One of the most memorable moments of the first 2024 Republican debate in August was former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s takedown of tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy for siding with Russia over Ukraine in their ongoing war.
"Under your watch, you will make America less safe," she charged. "You have no foreign policy experience and it shows—it shows."
In the exchange, Haley proved to be both stylistically and substantively commanding. And while it was satisfying to watch her shred Ramaswamy, it was also difficult to imagine Haley's foreign policy chops becoming a definitive asset in a party more fixated on individual bluster than global mastery.
All of that seemed to be a reasonable analysis right up until last weekend, when the terrorist group Hamas launched an unthinkable attack on Israel, killing more than 1,000 civilians and indefinitely devastating any potential for peace or stability in the region.
It's exactly the kind of sobering circumstance that can move a back-burner issue in the U.S. to the fore for an indeterminate amount of time. And as Haley seeks to continue capitalizing on her momentum in the polls, global uncertainty gives her an opportunity to distinguish herself from the pack of other Republicans chasing former President Donald Trump for the nomination.
The goal for any serious Republican candidate right now is to make the GOP primary a two-person race with Trump as quickly as possible. Haley recently surpassed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place in the latest polling of New Hampshire and South Carolina.
The contrast between Haley's fluidity with discussing complex global affairs and someone like DeSantis calling Russia's attack on Ukraine a "territorial dispute" should further bolster her prospects in a state like New Hampshire. It could also make her the darling of hawkish anti-Trump donors, many of whom have fled DeSantis.
In fact, third-quarter fundraising totals showed Haley with $9.1 million cash on hand, while DeSantis, an early fundraising juggernaut, now has just $5 million in cash at his disposal. It's all a pittance compared to Trump's $37.5 million cash on hand, but the immediate goal for these Trump alternatives is to both outlast and crush their peers. Gaining a decisive edge in the donor primary hits both of those goals.
But among voters, the place Haley really needs a toe-hold in now is Iowa, where the state's evangelicals will get the first shot in the nation at defining who's viable moving forward.
DeSantis, who is initiating a $2 million ad buy in Iowa next month, has touted the six-week abortion ban he signed into law in the dark of night to woo Hawkeye State evangelicals. It's an issue the state's voters know well since popular GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds has also signed a six-week ban into law.
Haley's steadfast support of Israel and knowledge of the region is perhaps the one issue near and dear to the hearts of evangelicals on which she can rival DeSantis.
Just like nearly every 2024 Republican candidate, Haley has cynically used the harrowing scenes from Israel to score political points against President Joe Biden, though she is nowhere near the worst offender. (Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina repulsively accused Biden of having "blood on his hands.")
But Haley is also simply flexing her foreign policy muscle, touting her fluency on the topic, her familiarity with the region, and her connections to Israel.
Whether it will be enough to make a run at DeSantis in Iowa remains to be seen, but it's likely her best shot.