A trio of progressive groups have published a poll from the Democratic firm Normington Petts arguing that, while Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego can win the general election for Arizona’s Senate seat whether or not Democrat-turned-independent Kyrsten Sinema runs, the incumbent would disproportionately hurt Gallego while still falling far short of victory.
The survey, which was conducted for Progress Arizona, LUCHA, and Replace Sinema PAC, tests out two different potential Republican candidates: conspiracy theorist Kari Lake, who claims she won the 2022 race for governor, and former Gov. Doug Ducey:
Gallego (D): 50, Lake (R): 45
Gallego (D): 36, Lake (R): 36, Sinema (I-inc): 24
Gallego (D): 37, Ducey (R): 31, Sinema (I-inc): 27
The release did not include numbers testing a two-way matchup between Gallego and Ducey. Sinema has yet to commit to running again, and the poll’s sponsors argue she couldn’t win. Ducey himself has said he won’t run, but Lake reportedly is considering the idea.
Plenty of Republican strategists, though, recognize that election deniers like Lake have been toxic to the party’s chances, and Politico reports that freshman Rep. Juan Ciscomani continues to remain a popular choice for this crowd: There’s no word, though, if Ciscomani himself is interested. The story also says that unnamed consultants are trying to deter one of those disastrous candidates of 2022, Senate nominee Blake Masters, from waging another bid for the upper chamber by encouraging him to run for a safely red House seat instead.
However, while Politico relays that there are rumors that far-right Rep. Paul Gosar could retire from his 9th District and thus give Masters a landing spot, Gosar himself responded, “No, I’m not leaving. I still think I’d like to see this majority go to the White House and the Senate.” No matter what, Politico adds that Republicans doubt that both Masters and Lake would run against each other for Senate.