Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has knocked Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis out of second place in several recent early-state surveys of the 2024 Republican primary, suggesting she might have an avenue to make a run at the current front-runner, former President Donald Trump.
In the two latest New Hampshire surveys conducted by high-quality pollsters, Haley, who is also the former governor of South Carolina, slid into second while DeSantis dropped to third.
Citizen Awareness Project (Public Opinion Strategies, Sept. 28-Oct. 1)
- Donald Trump: 44%
- Nikki Haley: 17%
- Ron DeSantis: 10%
- Chris Christie: 8%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3%
- Tim Scott: 3%
Boston Globe/USA Today (Suffolk University, Sept. 28-Oct. 2)
- Trump: 49%
- Haley: 19%
- DeSantis: 10%
- Christie: 6%
- Ramaswamy: 4%
- Scott: 4%
Haley also overtook DeSantis for second in a pair of recent South Carolina surveys, which showed DeSantis in freefall. Public Opinion Strategies, a DeSantis campaign pollster, found Trump running first at 53%, Haley second at 17%, and DeSantis running third at 11%—down double digits from 24% in an early June survey. Similarly, a recent Winthrop University poll found Trump in first at 48%, Haley in second at 19%, and DeSantis in third at 12%—an 8-percentage-point drop since April.
Campaign Action
In Iowa, however, DeSantis remains in a relatively strong second place in the two most recent polls, with Trump at roughly 50%, DeSantis at roughly 20%, and Haley at roughly 10%. At this point, Iowa remains Haley’s biggest challenge since its evangelical leanings tend to favor someone like true believer Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina or DeSantis who, for instance, has signed a six-week abortion ban into law.
Nonetheless, Haley is on the move, notching solid performances in the first two Republican debates and attracting the donor attention she needs to remain viable in the contest. Haley, unlike her GOP rivals, also has a viable path to making a statement in successive early-state contests, rather than performing well in just one of them and then fading away.
In other words, if Haley could manage a surprising second-place finish in Iowa (even if it were a distant second), she could use that as a launch pad to an even stronger second-place finish in New Hampshire and South Carolina and start to define the GOP primary as a two-candidate race.
The problem for DeSantis, for instance, is that even if he placed a strong second in Iowa, he would have nowhere to go as he continues to lose steam in the critical states of New Hampshire and South Carolina. Given how high expectations were for DeSantis just six months ago, posting two third-place finishes would be exceedingly dismal and likely decisive. But let’s say he is able to hold on until Florida—he’d lose to Trump there too! DeSantis is currently running roughly 30 points or more behind Trump in every survey conducted since August.
Haley's bump in recent polling suggests she could secure second in several early states, which would continue to bolster her fundraising and set her apart from other 2024 GOP hopefuls. And as long as Haley has the money to support her campaign, she will stay in the race.
Team Trump has clearly clued into the Haley threat. Several weeks ago, Trump dubbed her “birdbrain” in a post on Truth Social, then his campaign further trolled Haley by leaving a bird cage and birdseed outside her hotel room (the juvenile antics never cease to amaze). On Thursday, Trump doubled down, complaining in another Truth Social post that Fox News had scrapped its DeSantis coverage and was now “pushing Nikki ‘Birdbrain’ Haley.”
“Now we have to focus on one of the most overrated people I know, Nikki,” Trump groused.
While it's difficult to see Haley toppling Trump in the primary, she might have the stamina to dog him for months on end. That's a good scenario for democracy if, as seems likely, Trump is still poised to win the Republican nomination. Haley has the political chops to land some blows against Trump on issues such as Ukraine, abortion, Jan. 6, and more. She's a strong communicator and, to date, the only Republican who appears to possess both the chops and a strategy to outlast her Republican rivals.
And who knows—if she hangs around long enough, a Trump conviction might actually shake up the trajectory of the race. Whatever one might think of Haley and her politics, at least she ain't Trump.
Either way, Haley battering away at Trump for months would demoralize soft Republicans, especially if he still manages to win the primary. And demoralizing wishy-washy GOP voters could conceivably deter them from voting in the general election—or maybe even motivate them to cast a protest vote in favor of Biden.
