UPDATE: Monday, Nov 20, 2023 · 5:45:28 PM +00:00
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Dem
I hope that we win big and that President Biden defeats Donald Trump by a big margin. However, the electoral college was only decided by 40,000 votes in 2020. And this was after Trump's intentional mismanagement of COVID but it was before the attempted coup. So, I am not sure that we will win by a large margin even though I hope we do!
UPDATE: Monday, Nov 20, 2023 · 5:27:04 PM +00:00
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Dem
From a comment by Prairiecrat:
"People need to go about ¾ the way down the survey’s cross-tabs:
www.nytimes.com/…
The question asked is: "And if Donald Trump were convicted and sentenced to prison but were still the Republican nominee, would you vote for:"
Here's what happens to the votes:
- AZ: Trump +5 to Biden +5 (10 pt shift)
- GA: Trump +6 to Biden +12 (18 pt shift)
- MI: Trump +5 to Biden +12 (17 pt shift)
- NV: Trump +11 to Biden +12 (23 pt shift)
- PA: Trump +4 to Biden +4 (8 pt shift)
- WI: Biden +2 to Biden +14 (12 pt shift)
That is, if Trump is the GOP nominee and is convicted and sentenced to prison, Biden beats him in a landslide."
The top line general election polls numbers from polls conducted before even the first election during either major party's primary has taken place are unreliable. There are some really strange views found below the top line numbers held by a majority of the electorate if these polls are to be believed, but from what I see in the polls and the news President Biden has to be considered the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.
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First, let's dispense with the nonsense that the top line numbers are set in stone and can be used to accurately predict the 2024 presidential election. There is a great amount of political turbulence now happening. The House Republicans put a strange, radical theonomist to be their unanimously elected speaker of the House of Representatives. House Republicans reveal their political party to be batshit crazy. I suspect that inflation will continue to come down and the economy will be better understood by voters next year. The White House and allies will be pushing back against the lies of the other side and the strange way that much of the mainstream media is choosing, once again, to cover Donald Trump. The radical nature of Trump's proposed agenda for a second term will be widely spread. A reminder of Trump's attempted coup and the insurrection will be given. I suspect a huge amount of money will be given to Super PACS to oppose Trump and remind voters of his lies and intentional mismanagement of COVID leading to 400,000 excess COVID deaths and the insurrection. A number of republicans will be speaking out against Donald Trump. And we will benefit from the genius of Jack Smith creating a prosecution that is meant for speed by choosing to only pursue an Indictment against Donald Trump. We should have a verdict in that trial before the general election. Even these polls admit this much.
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In addition, it has long been my view that the top line numbers from general election polls prior to even a single election in either major political party's primary are unreliable in general. "Republicans fall in line, democrats fall in love". Probably voters in both major political parties try to use these polls to get the more popular candidate replaced, but it is certainly true of Democratic Party voters and those on the left that polls and this time before the primary generally is to be used by some of us to try to scare the bejesus out of us, their fellow democrats, in hopes of convincing the majority to throw their preferred candidate overboard in place of their favored candidate despite being only a relatively small percentage of democrats and other voters on the left.
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Let's suppose all students and a third of 18-29 year olds who are supposedly progressive all favor the same candidate instead of Joe Biden. And let's suppose Arab Americans refuse to vote for President Biden and they want the same non Joe Biden candidate as the students and younger voters. This is at most a third of democrats and the rest of the party prefer President Biden. Certainly more democrats+ support President Biden than any other single candidate and almost certainly more than all other candidates combined. It would be irrational and irresponsible to replace the candidate preferred by the majority with a candidate supported by far fewer people in the circle of democrats+. Democratic Party Jesus crushes President Biden in any primary poll, but such a person doesn't exist. And those who oppose President Biden as the nominee have not themselves coalesced around any one other candidate.
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President Biden is running. If there were one candidate around whom the whole party coalesced and whom the whole party supported, then President Biden would not run for reelection. There is no such person. So, President Biden is running. Whoever wants to defeat President Biden will have to run an aggressive campaign that brutally attacks the president. That person is likely done in Democratic Party politics forever and they would likely lose. If that other person tried to run like the alternative candidates in the Republican Party's primary, then that person would lose just as the alternative Republican Party candidates are losing. You can't win by praising the presumptive nominee. The attacks would enrage supporters of the president and all realists and all Never Trump Republicans. They would help the president. You're not going to defeat the incumbent president in a primary in his political party.
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Eventually, reality will set in on the political novices, those on Earth 2.0, and the Uber ultra I am more progressive than you people. They will be faced with a binary outcome: help President Biden win reelection or enable Donald Trump to win the presidential election and eradicate our democracy and the rule of law. Others who consider themselves centrists or independents will face the same reality. A winning coalition of voters will realize that they like democracy, the other person will end our democracy and weaponize the Department of Justice and the entire executive branch and we will have a fascist dominating the federal government. The polls after both conventions will tell us where we are.
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Jennifer Rubin reminds us of this statement by Trump
.The Post just days later reported on Trump’s Univision appearance in which he uttered a bone-chilling threat: “If I happen to be president and I see somebody who’s doing well and beating me very badly, I say, ‘Go down and indict them.’ They’d be out of business,” Trump said. “They’d be out of the election.”
