Ukraine launched a large drone attack against targets in eastern Crimea. Naturally Russia claims to have shot them all down.
An interesting thread on what it will take to knock out the Kerch Bridge.
The gist is that to destroy the bridge, you have to take out the piers. Hitting the bridge deck isn’t enough. And even if Ukraine acquired Taurus cruise missiles from Germany, that might not be sufficient to do the job. The best approach is to hit the bridge deck repeatedly with ATACMS (with unitary warheads), Storm Shadow and Taurus missiles, assuming Germany eventually provides them.
The second successful attack was in July 2023, when Ukraine was able to detonate a sea drone packed with explosives underneath a span running close to the water. It too did damage to the bridge deck, but the damage was again repaired pretty quickly. 9/
In order to permanently disable or destroy the bridge, Ukrainian forces would need to deliver a devastating knockout blow to one of the massive concrete & steel piers that rise out of the water and support the road and rail decks. Turns out that's really hard to do. 10/
Sea drones aren't up to the task. They deliver an unconfined air blast that disperses their explosive energy in all directions. A relatively small percentage actually reaches the bridge structure. Enough to damage the deck, but not bring down a pier. 11/
But missiles aren't the silver bullet many make them out to be. First, the ~20 ATACMS missiles Washington gave Kyiv are the wrong type: they're armed with cluster munitions (about 950 bomblets) that are great against many mil targets but ineffective against infrastructure. 12/
There's a version of the ATACMS that carry a single warhead that we haven't given Ukraine yet. But even these probably don't have the explosive power to fatally damage one or more piers. Those piers are truly massive, heavily reinforced, and pretty robust. 13/
In order to deliver a crippling blow, they'd have to get a massive salvo of missiles past Russian defenses to repeatedly hit weak points where the piers support the deck. That's a small target for a missile that on average lands 50% of its shots within 30 feet of its target. 14/
ATACMS just don't pack enough punch. But German Taurus missiles might work. These bunker busters were designed to destroy hardened infrastructure with a two-stage warhead that could penetrate deeper into the bridge's main support columns. If they can get past defenses… 15/
Unfortunately Berlin won't give the Taurus to Ukraine, likely out of fear of escalation. But that fear is overblown, based on Putin's past actions. 16/
In order to permanently destroy the bridge, Ukraine would need an engineered demolition, carefully placing explosive charges on key weak spots throughout. They don't have the access to pull this off, but it's probably the first thing they'll do when they retake Crimea. 17/
So if destroying the bridge is out of reach for now, what is the best we can hope for? Ukraine's allies must provide cruise missiles (ATACMS, Taurus, Storm Shadows) with unitary warheads in FAR greater quantities than we have so far. It's a numbers game. 18/
Armed with enough missiles, Ukraine could regularly strike the more vulnerable bridge deck, taking the bridge out of service temporarily until Russian crews repair it. Then they strike it again. And again. Constant strikes would seriously hinder Russian mil logistics in UKR. 19/
The good news for the Russians is that it was over with quickly. But who takes video of their own disastrous assault and then posts it online?
The repair facility is gonna need a lot of repairs.
Ammo Dump Jesus blesses this bavovna.
This is what’s known as a catastrophic detonation.
This is what’s known as multiple catastrophic detonations.
Judging by the small holes in the covering of one of the trucks, this is a HIMARS hit with tungsten shrapnel.
WARNING: The video shows a lot of dead Russians.
Sucks when you can’t even enjoy a bong hit in peace.
WARNING: Video shows Russian soldier taking a direct hit from a drone.
Cluster munitions take a heavy toll on Russian infantry.
Good riddance.
I’m sure they sent Russia a sternly worded letter.
Romanians must be good at trolling. Message to Russia: Don’t fuck with us. We’ve got HIMARS too.
I think I can agree with each of these.
Fly the frightening skies of Russia.
Don’t mess with Mom.
They achieved a great victory over a school of fish.
Hi guys. I want to join you. I’ve been rooting for you guys all along. I swear. Slava Ukraini.
Hell of a long way to travel just to end up as cannon fodder.
In the event of an air raid, bend over, stick head between legs, kiss ass goodbye.
A strike team of Ukrainian mice attack the inner workings of a Russian armored vehicle.
Those bombers could have come in handy today. Ukraine did this as part of an agreement with the United States. So we are at least morally obligated to stand by them through this war.
Better options than writing a letter:
1. Surrender to Ukrainian troops.
2. Do a Google search on “How to frag your sadistic commander”
3. See No. 1 above.
Wow, a track suit! What a stereotypical fabulous gift!
The Christmas spirit lives in Lviv.
Standing guard against marauding masses of mice.
