A few times a day, I get a call from a Democrat who is panicked that both of the two hyper-conservative candidates for Supreme Court will advance from the primary on February 21. Here’s why that won’t happen—IF we VOTE.
The number of Democrats who say they plan to vote on February 21 is equal to the number of Republicans. So imagine a pizza cut into two pieces—one right-wing, one progressive. That’s the electorate.
Now imagine each of the two conservative candidates gets a piece of the conservative side, and each of the progressives gets a piece of the other side. I’m going to use the shorthand “Republicans” and “Democrats” in this thread, even though the race is officially non-partisan.
Suppose that on the right-wing side, one candidate beats the other by a healthy margin. On the progressive side, it’s a nearly perfect split. In this scenario, R1 advances, and either D1 or D2 advances—whoever won, even by a hair.
The same thing would be true if it went the other way. As you can see, D1 is bigger than R1 or R2, so D1 definitely advances to the general election on April 4. In this picture, the Republican candidates are duking it out to be the second general-election candidate.
This math would still be true even if both sides were very close—as long as Democratic turnout is at least as high as Republican turnout, AND all the Dems are voting for Dems rather than crossing over to Republican-backed candidates.
So that leads to our goal: make sure that Democratic turnout in the primary is high and that none of the Democrats vote for the Republican candidates.
Because two Rs could advance only if the R side is bigger than the D side AND both sides are evenly split.
And again—the R side gets bigger only if R turnout is higher than D and/or if Ds vote for Rs. So that’s what WisDems is focused on, from now until February 21: turning out Dems, and making sure they don’t vote for Rs!
Last weekend, we rallied our volunteers and reached Democratic voters statewide. Here are volunteers from Madison, Green Bay, and Sussex! Don’t worry if you missed it—we’ll be doing a ton of organizing all the way through February 21. Sign up here.
It’s not just the Supreme Court race on the ballot this spring, by the way. It’s also local elections all over Wisconsin and a special election for State Senate District 8, where Jodi Habush Sinykin is the Democratic nominee and can avert a GOP supermajority. She’s doing great work!
Make sure you’re registered and ready to vote! If you or anyone you know encounters a problem, call our voter protection hotline at 608-336-3232 (608-DEM-3232).
We need all hands on deck to call voters, educate them about the race, and ensure that they cast ballots. Let’s use every precious minute. Sign up here to phonebank or knock on some doors: wisdems.org/volunteer
This primary is absolutely critical. So don’t just vote. Volunteer. And, if you have some dough to help, chip in. You can donate at this link. And then share this thread to help spread the word!
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