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She also points out that the media is gradually and grudgingly noting the gaffes that Trump has been committing.
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In recent speeches, Trump has incorrectly described Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as the leader of Turkey and falsely suggested Hungary shares a border with Russia. He has repeatedly referred to the Obama administration when he meant the Biden administration, and at one point he inaccurately suggested he’d beaten Obama — rather than Hillary Clinton — in the 2016 election.
Trump has also mispronounced “on purpose” as “on perfect” and “Marxist” as “markers,” and he has combined the names of Florida Democrat Andrew Gillum and Florida Republican Adam Putnam to get “Pullam.” At the end of one speech, he warned that the world must not slide into World War II.
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The New York Times reveals absurd beliefs found in one poll, but also that Trump is damaged if he is convicted
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The polls found that, for the most part, Mr. Trump is politically surviving the criminal charges against him before voting in the G.O.P. primary begins. He leads Mr. Biden by between 4 and 10 percentage points in five of the six battleground states surveyed. In a sixth state, Wisconsin, Mr. Biden had a slim lead. A majority of voters say Mr. Trump’s policies helped them personally. Roughly the same proportion of voters say they’ve been hurt by Mr. Biden’s policies.
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Huh? His mismanagement of COVID led to up to 400,000 unnecessary excess COVID deaths and made the economy worse . Inflation is lower in the United States and GDP growth is stronger in the United States than in the G7 . Donald Trump inherited an economy in which for 83 consecutive months (during which 16.1 million jobs were created starting at the nadir of the Great Depression in February of 2010) private sector jobs were created and an economy with an unemployment rate of 4.8% . And if "the voters" are going to give Donald Trump a pass on the economic collapse of the country due to COVID, then President Biden should certainly get one. President Biden inherited an economy with a unemployment rate that dropped .4% to 6.3% and a pandemic with vaccine distribution that was a mess and a pandemic that was not under control. During President Biden's administration, 14 million new jobs were created and we had the longest continuous period of sub 4 percent unemployment rate in FIFTY years . That's 4.5 million more jobs than were lost due to the pandemic and 800,000 manufacturing jobs were created . The GDP grew by 4.9% last quarter. Inflation has improved significantly but it is uneven . Inflation is the only major negative issue in this economy.
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Again, inflation has improved significantly but that improvement is uneven
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Consumer prices rose 3.2% in October compared to a year ago, cooling significantly from the previous month and exceeding economist expectations. The data indicates progress in the Federal Reserve's fight to reduce inflation.
Inflation has fallen significantly from a peak of about 9% last summer. But progress in the fight against rapid price increases had stalled in recent months.
Economists expected a decline in inflation last month largely due to a drop in gas prices as the busy summer travel season gave way to an autumn slowdown.
Indeed, prices for all types of gasoline fell by 5% in October compared to a year ago, the government report showed.
The U.S. economy's resilience, and consumer spending over the past year amid a decline of inflation, suggest that rapid price increases had resulted from the insufficient supply of goods and the disruption of the Russia-Ukraine war, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said Sunday on X.
"As these supply shocks fade, so does inflation, without a recession," Zandi said.
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Trump's mismanagement of the pandemic made the economy worse
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You don’t have to be an economist to know how the U.S. economy is doing today: It’s an utter shambles, with tens of millions of workers unable to find the work they need to get by, and with tens of millions of families facing extreme hardship and anxiety. These terrible conditions are mostly the result of the failure to manage and contain the COVID-19 outbreak, and the failure to appropriately respond in the economic policymaking realm.
President Trump, however, clearly wants voters to see the COVID-19 outbreak and fallout as nobody’s fault, and further wants to be graded on how the economy was doing pre-COVID-19. This is obviously absurd; the administration didn’t cause COVID-19, but it is responsible for the botched response to it.
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Yahoo points out that a conviction hurts Trump in the general election
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Asking registered voters who they would vote for in next year’s general election “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime” produces a similar (though smaller) shift. In that case, support for President Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds steady at 47%. But support for Trump falls by 3 points, from 41% to 38%, while the overall number of voters who say they're not sure (9%) or that they would not vote (6%) increases by 3 points.
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The Hill reveals that republican voters are untethered to reality
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Just over half of the Republicans in Thursday’s poll — 53 percent — said they believe the former president behaved appropriately on Jan. 6, 2021, and 52 percent said he behaved appropriately in repeatedly claiming the election was fraudulent.
Sixty-one percent of Republicans also said Trump exercised bad judgment on Jan. 6 but is not criminally liable for the attack on the Capitol, and three-quarters of Republicans said the charges against Trump are politically motivated.
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CNN accurately describes Trump's plans if he wins as radical
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A massive operation to detain and deport undocumented immigrants.
A purge of the federal workforce of anyone deemed disloyal.
Wielding the power of federal law enforcement against political enemies.
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Meanwhile the New York Times could not make it more innocuous sounding if they tried
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How the New York Times describes Trump's plans for his next term if he wins
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Trump and Allies Forge Plans to Increase Presidential Power in 2025
The former president and his backers aim to strengthen the power of the White House and limit the independence of federal agencies.
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