WI-03: Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District was one of several House seats that major Democratic groups abandoned last year only to see the final result turn out to be teeth-gnashingly close, and now local Democrats are weighing that history as they consider whether to tackle this seat once more.
State Sen. Brad Pfaff, who lost that open-seat contest to Republican Derrick Van Orden by a 52-48 margin, hasn't spoken publicly about running again, but the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that a source close to Pfaff says the lawmaker's decision will depend on whether organizations like the DCCC demonstrate a commitment to winning back the district in 2024. After longtime Rep. Ron Kind announced his retirement, the D-Trip wound up spending nothing at all to defend the 3rd, as did their allies at the House Majority PAC, which canceled $1.7 million in TV ad bookings at the end of October.
It's not entirely clear why the Democratic heavyweights largely stayed out (one group, Center Forward, did make a late $600,000 expenditure on Pfaff's behalf), but the decision likely reflected a combination of borked polling, fears that typical midterm patterns would hold sway, the fact that there was no incumbent to protect, and the district’s rural nature and long-term rightward trend. (Donald Trump carried the 3rd 52-47; in 2012, Barack Obama won its very similar predecessor 55-44.) There may have been a knock-on effect as well, since the DCCC left Pfaff off of its "Red to Blue" list of top districts and he was subsequently outraised by a giant $6.3 million to $1.9 million margin—a rare example of a Democrat in a competitive race falling short financially in 2022.
Despite last year’s outcome, Pfaff's two main primary opponents are also in the mix for another try: Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke says she's "strongly considering" a second bid, while former CIA officer Deb McGrath hasn't ruled it out, though both added they're currently focused on helping progressive Judge Janet Protasiewicz win her bid for the Wisconsin Supreme Court on April 4. In last month’s primary, Protasiewicz and another liberal candidate combined for approximately 56% of the vote in the 3rd District while two conservatives collectively took just 44%, according to Daily Kos Elections calculations.