Last week one of the Iranian proxies, the Houthies in Yemen, shot down a US Reaper drone over international waters. Don't think of the quadcopters slinging grenades in the Donbas , the Reaper is a $38 million dollar aircraft that can stay aloft for hours sucking up intel. It can also carry bombs, missiles, sidewinders…
Tuesday, Air Force F15's destroyed an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) armory in Syria in retaliation for Persian proxy attacks that have injured over 40 US Servicemen in Syria and Iraq. Saturday, the Air Force again hit the IRGC and Persian proxy units in Syria to suppress their continuing attacks on US troops.
The USG has been trying to suppress the forces leading toward a wider Middle Eastern war. Those forces all have the same name -- Iran. Iran will dominate the Middle East if the US can be displaced. The mullahs know that a wider war is not in their interest. There are contending power centers in Tehran and a weak, 84 year old Supreme Leader.
Do the Persians understand that in an election year in which Biden is being labeled as old and senescent that they are mistaken to think that the American President will avoid a ratcheting retaliation? Theirs is a government without experience in democratic politics or with close liaison in Washington. Some in Tehran don't know and don't care how far Biden can be pushed before a devastating counterstrike is triggered by Iranian misjudgments. They Are liable to miscalculate.
Now picture yourself in the NSC or as a Joint Staff planner thinking two or three steps ahead, scoping out how the US might retaliate against a significant, damaging Iranian attack or proxy provocation. Your goal would be to titrate a response that leads to sizable pain in Persia but not to a regional war. Insufficient pain the Iranians will just shrug off and the tit for tat blows would continue to escalate. Too much pain however could lead to Hispullah missiles over Tel Aviv, IRGC attacks on tankers in the Gulf, or even, though I doubt it, activation of IRGC sleeper cells in the West. What would you recommend for our NSC planner?
Now standing with Tehran is their new informal ally, Russia. Already trading arms (Iranian Shaheed drones have been pasting Ukraine for two years) Russia would go beyond its usual diplomatic support for Iran to direct military aid, probably intelligence help, cyber help too.
If you have been worried that sooner or later, Israel's Arab neighbors will pile on, don't lose sleep over it. Those that are able, don’t want to -- too much to lose. There are those that can't, for example Lebanon, and those which might want to – Syria, which have nothing to lose but no capacity to launch a war. But, Iranian proxies in Syria and Iraq have nothing to lose and big Iranian paychecks to earn.
Hispullah has the ability (in its armory 150,000 long range Iranian missiles) but has much to lose. Nasrullah, Hispullah’s leader, has tried to temporize, to talk loudly but step carefully, yet the range of fires from Lebanon into Israel has been growing steadily. Is he calculating how much force against Israel he must display to keep control of the Hispullah militia? Or, is Nasrullah losing control of the forces under him? At some point, Israel may decide on a more forceful response than than the recent few rounds of 175mm.
So far the Biden/Blinken play has been masterful, but they are only one side on a hexagonal board on which the number of sides (players) multiplies each week. Despite the coming election, Biden won't play wag the dog, he can better polish his cred by suppressing a wider ME war. So don't read Wag the Dog, better to read The Guns of August. August could be any month and miscalculation can be at any time. … Now lose sleep.
