Putin's decree on spring conscription, despite the increase in the number of conscripts, will only worsen Russia's situation at the front. Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.
- Russia detained Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich on suspicion of "espionage" and placed him under arrest until May 29, according to a Moscow court. He is the first US journalist detained by Russia on spying claims since the Cold War.
- The WSJ “vehemently denies" the Kremlin's allegations and is seeking his release. The White House condemned the arrest and the US State Department is in touch with Russia on the matter.
- Finland cleared its final hurdle for joining NATO, as Turkey's parliament approved its accession. The Nordic country abandoned its long-held non-aligned status in response to Russia's invasion.
- On the ground in Ukraine, officials reported late-night explosions in Zaporizhzhia, and the top US general says the battle for Bakhmut has turned into a "slaughter-fest" for Russian troops.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition.
- Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations.
- Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory.
- Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Bakhmut area.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline.
- Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes.
- Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.
- Russian officials continue to send Ukrainian children to camps in Russia.
www.understandingwar.org/...
A common yardstick to convey the language of uncertainty was developed by Defence Intelligence in the early 2000s, and an updated form is now in use across the UK intelligence assessment community. This ensures that government officials understand how likely it is that an event will or did occur. The yardstick splits the probability scale into seven distinct numerical ranges. Terms are assigned to each probability range. The yardstick was informed by academic research and corresponds to the average reader’s understanding of each term. The scale is not continuous to avoid a false impression of accuracy. www.gov.uk/...
The Ukrainian Air Force has confirmed that it’s now using the U.S.-supplied Joint Direct Attack Munition, or JDAM, air-launched precision-guided weapon against Russian forces in the country. The announcement follows confirmation from U.S. officials that the long-range JDAM-ER version of the weapon had been supplied to Ukraine, providing the ability to hit targets up to 45 miles away with considerable destructive power, the implications of which The War Zone has previously explored in detail.
“We use JDAM bombs,” Yuriy Ignat, the spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, told Ukrainian television today. “These are Western-style bombs with which our air force successfully strikes important targets. These bombs are slightly less powerful, but extremely accurate. I would like to have more such bombs for success at the front,” Ignat added.
The meaning behind the JDAMs being “slightly less powerful” is unclear. However, it may suggest that the weapons supplied to Ukraine are based on 1,000-pound or even 500-pound bomb bodies, rather than the larger 2,000-pound bombs with which they are also compatible. So far, there are no details of which versions of the bomb are used by Ukraine, with no photographic evidence of the weapons in use, or of any recovered wreckage that could provide indications of this.
www.thedrive.com/...
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1— Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and continue offensive operations into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on March 31. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove), Makiivka (22km northwest of Kreminna), Kreminna itself, Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna), Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna), Hryhorivka (9km south of Kreminna), Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna) and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna).[18] Ukraine’s Luhansk Oblast Military Administration noted on March 31 that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in 20 skirmishes in this direction over the past day.[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks towards Stelmakhivka and Nevske (20km northwest of Kreminna).[20] Former Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Interior Minister Vitaly Kiselev posted footage reportedly of snipers of the 3rd Separate Special Purpose (Spetsnaz) Brigade of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) operating near Kreminna.[21] Circulation of footage of the 3rd Spetsnaz Brigade over the past few may suggest they deployed to this area more recently and are helping support exhausted Western Military District (WMD) elements that have been committed to decisive operations in this area since the beginning of 2023.[22] Footage released by Ukrainian soldiers in late February 2023 shows the aftermath of Ukrainian troops repelling an attack by the 237th Guards Airborne Regiment (76th Guards Air Assault Division) near Kreminna.[23] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces (Central Military District) defeated Ukrainian troops near Dibrova.[24]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations in and around Bakhmut and have made gains within the city as of March 31. Geolocated footage posted on March 31 shows a Wagner Group flag on a building in the center of Bakhmut within a few blocks (within 400 meters) of the city administration building.[25] Russian milbloggers claimed that Wagner forces continued attacks in northern and southern Bakhmut and unsuccessfully attempted to attack westwards towards Khromove.[26] One prominent milblogger noted that Wagner is failing to make significant progress in Bakhmut and that all attacks in and around the city are without success.[27] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin stated that there are no signs that Ukrainian troops are leaving Bakhmut, claimed that Wagner does not report out on the full extent of its own gains in Bakhmut, and called for conventional Russian forces around Bakhmut to continue to hold the flanks and support Wagner’s operations within the city.[28] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops continued storming the city of Bakhmut and conducted additional unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Bakhmut near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (12km northwest).[29]
www.understandingwar.org/...
www.understandingwar.org/…
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command stated on March 31 that Russian forces in this area are spreading themselves out and dispersing troops and equipment to avoid presenting targets.[41] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command also noted that Ukrainian aviation and missile and artillery units hit two Russian concentration areas over the last day.[42] Geolocated footage posted on March 30 shows a Ukrainian strike against a Russian electronic warfare (EW) system in Nova Kakhovka.[43] Russian sources claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in mutual shelling across the Dnipro River and that Ukrainian forces shelled Russian positions on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.[44]
www.understandingwar.org/...
www.understandingwar.org/...
Patrushev: “The Japan Self-Defense Forces are becoming a full-fledged army capable of conducting offensive operations. This has already been legally confirmed by Japanese law, which is actually a gross violation of one of the most important outcomes of World War II”
Swivel-eyed. Patrushev: “The collapse of the European Union is just around the corner. Of course, Europeans will not tolerate this supranational superstructure, which not only does not justify itself, but also pushes the Old World to open conflict with our country”
This is the NSA of Russia. America is a “patchwork blanket, which can easily disperse at the seams. Let's say, as it was originally, they will be divided into North & South … no one can rule out that the South will move towards Mexico, whose land the Americans seized in 1848…”
Patrushev: “this is just one of many examples of systematic attacks on the independence of Latin American countries. There is no doubt that sooner or later the southern neighbors of the United States will regain the territories stolen from them.”
Patrushev: “U.S. elites… have never associated themselves with the American people. Their projects such as BLM … and the general planting of transgender theories are aimed at the spiritual degradation of the population already in a state of apathy”
I do wonder if Russian leaders are so deep into their own propaganda that they are no longer capable of effective strategy. They sacked their first sensible commander, frittered away the first wave of mobilisation and seem unable to grasp & adjust to their vulnerabilities.
I can see the case for war optimism in 2022: Russia’s opposition was locked away, war chest was considerable and West could be perceived as weak and disunited. To have basically the same worldview, untouched by reality, in March 2023 is an indication of total intellectual rot.
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