Fresh off of their victories in November that gave them full control over state government for the first time in eight years, Minnesota Democrats have jump-started the movement to elect the president according to the popular vote by taking up a bill to add the state's 10 Electoral College votes to the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.
Members of this compact have agreed to give their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote regardless of the results in their own state, but only if jurisdictions with a combined majority of 270 electoral votes join. Currently, 15 states and the District of Columbia, which together have a collective 195 electoral votes, have entered the agreement, meaning that another 75 are required to join before it can activate.
Minnesota Democrats recently advanced the legislation in committee in both the state Senate and state House, and it could receive a full floor vote in both chambers soon. Democrats' 34-33 Senate majority and 70-64 edge in the House give them little room for defections since every Republican will likely oppose it, as has been the case since Donald Trump's 2016 victory despite losing the popular vote further polarized the issue along partisan lines. Nonetheless, top Democrats such as Secretary of State Steve Simon support the measure.
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Trump's win helped push five Democratic-run states with 33 electoral votes to join the compact during his tenure, while Democrats came up just short in three more states with another 23 electoral votes. And although the compact hasn't generated as much attention since 2020, the movement hasn't gone away. While Joe Biden won the Electoral College 306-232 and the popular vote 51-47, his victory was, in fact, extremely narrow: His margin in the "tipping-point state" of Wisconsin, which allowed him to hit 270 electoral votes, was just 0.6%. A very small shift could therefore have allowed Trump to once again prevail despite losing the popular vote.
Following a better-than-expected midterm for Democrats in 2022, there's now a challenging but real path for the compact to come into effect as soon as 2028, as shown on the cartogram at the top of this post (click here to enlarge). But barring an unexpected softening of Republican opposition, that path depends heavily on how well Democrats do in next year's presidential race and the following 2026 midterms.
If Minnesota joins the compact, then only 65 more electoral votes would be needed. Democrats could put the agreement into effect if they gain power in some combination of the states below, whose electoral votes total 82:
- Arizona (11 electoral votes): Flip both legislative chambers by gaining two seats in each.
- Maine (4): Persuade House Democrats who voted against the measure the last time it came up to switch sides, or win a larger majority.
- Michigan (15): Use their newly won control over state government to pass it.
- Nevada (6): Flip one Senate seat to be able to override the GOP governor's veto.
- New Hampshire (4): Flip the governor's office and both legislative chambers by gaining three Senate seats and two House seats.
- Pennsylvania (19): Flip the Senate by gaining three seats.
- Virginia (13): Flip the House by gaining three seats and the open governor's office in 2025.
- Wisconsin (10): Flip the state Supreme Court on April 4, then flip both legislative chambers by 2026 if the court strikes down the GOP's gerrymanders and replaces them with nonpartisan maps.
While the path to 270 would require Democrats to do well enough that they gain full power in several of these states—and don't subsequently hand it back to Republicans to prevent repeal there and elsewhere—it could happen, especially if Democrats win the presidency next year and once again minimize their midterm losses two years later. Alternately, even if Republicans narrowly prevail in 2024, especially if they once again do so in the Electoral College despite a popular vote loss, a 2026 Democratic midterm wave like the one in 2018 could help put the compact over the top.
Minnesota can be the 16th state to join National Popular Vote compact—so we can elect the President by popular vote. Call your state legislators at 833-942-1345 and tell them to VOTE YES.
