting in 2003, when he waged an abortive run back when he was still a Democrat, he emailed supporters, “I have looked into my heart and decided to remain in the Senate and not to run for governor.”
The only two candidates who are currently competing in the October all-party primary are Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry and independent attorney Hunter Lundy, but Kennedy’s declaration means that it’s all but certain that two other statewide Republicans will announce very soon. Indeed, Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser made it clear last month he planned to take on Landry if the senator wouldn’t, saying, “If he doesn't, I have to run. Jeff is not a good person.”
State Treasurer John Schroder also said recently that if Kennedy stayed out, "I plan to announce and pursue the title of Governor in 2023.” Nungesser’s kickoff is set to coincide with his birthday on Tuesday, while Schroder’s is scheduled for two days later. Other Pelican State politicians may also say more about their plans now that they know they won’t need to go up against Kennedy.
Nungesser earlier on Wednesday also released an internal from Greg Rigamer, a longtime Louisiana consultant who has worked for both parties, that showed him doing well in a contest that did not include Kennedy. The numbers from BDPC find Nungesser deadlocked 23-23 with Democrat Shawn Wilson, who serves as the state’s secretary of transportation, with Landry just behind with 22%. The survey also finds Republican state Sen. Sharon Hewitt far back in fourth with 3% while Lundy and Schroder grab 2% each. Neither Wilson nor Hewitt are currently running, though the Democrat formed an exploratory committee last month.
Legislatures
● VA State Senate: We have less than a week to go before Tuesday's special election to succeed Republican Jen Kiggans, who gave up her state Senate seat after unseating Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in November, and new campaign finance reports show both candidates bringing in hefty amounts. Republican Kevin Adams outraised Democrat Aaron Rouse by a small $990,000 to $980,000 margin through Dec. 29, while Rouse enjoyed a $210,000 to $150,000 cash-on-hand advantage.
The special will take place under the old lines for the 7th District, a Virginia Beach-based constituency that Joe Biden won 54-44 but Republican Glenn Youngkin carried 52-48 in the 2021 governor's race.
Mayors and County Leaders
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Mayor Lori Lightfoot is airing a spot attacking one of her eight rivals, Rep. Chuy Garcia, as an ally of "crypto crooks" and "indicted pols" in what Politico says is the first negative TV ad from anyone ahead of the Feb. 28 nonpartisan primary. The commercial comes as AdImpact reports that the incumbent has reserved about $2.3 million on advertising, which represents 85% of the total that's been deployed so far.
Lightfoot's spot features animations of Garcia speaking with former crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, who is shown with an "INDICTED" sign hanging around his neck, as the narrator declares, "Chuy secretly talked with this crypto crook who stole his customer's life savings, then spent a fortune to re-elect Garcia." (Bankman-Fried, whom we don't believe has been directly attacked in a TV ad before now, is also depicted throwing up his hands before gold coins shower down on the congressman.) The ad goes on to connect Garcia to former Illinois state House Speaker Michael Madigan, who is awaiting trial for corruption.
Garcia's congressional campaign, the Chicago Tribune explained last month, received $2,900 in contributions from Bankman-Fried last June, while Bankman-Fried's PAC spent another $151,000 on fliers for the congressman's uncontested primary. Garcia's spokesperson said he donated the $2,900 to charity and argued he "has been a strong advocate for the regulation of speculative industries, including the crypto industry."
Two of Lightfoot's other opponents, former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, are also airing spots. Vallas' two ads (here and here) focus on crime and argue the current leadership is failing Chicago. Johnson's message, meanwhile, declares he has a plan to "improve public schools for all our kids" and increase public safety.
● Jacksonville, FL Mayor: The first negative TV ad of the March nonpartisan primary began over the holidays as Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis' PAC launched a commercial labeling his fellow Republican, City Councilmember LeAnna Gutierrez Cumber, as a "fake conservative."
AdImpact relays that this group, Building a Better Economy, has spent $720,000 so far on advertising, which is vastly more than the $110,000 that Cumber's allied PAC has deployed. The contest to succeed termed-out GOP incumbent Lenny Curry also includes another Republican city councilmember, Al Ferraro, as well as two Democrats: former local TV anchor Donna Deegan and state Sen. Audrey Gibson.
● Philadelphia, PA Mayor: The Philadelphia Inquirer's Anna Orso reports that former Mayor Michael Nutter, who served from 2008 to 2016, has told allies he'll consider launching a late bid for his old post, but that he hasn't made any moves to prepare for a May Democratic primary campaign. Nutter himself declined to say anything when Orso asked him for comment: The filing deadline is in March.
Nine notable Democrats are currently facing off to succeed termed-out incumbent Jim Kenney, and they have one big advantage that any new arrivals wouldn't get: Campaign donation limits reset at the start of each calendar year, so newcomers have missed out on the chance to take in contributions in 2022. Still, Orso notes that Nutter waited until February of 2007 before launching his successful first campaign, and he has more name recognition now than he did 16 years ago.
Anyone who does make the ballot also learned this week that they'll be able to bring in more money because one contender, former City Councilman Allan Domb, self-funded $250,000 on Dec. 30, which was the amount needed to trigger the city's "millionaire's amendment." As fellow Inquirer reporter Sean Collins Walsh explains, candidates may now raise $6,200 from individuals and $25,200 from PACs or corporations, which are both double the usual limits. He also writes that observers correctly anticipated that Domb would wait until the very end of the year in order to make sure that his opponents couldn't take advantage of the new limits in 2022.
Domb, though, is far from the biggest spender so far. That honor goes to For A Better Philadelphia PAC, which AdImpact says has spent or booked $680,000 in advertising to promote businessman Jeff Brown. Brown, who is the only candidate in the race who hasn't held elected office, himself has outspent Domb's campaign $300,000 to $160,000.
The field also includes state Rep. Amen Brown, former Judge Jimmy DeLeon, former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart, and four more former city council members: Derek Green, Helen Gym, Cherelle Parker, and Maria Quiñones Sánchez. It only takes a simple plurality to win the Democratic nomination, and the winner should have no trouble in the November general election.
